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Abel to Yzerman

GDT - Game #77: Red Wings host Blues (7:30)

by Jeff OKWingnut on 04/02/09 at 09:45 AM ET
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It would be fair to say that DET face the proverbial “Gordian Knot” tonight when they host the Blues.  A quick check of the W.C. standings make the dilemna readily apparent.  DET will, in all likelihood, finish 2nd in Conference. ANA currently sit 7th in Conference with 84 pts. NSH is 8th with 84 pts, but one fewer win.  STL are 9th with 83 pts.  Wings fan have been praying for months that the team develop the intensity of play they displayed during last years run to the Cup.  Wings fan, as well as Coach Babcock, also realize the less travel the team has to endure during the playoffs, the better the chances for success. 

Also noteworthy is DET’s success against the Blues this year, and Mason in particular (i.e. perhaps STL are a more “desirable” 1st round matchup).  STL are looking for their first win in six meetings this season against DET.  Mason is 0-3-2 with a 3.31 GAA in seven career appearances at the JLA, and has lost five straight to Detroit with a 4.21 GAA in that time.

STL are coming off a 3-1 loss in CHI last night, in which they managed just 7 SOG in the first 40 mins.  DET are looking to avoid their longest home losing streak of the season and seeking their first season sweep of STL since 2002-03; or are they?

Standings:

DET:  76 g/p 49 18 9 107 pts (2 in Conf., 1 in Central), 279 gf, 225 ga, Last 10 6-3-1, Streak Lost 2

STL:  77 g/p 37 31 9 83 pts (9 in Conf, 5 in Central), 215 gf, 222 ga, Last 10 6-3-1, Streak Lost 1

Stats (rank):

DET:  704 point% (3), 3.59 g/g (1), 2.92 ga/g (20), 1.25 5-5 f/a (3), 25.5 pp (1) ,77.6 pk (26), 36.4 s/g (1), 27.8 sa/g (3), 55.4 fo% (1).

STL:  .539 point% (19), 2.71 g/g (21), 2.80 ga/g (12), 0.89 5-5 f/a (22), 20.5 pp (8), 83.4 pk (5) 27.9 s/g (28), 28.6 sa/g (7), 49.0 fo% (20).

Player Stats:
DET Skaters:
POS Player GP G A PTS +/-
C Pavel Datsyuk 75 30 61 91 34
C Henrik Zetterberg 71 30 38 68 13
RW Marian Hossa 70 37 29 66 21
D Brian Rafalski 75 10 47 57 20
RW Johan Franzen 65 32 24 56 20
RW Jiri Hudler 76 22 32 54 6
D Nicklas Lidstrom 73 13 40 53 28
D Niklas Kronwall 74 4 43 47 2
RW Mikael Samuelsson 75 19 21 40 5
RW Daniel Cleary 68 14 24 38 4
C Valtteri Filppula 74 11 27 38 13
RW Tomas Holmstrom 47 14 18 32 19
RW Tomas Kopecky 73 6 13 19 -5
C Kris Draper 75 7 10 17 -12
D Brett Lebda 59 6 10 16 9
D Brad Stuart 61 1 13 14 0
D Andreas Lilja 60 2 11 13 13
LW Kirk Maltby 72 5 6 11 -8
LW * Ville Leino 13 5 4 9 5
D Derek Meech 38 2 5 7 -12
D Jonathan Ericsson 13 1 2 3 2
RW Aaron Downey 4 1 1 2 0
C Darren Helm 16 0 1 1 -7
RW Darren McCarty 13 1 0 1 -2
LW Justin Abdelkader 2 0 0 0 0
D Chris Chelios 24 0 0 0 2

DET Goalies:
Player GPI W L OT GAA PCT
Chris Osgood 42 24 8 7 3.17 .884
Ty Conklin 38 25 9 2 2.42 .912

STL Skaters:
POS Player GP G A PTS +/-
RW Brad Boyes 77 30 33 63 -21
LW David Perron 76 14 35 49 12
RW David Backes 77 26 21 47 -7
C * Patrik Berglund 71 21 26 47 19
LW Keith Tkachuk 74 22 20 42 -12
C Andy McDonald 41 13 25 38 -14
C * T.J. Oshie 52 13 23 36 15
D Carlo Colaiacovo 68 3 26 29 1
C Alexander Steen 76 8 17 25 -13
C Jay McClement 77 12 12 24 -9
RW B.J. Crombeen 76 10 10 20 -10
D Barret Jackman 77 4 15 19 -20
LW Brad Winchester 59 12 7 19 -4
D Jeff Woywitka 60 3 14 17 3
LW Paul Kariya 11 2 13 15 1
D Roman Polak 64 1 14 15 -16
C Yan Stastny 34 3 4 7 -14
D Eric Brewer 28 1 5 6 -14
D Jay McKee 64 1 5 6 9
D Mike Weaver 53 0 6 6 -1
RW Dan Hinote 46 1 3 4 -5
RW Cam Janssen 56 1 3 4 -5
LW Steve Regier 8 3 1 4 -1
D Steve Wagner 22 2 2 4 -5
C * Cam Paddock 16 2 1 3 -4
D * Tyson Strachan 30 0 3 3 8
LW David Koci 32 1 1 2 1
C * Chris Porter 6 1 1 2 -1
LW D.J. King 1 0 1 1 0
D * Alex Pietrangelo 8 0 1 1 0
C Trent Whitfield 3 0 1 1 2
D * Jonas Junland 1 0 0 0 0
D Andy Wozniewski 1 0 0 0 0

STL Goalies:
Player GPI W L OT GAA PCT
Chris Mason 52 23 21 6 2.43 .916
Manny Legace 29 18 13 9 3.18 .885
Ben Bishop 6 1 1 1 2.94 .893

Injury Report:
DET:
Brian Rafalski (D) Groin (Day to day)
Andreas Lilja (D) Concussion (Sidelined indefinitely)

STL:
Eric Brewer (D) Back surgery (Remainder of regular season)
Paul Kariya (LW) Hip surgery (Remainder of regular season)
D.J. King (LW) Shoulder surgery (Remainder of regular season)
Erik Johnson (D) Right knee surgery (Remainder of regular season)

Hot and Not:
DET: HOT:
Nicklas Lidstrom (D) 5 pts in last 5 GP
Johan Franzen (LW/C) 12 pts in last 7 GP
Pavel Datsyuk (C/LW) 12 pts in last 9 GP
Ty Conklin (G) 1-1-0, 1.91, .921 in last 2 GPI

DET: NOT HOT:
Brad Stuart (D) 0 pts in last 4 GP
Dan Cleary (LW/RW) 0 pts in last 4 GP
Jiri Hudler (RW/LW) 0 pts in last 3 GP
Henrik Zetterberg (C) 1 pts in last 4 GP
Chris Osgood (G) 0-2-0, 3.78, .871 in last 3 GPI

STL: HOT:
Patrik Berglund (C) 3 pts in last 2 GP
David Perron (RW/LW) 7 pts in last 5 GP
T.J. Oshie (C/W) 11 pts in last 10 GP
Chris Mason (G) 5-2-1, 1.98, .927 in last 8 GPI

Jeff Sagarin NHL Ratings, from USAToday.com:

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .25 goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .57 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .42 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .25 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.

NHL 2008-2009 through games of 2009 April 1 Wednesday
HOME ADVANTAGE=  0.36       RATING   W   L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR
3 Detroit Red Wings     =  4.75   49 27   4.00(  15)  13   9 |  26 14 |  4.76   2 |  4.75   3
15 St. Louis Blues       =  3.98   37 40   4.06(  1)  11 18 |  17 26 |  3.96   17 |  4.00   17

The AccuScore Game Forecast from The Sporting News:

St. Louis Blues 2.9
Detroit Red Wings 3.8

Team Win Percent Average Score Big Win Close Win
St. Louis Blues 35.9% 2.9 8.5% 18.8%
Detroit Red Wings 64.1% 3.8 26.0% 24.3%

Fantasy Spotlight G A PTS
Andy McDonald 0.29 0.44 0.73
Pavel Datsyuk 0.34 0.64 0.98

Probability of a Fight: 27.7%

Khan! had line combinations the Wings utilized during Wednesday practice:

Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom
Franzen-Filppula-Samuelsson
Hudler-Kopecky (with others rotating in)
Maltby-Draper-Cleary

Lidstrom-Kronwall
Ericsson-Stuart
Lebda-Chelios
Meech

Conklin (starting)
Osgood

Hossa (day off)
Rafalski (out, groin)
Lilja (out, concussion)

Jeremy Rutherford of The St. Louis Post Dispatchhad the projected lines for the STL/CHI tilt (nothing about tonight):

Andy McDonald-David Backes-Brad Boyes

David Perron-Patrik Berglund-T.J. Oshie

Alex Steen-Jay McClement-B.J. Crombeen

Brad Winchester-Keith Tkachuk-Dan Hinote

D pairings

Roman Polak-Barret Jackman

Jay McKee-Jeff Woywitka

Carlo Colaiacovo-Mike Weaver

Goalie

Chris Mason

Rutherford also penned a writeup following the STL implosion in CHI last night, St. Louis Post Dispatch:

After registering just three shots on goal in the first period Wednesday night against Chicago, the Blues certainly could do better in the second period.

And they did, posting four.

With the Blues’ playoff hopes down to the final six regular-season games, the offense flat-lined in a 3-1 loss to Chicago, mustering only 17 shots on goal, two more than the team’s season low.

Jeff Woywitka’s third goal of the season for the Blues, a power-play goal with 1.5 seconds left in the game, kept the club from its seventh shutout of the season, but that’s all it did.

“We got outplayed tonight,” Blues forward Keith Tkachuk said. “Right from the start of the game, they outworked us and competed better than us. That just can’t happen at this time of the year ... it can’t.”

“No reasons” for the lack of hard work Wednesday, Blues coach Andy Murray said. “It needs to be different. It has been different, but we were not ourselves tonight, and we need to get it back quickly.”

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