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Abel to Yzerman

GDT - W.C. Fiinals, Game 1: Red Wings host Blackhawks (3:00)

by Jeff OKWingnut on 05/17/09 at 09:18 AM ET
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The kids in CHI have had five days off between games, any rust? The experienced (read old) Wings are coming off a 7 game grinder; do they have anything in the tank?  Will youth be served, or taken to school? 

All of the numbers are below.  Some of them are intriguing.  DET holds a decided advantage in 5-5 f/a. DET have allowed 13 even strength goals against vs. CHI’s 24.  DET’s goal differential/game is nearly twice CHI, at 1.46, vs. CHI = +0.75.  DET takes 40 SOG to CHI 29. Nikolai Khabibulin’s numbers are a very pedestrian 2.76 ga, 0.896 save %.

If DET can stay out of the Penalty Box, they should have an excellent opportunity to prevail.  CHI have a lethal PP that has carried them to the W.C.F., sizzling at 29%. 

Seabrook (9 pts, +3 26:20) and Keith (5 pts, +4, 25:15) will log big minutes against DET’s top lines.  The test for CHI will be their depth “D” versus the Wings depth at forward.  Barker (7 pts, -1 16:51), Walker (2 pts, -4 15:20), Hjalmarsson (1 pt, 0 15:38) and Campbell (9 pts, +5 19:03) have not played against an opponent having such scoring depth.

Game On!

POST Season Team Stats (rank):

DET:  8-3 (w-l), .727 point% (1), 3.64 g/g (2), 2.18 ga/g (2), 1.77 5-5 f/a (1), 26.4 pp (2), 72.5 pk (14), 40.2 s/g (1), 27.5 sa/g (3), 53.6 fo% (2).

CHI:  8-4 (w-l), .667 point% (2), 3.67 g/g (1), 2.92 ga/g (10), 1.14 5-5 f/a (5), 29.4 pp (1), 79.6 pk (10), 29.2 s/g (10), 26.6 sa/g (2), 49.4 fo% (9).

Observation of team stats:  Goal differential:  DET = +1.46,  CHI = +0.75. 

PLAYOFF Player Stats:
DET Skaters:
POS Player GP G A PTS +/-  ATOI
C Johan Franzen 11 8 7 15 7 19:53
L Henrik Zetterberg 11 6 8 14 8 22:23
D Nicklas Lidstrom 11 3 8 11 6 26:22
R Daniel Cleary 11 3 6 9 10 17:20
C Jiri Hudler 11 4 4 8 1 13:45
C Valtteri Filppula 11 0 7 7 5 16:57
R Marian Hossa 11 4 3 7 2 19:04
D Brad Stuart 11 1 5 6 4 24:32
R Mikael Samuelsson 11 3 3 6 3 15:45
C Pavel Datsyuk 11 1 4 5 3 20:19
D Niklas Kronwall 11 1 4 5 2 25:14
L Tomas Holmstrom 11 2 2 4 0 14:58
D Brian Rafalski 6 1 2 3 5 1 21:57
D Jonathan Ericsson 11 1 2 3 6 19:56
D Brett Lebda 11 0 2 2 4 13:30
C Darren Helm 11 2 0 2 0 10:04
L Justin Abdelkader 3 0 1 1 1 5:35
R Tomas Kopecky 8 0 1 1 0 9:31
L Kirk Maltby 10 0 1 1 -2 9:01
D Chris Chelios 4 0 0 0 -1 7:16
C Kris Draper 1 0 0 0 1 6:38
D Derek Meech 1 0 0 0 0 3:19

DET Goalies:
Player GPI W L GAA PCT
Chris Osgood 11 8 3 2.06 .921

CHI Skaters:
POS Player GP G A PTS +/- 
R Martin Havlat 12 5 8 13 2 16:49
R Patrick Kane 11 8 4 12 -3 15:47
C Jonathan Toews 12 4 6 10 2 15:36
R Kris Versteeg 12 3 7 10 -2 16:30
D Brent Seabrook 12 1 8 9 3 26:20
C Dave Bolland 12 4 5 9 1 18:59
R Patrick Sharp 12 5 4 9 0 16:12
D Brian Campbell 12 2 7 9 5 19:03
R Dustin Byfuglien 12 3 4 7 0 16:57
D Cameron Barker 12 3 4 7 -1 16:51
D Duncan Keith 12 0 5 5 4 25:15
R Adam Burish 12 2 2 4 3 10:32
C Samuel Pahlsson 12 1 2 3 -1 16:31
L Andrew Ladd 12 2 1 3 4 0 12:49
R Troy Brouwer 12 0 2 2 2 11:22
D Matt Walker 12 0 2 2 -4 15:20
L Ben Eager 12 1 1 2 -1 8:50
D Niklas Hjalmarsson 12 0 1 1 0 15:38
C Colin Fraser 1 0 0 0 0 7:53

CHI Goalies:
Player GPI W L GAA PCT
Nikolai Khabibulin 12 8 4 2.76 0.896

Injury Report:
DET:
Andreas Lilja (D) Concussion (Sidelined indefinitely)
Tomas Kopecky (W/C) Eye injury (Day to day)

CHI:
Brent Sopel (D) Undisclosed (Sidelined indefinitely)

HOT and NOT:

DET Hot:
Nicklas Lidstrom (D) 9 pts in last 8 GP
Henrik Zetterberg (C) 6 pts in last 3 GP
Johan Franzen (LW/C) 6 pts in last 4 GP
Jiri Hudler (RW/LW) 3 pts in last 3 GP
Chris Osgood (G) 8-3-0, 2.06, .921 in last 11 GPI

DET Not Hot:
Tomas Holmstrom (RW/LW) 0 pts in last 7 GP

CHI Hot:
Brian Campbell (D) 4 pts in last 2 GP
Patrick Kane (RW) 4 pts in last 2 GP
Martin Havlat (RW) 5 pts in last 3 GP
Jonathan Toews (C) 3 pts in last 2 GP
Dustin Byfuglien (W/D) 3 pts in last 2 GP
David Bolland (C) 6 pts in last 6 GP

CHI Not hot:
Cam Barker (D) 1 pts in last 7 GP
Brent Seabrook (D) 1 pts in last 4 GP

Jeff Sagarin NHL Ratings, from USAToday.com:

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .25 goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .57 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .42 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .25 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.

NHL 2008-2009 through 2009   May 14, Thursday - conference semifinals
HOME ADVANTAGE=  0.35       RATING   W   L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR
1 Detroit Red Wings     =  4.81   59 34   4.01(  18)  18 13 |  28 16 |  4.79   1 |  4.85   2
3 Chicago Blackhawks     =  4.60   54 40   4.06(  6)  15 16 |  27 23 |  4.54   4 |  4.69   3

The CBC.ca DET/CHI blog makes note of Homer’s situation, and Babcocks efforts to light a fire under his large Swedish ass:

Saturday, as the Detroit Red Wings practised for the last time in preparation for Sunday’s Western Conference final opener at Joe Louis Arena against the Chicago Blackhawks, veteran winger Holmstrom was dropped to the fourth line by Detroit coach Mike Babcock.

“He’s got to do his job, he’s got to find a way to contribute,” Babcock said of Holmstrom, who was pointless during Detroit’s seven-game second-round verdict over the Anaheim Ducks. “He was growly today, so that’s usually a good sign.”

Holmstrom skated with Darren Helm and Kris Draper, while rookie Justin Abdelkader, with just three games of Stanley Cup experience on his resume, was inserted on the second line alongside Pavel Datsyuk and Marian Hossa.

“I’m just excited about the opportunity,” Abdelkader said. “They’re two of the best players in the world. I just want to finish my checks, go to the net hard. They’re going to be handling the puck most of the time, especially Pav, so I’ll just try to find open areas and play well defensively.”

Holmstrom, who has 38 career playoff goals in 140 games, wasn’t in much of a mood to discuss his demotion.

“I have no idea [which line],” Holmstrom said. “I don’t know.”

The other lines consisted of Henrik Zetterberg between Dan Cleary and Johan Franzen and Valtteri Filppula with Jiri Hudler and Mikael Samuelsson, leaving Kirk Maltby as the odd man out, as he was for Game 7 against the Ducks. Defence pairings were Nicklas Lidstrom-Brian Rafalski, Brad Stuart-Niklas Kronwall and Jonathan Ericsson-Brett Lebda.

The Blackhawks look to be staying with the same lines that worked for them in the second round against the Vancouver Canucks:

Patrick Sharp-Jonathan Toews-Patrick Kane; Andrew Ladd-Dave Bolland-Martin Havlat; Kris Versteeg-Sammy Pahlsson-Dustin Byfuglien; Ben Eager-Adam Burish-Troy Brouwer.

Defence pairings were also unchanged: Duncan Keith-Brent Seabrook; Niklas Hjalmarsson-Brian Campbell; Cam Barker-Matt Walker.

Bob McKenzie at TSN.ca has this obervation:

Nicklas Lidstrom said the following quote the other day when discussing the Red Wings’ opponents in the Western Conference Final: 

“The Blackhawks have speed, great speed.  They are very skilled players.  I think that they are going to come at us with more speed than we’ve seen before.” . .

The Hawks are a very good team off the rush.  It’s not just one or two guys; you’ve got Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, David Bolland, Kris Versteeg and Patrick Sharp.  These guys attack with speed off the rush through the neutral zone and they can make you pay for it.  A little guy like Patrick Kane is as crafty as all get out and is a dangerous man on the ice.

From the flipside of that, the Chicago Blackhawks are going to face something that they haven’t seen before in these playoffs, the offensive depth of the Detroit Red Wings.  That depth is going to put a lot of pressure on the bottom-four defencemen for the Blackhawks.

We know that Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith can handle big minutes and that they can handle big-time players.  But if you are Cam Barker, Matt Walker, Nicklas Hjalmarsson or Brian Campbell you know that you are going to be pushed harder and harder because you will be spending more time in your own zone. . .

The Red Wings can play any type of game.  They are more physical than you realize and they are good off the cycle, but they are also terrific off the rush.  That’s going to be a key for the Blackhawks defensive pairings, maintaining their composure in their own zone.

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