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Abel to Yzerman

GDT - W.C. Semifinals, Game 4: Red Wings (1-2) at Ducks (2-1)  (10:30)

by Jeff OKWingnut on 05/07/09 at 02:04 PM ET
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Adversity, nervousness, pressure, and the “screwed factor”; all make for a long friggin day in the Hasek.  Dave Dye, Detroit News, has seen fit to throw a little gas on that fire:  “This game has become seemingly crucial for the Red Wings, trailing 2-1 in the series. NHL teams with a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven playoff have won 91.1 percent of those series (215-of-236), according to the Elias Sports Bureau.”  Here is some more real heartburn for you:  (1)  DET has a series record of 10-18 all-time when trailing a best-of-7 match-up two games to one, (2)  ANA has never lost a best-of-7 series when holding a two games to one lead.

So is tonight a “must win” game?  Will Datsyuk, Homer, or Hossa put something on the scoresheet aside from goose eggs?  Equally important, will the flipping Wings start the game at the opening whistle?  While tonights result won’t decide the series, for the Wings to have a realistic chance of prevailing, they need a win.  If they don’t win, it won’t be for a lack of talent;  Chief:  “If the Wings lose tonite, and lose this series, we will be forever jaded because the only reason for it will be lack of effort and heart.”  Babcock, via the LA Times: “We’re being tested right now,” Babcock said. “We’ve got to find out if we’re mentally hard enough and want it bad enough.” 

I’ve always had a tendency to shine my spotilght on the painfully obvious, biggest game of the season tonight, Bitches.  More below.

POST Season Team Stats (rank):

DET:  5-2 (w-l), .714 point% ( tied 2), 3.57 g/g (1), 2.14 ga/g (tied 5), 1.62 5-5 f/a (3), 30.6 pp (1), 70.8 pk (14), 40.7 s/g (1), 29.0 sa/g (4), 52.8 fo% (3).

ANA:  6-3 (w-l), .667 point% (4), 2.89 g/g (tied 5), 1.89 ga/g (2), 2.00 5-5 f/a (1), 26.5 pp (2), 79.0 pk (10), 27.7 s/g (13), 41.7 sa/g (16), 46.6 fo% (14).

PLAYOFF Player Stats:
DET Skaters:
POS Player GP G A PTS +/-
RW Johan Franzen 7 4 4 8 6
D Nicklas Lidstrom 7 3 5 8 5
RW Daniel Cleary 7 2 5 7 8
C Henrik Zetterberg 7 4 3 7 5
RW Jiri Hudler 7 2 4 6 1
D Brad Stuart 7 1 4 5 0
C Valtteri Filppula 7 0 4 4 3
RW Tomas Holmstrom 7 2 2 4 0
RW Marian Hossa 7 2 2 4 0
D Niklas Kronwall 7 1 3 4 -2
RW Mikael Samuelsson 7 1 3 4 1
C Pavel Datsyuk 7 1 2 3 0
D Brian Rafalski 4 1 2 3 5
D Jonathan Ericsson 7 1 0 1 4
RW Tomas Kopecky 7 0 1 1 -1
D Brett Lebda 7 0 1 1 1
D Chris Chelios 3 0 0 0 -1
C Darren Helm 7 0 0 0 -2
LW Kirk Maltby 7 0 0 0 -3

DET Goalies:
Player GPI W L GAA PCT
Chris Osgood 7 5 2 1.96 .926

ANA Skaters:
POS Player GP G A PTS +/- 
C Ryan Getzlaf 9 3 11 14 5
D Chris Pronger 9 2 6 8 5
D Scott Niedermayer 9 2 5 7 4
RW Corey Perry 9 4 3 7 4
RW Bobby Ryan 9 4 1 5 3
C Ryan Carter 6 2 2 4 1
RW Teemu Selanne 9 3 1 4 0
D Ryan Whitney 9 0 4 4 0
LW Drew Miller 9 2 1 3 5
C Rob Niedermayer 9 0 3 3 5
D James Wisniewski 9 1 2 3 4
RW Mike Brown 9 0 2 2 0
C Andrew Ebbett 9 1 1 2 0
C Todd Marchant 9 1 1 2 3
D Francois Beauchemin 9 1 0 1 3
C Erik Christensen 7 0 1 1 -1
D Sheldon Brookbank 9 0 0 0 0
C Josh Green 2 0 0 0 0
C Petteri Nokelainen 5 0 0 0 0
RW George Parros 7 0 0 0 0

ANA Goalies:
Player GPI W L GAA PCT
Jonas Hiller 9 6 3 1.74 .955

Average TOI:
DET Skaters:
GPI TOI
D Nicklas Lidstrom 7 26:56
C Johan Franzen 7 19:46
R Daniel Cleary 7 17:32
L Henrik Zetterberg 7 22:37
C Jiri Hudler 7 15:35
D Brad Stuart 7 24:59
R Mikael Samuelsson 7 17:35
D Niklas Kronwall 7 25:44
L Tomas Holmstrom 7 16:13
R Marian Hossa 7 19:28
C Valtteri Filppula 7 17:00
C Pavel Datsyuk 7 20:19
D Brian Rafalski 4 21:54
R Tomas Kopecky 7 9:51
D Jonathan Ericsson 7 20:25
D Brett Lebda 7 14:26
C Darren Helm 7 8:52
L Kirk Maltby 7 9:47
D Chris Chelios 3 8:04

ANA Skaters:
GPI TOI
C Ryan Getzlaf 9 25:26
D Chris Pronger 9 27:35
D Scott Niedermayer 9 27:08
R Corey Perry 9 22:23
R Bobby Ryan 9 20:20
C Ryan Carter 6 11:45
D Ryan Whitney 9 22:45
R Teemu Selanne 9 14:54
C Rob Niedermayer 9 16:28
D James Wisniewski 9 19:57
L Drew Miller 9 16:44
R Mike Brown 9 8:48
C Todd Marchant 9 20:40
C Andrew Ebbett 9 13:26
D Francois Beauchemin 921:51
C Erik Christensen 7 10:38
C Petteri Nokelainen 5 9:08
R George Parros 7 5:32
D Sheldon Brookbank 9 11:28
C Josh Green 2 9:02

Injury Report:
DET:
Andreas Lilja (D) Concussion (Sidelined indefinitely)
Kris Draper (C)  Upper body (Day to day)
Brian Rafalski (D)  Upper body (Day to day)

ANA:
Bret Hedican (D) Back injury (Sidelined indefinitely)
Brad Larsen (LW/RW) Hernia (Sidelined indefinitely)
James Wisniewski (D) Chest injury (Day to day)

HOT and NOT:

DET Hot:
Nicklas Lidstrom (D) 6 pts in last 4 GP
Brad Stuart (D) 4 pts in last 4 GP
Dan Cleary (LW/RW) 6 pts in last 5 GP
Johan Franzen (LW/C) 8 pts in last 7 GP
Jiri Hudler (RW/LW) 2 pts in last 2 GP
Henrik Zetterberg (C) 7 pts in last 7 GP
Mikael Samuelsson (RW) 2 pts in last 2 GP

DET Not Hot:
Tomas Holmstrom (RW/LW) 0 pts in last 3 GP
Marian Hossa (RW) 0 pts in last 3 GP
Valtteri Filppula (C/W) 2 pts in last 6 GP

ANA Hot:
Chris Pronger (D) 6 pts in last 4 GP
Scott Niedermayer (D) 5 pts in last 5 GP
Ryan Getzlaf (C) 8 pts in last 4 GP
Corey Perry (RW) 7 pts in last 6 GP
Ryan Carter (C/LW) 2 pts in last 2 GP
Teemu Selanne (RW) 3 pts in last 4 GP
Jonas Hiller (G) 2-0-0, 1.49, .963 in last 2 GPI

ANA not hot:
Ryan Whitney (D) 0 pts in last 5 GP
Andrew Ebbett (C/LW) 0 pts in last 4 GP
Bobby Ryan (RW/LW) 1 pts in last 5 GP

Jeff Sagarin NHL Ratings, from USAToday.com:

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .25 goals for the home
team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .57 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .42 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .25 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.

NHL 2008-2009 through 2009   May 6, Wednesday - conference semifinals
HOME ADVANTAGE=  0.35       RATING   W   L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR
2 Detroit Red Wings     =  4.75   56 33   4.00(  20)  15 12 |  25 15 |  4.72   2 |  4.79   2
8 Anaheim Ducks       =  4.37   48 43   4.06(  3)  14 19 |  21 26 |  4.34   9 |  4.41   6

From TSN.ca Icechips:

Defenceman James Wisniewski (lung contusion) is doubtful for tonight’s Game 4. Brendan Mikkelson is the likely candidate to replace him. - LA Times

Nick Lidstrom, via the OC Register blog:

“I think we have to have more urgency early in the games,” said Red Wings defenseman and captain Nicklas Lidstrom, who was in the right place at the right time when he scored the game winner in Game 1. “I don’t think we’ve had the quick starts that we wanted.”

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