Detroit’s going to struggle to enter the zone, and it’s going to be frustrating.  If they try to dump it in, Turco makes the a clean breakout pass.

Interesting. Care to say why the Wings will have trouble entering the zone? Especially a Wings team that works primarily through a *transition* game, i.e. their forwards are not in position.

The Wings weak lines will be exposed.

Idiotic. Moving on…

There will be turnovers, weak goals, and unbelievable saves.

Detroit causes turnovers. Turco will allow weak goals and make some unbelievable saves. Ozzie will make a few dazzlers but be a steady calm––dare I say Lidstrom like influence––in goal.

Matchups will be huge, and I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Franzen all centre their own lines at some point.

Not even close. Our top two lines are both offensive and defensive powers. They can play against anybody and beat them in all three zones. The lines will not change, simply because 1) Babs already learned his lesson in NSH when he tried to change things rather than trusting the boys to do the job; note the non-line changes in COL; 2) they don’t need to change.

Anything else we can clarify for you?

Posted by Osrt on 05/06/08 at 01:43 AM ET

Detroit’s going to struggle to enter the zone, and it’s going to be frustrating.  If they try to dump it in, Turco makes the a clean breakout pass.

Turco’s outlet passes are going to get picked off more times than you can shake a (carbon fiber) stick at.

Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 05/06/08 at 06:55 AM ET

Turco’s a better passer than any Red Wing defenceman this side of Lidstrom.  He’s had a history of making bad decisions about when to play the puck, but once he’s actually playing it, he’s superb.

Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 05/06/08 at 07:36 AM ET

Hope the Chief’s okay.  Somebody check the underside of The Hasek, please?

So it isn’t like DAL has had to face a high-octane offense yet.

More specifically, it isn’t like Turco has had to face a high-octane offense yet.  In twelve, count ‘em, twelve games, he only had to face thirty or more shots in TWO of them.  Part of the reason that Turco has had such a great couple of postseasons is because of the anemic offenses he’s faced-- SJ and Anaheim this year, and Vancouver last year.  I think the key here will be getting shots on goal.  Not all of them have to be quality, just enough to keep him moving and keep him always waiting for shots-- he’ll unravel at some point.  If every forward in the top six can average three shots a game, two a game from the third and fourth lines, and ten from the D (all easily do-able with this team), that’s forty shots right there.  Turco does not have the mental steadiness to stand up to a shelling for long.

and having each of them center a second line?

I think it’s a case of “If it ain’t broke...” Uncle Mike learned that lesson in Nashville, and I don’t see him forgetting it in a hurry.  That being said, mixing up lines keeps oppositions guessing, and gives opposing coaches fits, so if it’s necessary, do it.  Obviously Z and Dats can center their own lines, but one unlikely source to anchor another line, as was said here, is Franzen.  He started out as a center, and is defensively very strong-- last year in this same series, he was responsible for going up against the Getzlaf line, possibly Anaheim’s best line at the time, and he absolutely suffocated them.  If Dallas’ offense scares us, he can switch from offensive line to defensive line easily.

I’m less confident than I sound, though.  This series scares me, and it all depends on the first two games.  If we can hold serve at the Joe (something we’ve been bloody marvelous at the last two series), we’ll be in a very good position and will rattle them well.  Some factors are of concern-- Dallas is hitting very well, good on faceoffs and takeaways, and playing a strong team defense.  But all of these have downsides.  Hitting is tiresome and wears the hitter down too, faceoffs and takeaways require a sap to do it to (any saps here?), and the team defense is mostly tied to trap-like hockey.  If we don’t let them suck us into this kind of game, and play our own, then they won’t be able to keep up and we’ll be up and away before they get their heads screwed on.  It all depends on how we come out of the gate, especially after the long layoff.  Maintain focus and start strong, we’ll be fine.

It all comes down to starting well and turning the offensive zone into a shooting gallery.  Let’s hope the guys bring their hunting rifles.

Posted by AndrewFromAnnArbor from Bill Goodman's Gun & Knife Show...call a buddy... on 05/06/08 at 07:37 AM ET

He’s had a history of making bad decisions about when to play the puck, but once he’s actually playing it, he’s superb.

Okay....that just doesn’t even make sense. Methinks you’re hitting the sauce a bit early mate...but than
again, you’re probably a Leafs fan in which case it is to be expected.
Back to your golf game Bubba, leave the prognostication to the people who actually WATCH the game rather than listen to NBC coverage.

I’ll bet you have a Pierre Maguire pin-up poster in your locker at school don’t you?

Sweep number two is on it’s way...you all give Turdco and jolly band of love monkeys too much credit.

Posted by Scott H from Kalamazoo on 05/06/08 at 07:43 AM ET

Any news on Maltby?

Posted by Scott H from Kalamazoo on 05/06/08 at 07:46 AM ET

Some factors are of concern-- Dallas is hitting very well, good on faceoffs and takeaways, and playing a strong team defense.

of remaining teams (before San Jose was eliminated), San Jose leads in faceoffs at 53.1%.  Detroit is second with 52.4%, and Dallas is 5th (11th counting all playoff teams) at 49.2%.

Any news on Maltby?

he’s ready to play, but there hasn’t been room for him.  IMO, this shows Babcock is committed to “if it ain’t broke, don’t change it for the sake of changing it.”

Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 05/06/08 at 08:25 AM ET

Dallas is 5th (11th counting all playoff teams) at 49.2%.

Is it that low?  I stand corrected.  Thanks Paul.

It seemed to me like they were winning a fair amount of their faceoffs against the Fish...but then, the series was so boring that I’m sure I dozed off at times.  Guess I missed their faceoff losses at those times…

Maybe we won’t have such a difficult time playing the puck-posession, quick-transition game against Bubba Sr. after all.

Posted by AndrewFromAnnArbor from the faceoff circle, kicking out the referee on 05/06/08 at 09:50 AM ET

The other thing with hitting is that if a player gets too wrapped up in making the hit, it can lead to mistakes and scoring chances for the other team.

Posted by hockeychic from Denver, CO on 05/06/08 at 09:51 AM ET

I just did a quick stats check on faceoffs.  Against the Fish, Dallas was worse than their postseason average, at 47.7%.  They were great in the offensive zone (probably accounting for my mistaken impression), but terrible in the defensive and neutral zones.  That won’t cut it against our forwards who are strong in the circle like Draper, Z and Dats, and Fil.

A good point on hits, Chic.  One thing I forgot to mention is the wily way that we seem to avoid hits-- Dats and Lidstrom are particularly visible in this regard, but others do it too.  If guys like Morrow and Robidas miss a hit because of a shifty target, that could cause them problems.

Too bad there are no stats for dodged hits.  It’d be another category for Pavel Datsyuk to run away with.

Posted by AndrewFromAnnArbor from the math lab, crunching numbers instead of bodies on 05/06/08 at 10:10 AM ET

Turco’s a better passer than any Red Wing defenceman this side of Lidstrom.

More idiocy. Kronwall leads all D-men with 8 assists and is followed by *both* Lids and Raffy with 7. Moreover, you keep forgetting that the Wings are a puck *possession*, transition game team. They will hardly ever dump the puck into places that Turco will be able to get it. Witness the soft dump in to the opposite corner; Lids and Dats do it all the time and Dats usually gets his won puck.

The other thing with hitting is that if a player gets too wrapped up in making the hit, it can lead to mistakes and scoring chances for the other team.

Right Chic. I tried to say as much earlier, but this is much clearer. Everyone tries that plan. Dump it and get after our D. I laugh when Detroit forwards say something like that because they don’t mean to just dump and go for a hit; our forwards like to make opposing D wrestle them in the corners and behind the net. That’s a lot more exhausting than a hit.

Posted by Osrt on 05/06/08 at 11:16 AM ET

Witness the soft dump in to the opposite corner; Lids and Dats do it all the time and Dats usually gets his won puck.

Or the high pop fly that lands out of reach of the goaltender, and gives time for one of the attacking players to catch up to it.

Turco is probably a lot less vulnerable to the bouncer from 120 feet, though.

And Detroit’s forwards are all pretty good passers, too.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 05/06/08 at 12:06 PM ET

It’s interesting to analyze this matchup.  Detroit certainly looks better on paper, and I think both teams will be rested.  I really hope Filpulla is back by Game one.  That balance over three lines has been key to us over the first two series.

I really think it comes down to Turco.  If he plays “poorly” to “average”, we win, since I think we match up with Dallas very well.  The regular season series is so lopsided in our favor, and we’re healthy.  We lost 1-0 I think in the last Dallas game in the regular season, and that was with 6 of our players hurt.  So the matchup favors us.  If Turco goes on some sort of marvelous streak and produces 35 saves per game, Dallas could win.  I think Turco is the key.

Posted by TDeters on 05/06/08 at 02:30 PM ET

I’ve read, and posted (shameless plug) in The Foruma lot of analysis regarding this match-up.

I agree with the comments about Turco.  As we have all seen, too frequently, a hot goalie can steal a series.

That idea aside, I tend to think that the deciding factor in this series may well turn out to be “what style” of game is played.

Free-flowing, up and down, and the scales tip to DET.

Muck and grind, then perhaps DAL has an edge.

Obviously then if the Wings score 1st, they will have a better opportunity to dictate style.  If DAL scores first they may be better able to play a dump/chase, grinding style.

I know one thing for certain; DAL has not played an up and down style at all in these playoffs.  You have to wonder if they can adapt to a much faster pace.

Posted by Jeff OKWingnut from Hockey Netherworld on 05/06/08 at 03:04 PM ET

I agree with the comments about Turco.  As we have all seen, too frequently, a hot goalie can steal a series.

wasn’t Theodore a “hot goalie” in round 1?  his past of round 2 failures stuck.  with Detroit’s confidence, firing on all cylinders, healthy, and Osgood solid...I suspect Turco’s past (of failures against Detroit) will stick, too.

Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 05/06/08 at 03:25 PM ET

Okay....that just doesn’t even make sense. Methinks you’re hitting the sauce a bit early mate...but than
again, you’re probably a Leafs fan in which case it is to be expected.

What doesn’t make sense about it?  When he’s got the puck on his stick, he almost always makes a great play with it.  When the puck is six feet away from him, he sometimes makes the wrong decision about whether or not to go get it.

Secondly, I’ve been a Red Wings fan since I was 8.  I’ve never spent a day of my life as a Maple Leafs fan.  Please don’t ever suggest that again.

More idiocy. Kronwall leads all D-men with 8 assists and is followed by *both* Lids and Raffy with 7. Moreover, you keep forgetting that the Wings are a puck *possession*, transition game team. They will hardly ever dump the puck into places that Turco will be able to get it. Witness the soft dump in to the opposite corner; Lids and Dats do it all the time and Dats usually gets his won puck.

Assists aren’t a good measure of a defenceman’s ability to make the first breakout pass.

I agree that once the Wings have the puck in the offensive zone, it’ll be mayhem for the Stars.  But the Wings struggle at times to gain the zone against defensive-style teams.  They’re not used to playing a dump-and-chase game, and if they’re forced into it, it’ll be tough.

Don’t misunderstand me, I still think the Wings will win.  They’re deeper up front and much deeper out back.  They have more guys that can change a game.  Their power play should be (but hasn’t been) better.  They have the advantage in rest, experience, and skill.  But expecting a sweep or a simple, painless series is probably a recipe for stress.  Turco won’t give up four goals in half of every game, and Franzen won’t score as many by himself as the whole other team.

Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 05/06/08 at 04:58 PM ET

In all the commotion of being called a Leafs fan (*spit*), I forgot to mention this, re: Wings passing defencemen.  Chelios leads the team with 10 giveaways, but second and third behind him are Kronvall and Rafalski with 9 and 8.  All three are low relative to the rest of the league, but that’s mostly because Nashville and Colorado did a bad job forechecking most of the time.  Lidstrom played against the same teams (in fact, in tougher situations and against better players on the same teams) and only has 4 giveaways.

Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 05/06/08 at 05:08 PM ET

Dallas has ugly home uniforms, but at least they got rid of those 3rd jerseys that looked like they had a diagram of the female reproductive system on the front.

Regarding the unbelievably homely 3rd jersey for Dallas, apparently that logo is known as the “Mooterus”.

Posted by Other Matt on 05/06/08 at 05:29 PM ET

Matt.
By far the most halarious pic. I have seen in sometime!!!
Beat the
female organs aka (stars)!!!

Posted by dwingsrock on 05/06/08 at 07:05 PM ET

Right on Ryan. I remember you posting here before and was surprised by the recent posts.

The giveaway stats are good. We’ve already noticed that Cheli was having a mediocre playoffs but is a far better option that Lila. Most of Kronner’s giveaways, and I think Raffy’s too, happened in the NSH series. I remember posting that Raffy was *not* performing like he had a lot of playoff experience. Kronner actually doesn’t and seemed to be a bit jittery in the opening round.

I disagree that the Wings aren’t used to dump and chase. They play that kind of hockey depending on situations and make adjustments during a game, between lines, and even within shifts. It’s quite amazing actually.

And St. Nick. That giveaway stat is just a small reminder of how incredible he is. I wish I could see him live every game; there is an emotional change in the arena when he has the puck.

Posted by Osrt on 05/06/08 at 11:50 PM ET

I disagree that the Wings aren’t used to dump and chase. They play that kind of hockey depending on situations and make adjustments during a game, between lines, and even within shifts. It’s quite amazing actually.

yes it is.  although they don’t play “traditional” dump and chase.  they are much more creative on their dumps.  then there’s the Datsyuk-special: dump it himself, go get it himself, pass it to himself off the boards...while the rest of the team completes a line change

Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 05/07/08 at 07:03 AM ET

Fuzzy Math..#8 banner we need.  Many choices there.

Posted by scsgoal31 from Huntington Woods, MI on 05/08/08 at 08:07 PM ET