Screw that.  Too tough.

I’m going to continue to labor under the illusion Kenny Boy is endowed with telepathic powers enabling him to convince The Three that staying in Detroit past this year is worth more than a big fat freakin’ mansion in Bloomfield Hills, Sweden, or Slovakia.

Posted by mudshark from Divetown, Colorado on 11/23/08 at 07:56 PM ET

Who cars about the car manufacturers?  The NHL should get a government bailout, so the cap will rise and the real Big Three can stay in Detroit (along with the other two that are already under contract...).

Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 11/23/08 at 08:06 PM ET

I’m willing to part with Sammy if it means The Three will stay. Hell, the glass at the Joe would welcome the relief of no more of Sammy’s patented high and wide shots. We’ll just need to line up a new whipping boy.

Posted by Aphaea from Pennsylvania on 11/23/08 at 09:26 PM ET

I think Holland must decide whether:

A) He keeps Hank, Mule and Hossa, and lets many of the lesser talents go.  Then replace the lesser talents with Leino, Helm, Abbadabbadoo & Ericsson.

or

B) He keeps 2 out of 3 of Hank, Mule and Hossa, and keeps some of the lesser talents.

And I don’t think he can make this decision until he knows what the cap will be and he signs 2 of the big 3 & gets deep into negotiations with the 3rd.  Only then will he know whether he goes A or B.

Posted by w2j2 on 11/23/08 at 09:30 PM ET

lalallalala.... I can’t hear you. I will continue to live in ignorance that any of them might not be with the team next year.

That said, nearly EVERYONE is taking paycuts to keep their jobs these days. Think these guys would be willing to forgo that extra million or so? I’ve been living without it. It’s possible.

Posted by Jennemy of the Skate from the back of the Hasek car drinking heavily on 11/23/08 at 09:36 PM ET

I’m not too worried about it.  If they can somehow keep Hossa, great.  If not, take his salary this year and split it between Z and Mule.  I say let Sammy go, let McCarty go, let Chelly go and make room for some of the young guns...Helm, Leino, Ericsson, Howard.  They could go from Stanley Cup champs in 08, to who knows what this year (they may not win the cup, but they’ve established that they’re a definite force to be reckoned with), to the best “rebuilding team” in the league next year.

Posted by Garth on 11/23/08 at 09:58 PM ET

It is possible to live without that extra million, but there’s no denying they are on another plane from all fans, and can’t be compared.

As for taking pay cuts, Hoss threw something north of $70 million, reportedly, out the window, just to play in Detroit for $7 million and change. Threw likely a decade of job security right out the window, to play in Detroit for a single year.

If that’s not taking a hit, not enough sacrifice for Wingnuts and the team, I find myself unsure of what to think.

Posted by SENShobo from Waterloo, ON on 11/23/08 at 10:01 PM ET

He keeps Hank, Mule and Hossa, and lets many of the lesser talents go.  Then replace the lesser talents with Leino, Helm, Abbadabbadoo & Ericsson.

{{ commence broken record }}

Well, if you let Conklin go and bring up Howard, you net $31,000 in cap space (that is not a typo).  [note- McCollum makes more than Conklin]

Let Sammy go and bring up Jay Leno?  $325,000 in savings, assuming Jay re-signs at his exact current salary.

Kopecky bolts for a greener contract and we bring up Helm?  -$99,444 (yes, that’s negative sign).

Hudler signs a Kevin Lowe offer sheet, gets replaced by Abbadabboo?  $165,000 freed up.

Trade Lilja + stick Ericcson in his spot = $350,000

That gives us an extra $771,556 to play with.  In other words, six of one, half a dozen of the other.  You can look at them as spare parts if you want, but none of them come cheap.  I’ve crunched the numbers as many ways as I can think of, and every time I end up with about $12,000,000 available for Z, Hossa, and Mule (the sum of their current salaries plus a few bucks here and there from the hypotheticals).  Hossa has already turned down $10mil/yr long term; Z will absolutely see similar offers if he tests the market. Mule’s worth $5mil easy.  That’s roughly $25 million in market value with less than half that available under the cap.  Sure players take a cut to stay in Detroit, but not that much.

In the absence of a large rise in the cap, which seems unlikely, there isn’t enough room available to cram everyone in.

Salary cap.  Thanks Gary.Ass

Posted by monkey from He spells his name is Montkey on 11/23/08 at 10:11 PM ET

Ok. I’ll give it a shot.  I’ll let you know how that goes.

I can’t go for more than a few minutes without all those damn numbers creeping in again....

Posted by monkey from He spells his name is Montkey on 11/23/08 at 10:20 PM ET

Let’s not get into an ill-conceived and single-issue attack on the cap.

Most likely, Detroit will get the best of both worlds: you will lose one of the big three UFAs, and to keep the other two you will lose even more talent. Lidstrom may have established an internal ‘cap’ on individual salaries, but other contracts have established floors as well.

Posted by SENShobo from Waterloo, ON on 11/23/08 at 10:24 PM ET

Let’s not get into an ill-conceived and single-issue attack on the cap.

Well, why not?  It’s the brain-child of the ill-conceived single-foot-tall Little Gary.

Posted by monkey from He spells his name is Montkey on 11/23/08 at 10:28 PM ET

Let’s not get into an ill-conceived and single-issue attack on the cap.

You should probably read this blog more hobo; we’re into misconceptions, irrational panic and expectations that no Little Ass can take away.

My own broken record:  Z and Mule will stay while Hoss moves on to another strong team who we will have to battle at some point. Worst fear: Anaheim. Can’t you just see those bitches doing that? Even without Burke, they’re into sneaky ish.

Posted by Osrt on 11/23/08 at 10:41 PM ET

Okay, here’s what I came up with: Possible 2009-2010 Roster and Cap Hits.

And here are the assumptions I made…

1. Signings: Hank feels generous and accepts Lidstrom-level money ($7.45M) while Mule get $5.5M (because it’s nuts to think a 40+ goal scorer who’s definsively gifted would be worth any less). In addition, Happy signs a three-year deal for $1.5M per year (because he’s more than earned it).

2. They’re gone: The following players are either not signed or are traded: Chelios, Conklin, Hossa, Lebda, McCarty and Samuelsson.

3. Promotions: These five Griffins all earn roster spots: Abbadabbadoo, Ericsson, Helm, Howard and Leino.

4. Roster: The roster and lines would look something like this:
    Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Leino
    Hudler – Zetterberg – Franzen
    Abdelkader– Filppula – Cleary
    Maltby/Helm – Draper – Kopecky

    Lidstrom – Rafalski
    Kronwall – Stuart
    Ericsson/Meech – Lilja

    Osgood – Howard

Now, here’s the sad fact of the matter. Even with those condtions, the Wings would only have a 22-man roster. And the cap hit would be $59,582,111...nearly $3M more than this year’s cap. Round out the 23-man roster with D-Mac at $500k and you’re over $3M more than this year’s cap. If the cap doesn’t go up by at least $3M (and that’s a distinct possibility), you can kiss Mule good-bye.

Now, if you’ll all excuse me, I think I’ll go put a bullet in my brain.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 11/23/08 at 10:44 PM ET

This is depressing.  I’m not going to think about it anymore this year.  Umm, right.

Posted by hockeychic from Denver, CO on 11/23/08 at 10:53 PM ET

Assume the NHL salary cap in 2009-2010 rises to 61.6 million.  That is around 5 million higher than this year’s cap- in other words, not bloody likely. Even then, I would be truly impressed if Kenny Boy figured a way to pull this off, because the contracts on the books now and the cap figure make it well-nigh impossible.

That said, if you do the Wings extreme makeover here, your team looks like this:

Dats- 6.7
Z- 7.5
Hossa- 7.5
Mule- 5
Homer - 2.25
Cleary - 2.5
Malts- 950k
Leino- 1 (assuming slight raise over 850k this yr)
Abbadabbadoo- 850k
Helm- 598k
Two or three more forwards - 2-3 mil

= 36.85-37.85

Nick- 7.45
Raffi - 6
Stuart - 3.75
Kronner - 3
Ericsson - 900k
Meech - 485k
One more D-man- 500-750k

= 22.34

Ozzie- 1.4
howie boy- 600k

= 2

36.85 + 22.34 + 2 = 61.19

So, if the cap rises 5 million, this is, like cold fusion and a healthy economy, theoretically possible.  The question then becomes, is keeping Marian Hossa worth giving up, at least:

Flip
Draper
Sammy
Hudler
Kopecky
Mac
Lilja
Lebda
Conklin

Assume the cap rises only slightly, say to 58 million, and that costs you another 3 million plus shaved off the top.  Can’t really see anywhere to cut that, except maybe dealing Homer and going cheap on the fourth line forwards.  Realistically, keeping all three not only means gutting- literally gutting- your roster and re-stocking it with the Griffsters, but then going really cheap on the fourth line- think Don McLean here.  Ryan Oulahen.  That kind of thing. 

Looking at it this way, losing Hossa after this season doesn’t hurt quite so bad, especially considering how well Hudler, Kopecky, and Flip have been playing lately.  On the other hand, at least a few names on that list are replaceable and many, if not most, will leave one way or the other in the next couple seasons anyway. 

Personally, I think Nick’s got three years left, tops.  That’s a considerable amount of cap space opening up in the not too distant future, in which case having your top-dollar players in Dats, Z, Mule, and Raffi won’t look nearly as crazy without the fifth big salary.  Kronwall’s great and all, but if he wants Lidstrom-type money after this deal expires, he’s going to have to a couple really great years between now and then.  Ericsson and Meech are ready for full-time NHL duty right now and Kindl and Pyett likely will be by the time Kronner’s deal is up.  The real problem is making things work short-term, i.e., 2009-2010 and the year after, because, assuming the CBA is renewed and everyone stays all happy and civilized, organizational depth will have us in the catbird’s seat in terms of cap space, all things including the Genius That Is Kenny Holland being equal. 

Ponder this as your 2009-2010 lineup with extra Marian Hossa, and ask yourself if you’d like this team better than last year’s team, only one year from now:

Hossa-Dats-Homer
Mule-Z-Leino/Abdelkader
Cleary-Helm-Maltby
Leino/Abdelkader-???-???

Lids-Raffi
Stuart-Kronner
Meech-Ericsson
???

Ozzie
Howie boy.

Posted by mudshark from Divetown, Colorado on 11/23/08 at 11:20 PM ET

the 2008 summer hits, Hossa signs and all we talk about is how we can’t wait for the 08-09 campaign to start ... then it starts and all we talk about is the Summer of 2009.  This is madness.  The Wings have picked up 31 out of a possible 38 points, and think about this: that record has been posted with some questionable goaltending and some shoddy defense.  If we hit all cylinders at any point this season, the rest of the league is toast.  Absolutely done. 

We should be telling our grandkids some day about this season, but we won’t know what to say because all we’ve been discussing is how we spent 8 months contemplating how to keep the whole lot together.  I admit that I’m guilty of thinking about the dreaded Summer of 09 myself, but I beg of you, my Winged brethren, heed MacLeod’s words; let’s save this AT LEAST for a couple of months?  It’s November.  This team is ridiculously fun to watch.  I don’t know about you but I’m going to relish this while it lasts.

Posted by Tyler from Lansing on 11/23/08 at 11:35 PM ET

oh my god, i think i will just take the highlander’s approach, enjoy the team that is here and leave the rest up to kenny. he hasn’t let me down yet. except with signing that retard bertuzzi. stupid bertuzzi…

Posted by rwingscup19 from Dallas on 11/24/08 at 12:57 AM ET

There’s no way the cap jumps next year.  I also don’t buy the stories that its going to drop either.  If nothing else, Lil’ Gary is all about keeping up appearances and a drop of the cap would signal doom and gloom in an obvious way. They’ll do what they have to to keep things status quo.

I’d be shocked if the cap climbed again.  I’d love it… but I’d be shocked.

Posted by HockeyJoe from Upstate New York on 11/24/08 at 02:09 AM ET

Aside from the usual roster insanities armchair GMs copy over from their playstations like a Leino on the top line, or a Hudler or Abdelkader on a second line, it’s important to remember one thing.

It’s not going to happen.  All three aren’t staying.  Get over it.

Now, if any or all of them decide to play for peanuts, sure… but we’re talking about Z and Hossa both signing for <7 mil a year and Franzen signing for <4.  That’s the only way you can even begin to make a valid case for all three returning, and those expectations are irrational at best.

The depth guys already make ~ a mil, so replacing all of them with kids who make barely less than that doesn’t provide any room.  The team IS NOT going to trade a Cleary or a Filppula, the only forwards besides Datsyuk who have long term deals above a million bucks.  The team IS NOT going to trade Stuart, or Kronwall, or Rafalski… they have NTC or NMCs and it’s just stupid to trade them.\

Unless the cap climbs north of 60 mil the room to retain all three guys simply does not exist.

Hell, keeping just TWO of them may be more than the Wings can manage if the cap drops to 55 as has been reported by ‘sources’.

That said, the cap dropping or flattening out doesn’t just effect Detroit, it effects the league-wide market as well.  Rather than being able to expect 5+ mil deals, maybe a decreased cap sees Franzen with only a 4-5 mil market ceiling… that makes a 3.75-4.5 hometown discount a possibility.  Similarly, a tightened league-wide cap number might make locking up Z to a contract with Datsyuk’s yearly number a possibility, too.

So… enjoy the year, but don’t get too attached to having the best roster in the NHL by a country mile because by next year Detroit will only have the best roster by just a little bit.

Posted by HockeyinHD on 11/24/08 at 07:39 AM ET

isn’t it feasible that Z will take as much as Datty at $6.7 mil?

Posted by Animal Drew from The Mitten on 11/24/08 at 08:50 AM ET

...the usual roster insanities armchair GMs copy over from their playstations like a Leino on the top line, or a Hudler or Abdelkader on a second line…

Well, who, in your infinite wisdom, will play on the first and second lines, HD?

...we’re talking about Z and Hossa both signing for <7 mil a year and Franzen signing for <4.  That’s the only way you can even begin to make a valid case for all three returning…

Check your playstation math again, HD. Unless the Wings get rid of everyone making over $1M and fill those spots with Griffins, even those numbers don’t work. If you’re going to criticize others for the “insanities” of their possible scenarios, try to make sure your own scenarios are workable.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 11/24/08 at 11:39 AM ET

On days the Wings aren’t playing, I have nothing better to do than sit in my armchair with a calculator and “NHL2K” and ruminate…

Posted by mudshark from Divetown on 11/24/08 at 01:53 PM ET

I’ve actually worked out a way that we can keep Hossa, Z and Mule, and also trade Sammy for Iginla AND Filpula for Alexander Semin while STILL retaining enough in cap space to sing Sundin next year, should he decide he wants to play.  I also think I might have a way to trade Chris Osgood for 1995 Patrick Roy.

I can’t believe nobody else has figured this out!

Posted by Garth on 11/24/08 at 05:32 PM ET