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Official A2Y Super Tuesday Endorsement:  Stand Pat

Hate the deadline, just like I hate the playoffs.  I can see four days into the future and my visions would typically have me nervous.  I see us rocking back and forth, clicking, refreshing, reloading, clicking and waiting for the word that Kenny’s made that deal to bring us Cup Number 11.  I know for certain that the pain will ensue as we watch Sundin go to Anaheim, Jokinen to Dallas, Hossa out East, Blake back to his granola in the King room because he could care less about a Cup, only his personal comfort.  Too much talk about Fedorov: not coming.  Brad Stuart? Same thing. Too much talk.

I see those things and I have a recommendation for Kenny.  Do...nothing.

Kevin Allen gave you a list yesterday afternoon of teams he feels are buyers and others he knows are sellers.  The Wings fell in at number six on the buyer’s list and Allen says Holland may be going big.

General manager Ken Holland is looking at every possibility of landing a big scorer because Holland always looks at every possibility. He’s made overtures for most of the premium players, but Holland is saying he also doesn’t want to give up his future for a rental player.

But what if that rental player increases your chances of a Cup by a big fat margin? What then Kenny?  What if landing Sundin keeps him off the Poultry roster?  What if a deal for Hossa includes dealing away Filppula or Hudler or even Franzen?  If you’re convinced that a deal of that magnitude increases your Cup-worthiness, do you forsake the future and go for it?  How hard would it be for Holland to tell Fletcher or Waddell that they’re just asking too much, even when he knows that deal may seal the Cup this year?

Yeah, yeah. I know he “learned his lesson” with the Mathias/Bertuzzi thing last year.  But did he? Maybe he learned a long time ago that the real lesson is to do whatever you can when a Cup is within reach.  Maybe Holland made that move last year because he’s of the mindset that you don’t operate for next year or the year after, not when you have a legitimate shot at the ultimate.

“Even when he knows that deal may seal the Cup this year...” .  I said that above and it’s an idiotic statement.  There is no way you secure a Stanley Cup in February.  Sundin could be here Tuesday and hurt Thursday.  No one knows that better than us right now.  Ken Holland’s got the money under the cap and he has the assets to move if he’s so inclined, if the lure of the 11th is so strong that the future holds no meaning when compared to what could be in June of ‘08.

You’ve read plenty of stories from the MSM the last few days about the demise of the Wings.  All of a sudden, the goaltending’s weak, the blue line is small, the lack of toughness up front, the secondary scoring concerns.  Read some of those stories and you’d think the team in question played out of an Ass Can in Denver instead of Detroit.  The Wings haven’t lost six of their last seven due to a collective discovery on the parts of 29 coaches.  No formula’s been derived on how to finally beat Detroit.  It’s injuries and the toll of a long season where the expectation to win is there every night.

And because those are the reasons the Wings have been struggling of late, you have to think Ken Holland is tempted to roll the dice and give a hearty “screw you” to the GMs asking for the Hudlers and the Fils and the Franzens, Howards, Kindls, Ericssons and Hat Trick Dicks.  How gratifying would it be to Holland (and especially Babcock) if this team did absolutely nothing at the deadline and put their money on the team that couldn’t be beat through mid-January?  Let Anaheim hire their mercenaries.  Let San Jose try to acquire some heart for a franchise that refuses to learn how to win.  Let Calgary and Dallas give away whatever it takes to land that “final piece.”

My endorsement for super Tuesday is this: have Uncle Mike gather the troopies around Tuesday morning in Edmonton and tell them it’s their Cup to win or lose.  Healthy or not, this team is the one the organ-I-zation feels is best prepared to compete for the Cup, with maybe a sprinkle of Big Frigging Mac thrown in for good measure.

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Comments

     

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If a team has an 80% chance of winning each playoff series, the chance of winning the Cup is 41%.

If a trade for one player increases it to 85% in each series, the chance of winning the Cup goes up to 52%.

I don’t think that is enough to toss out parts of the next few years of the future for one playoff run.  Even if the chance of winning each series is 95%, the chance of winning all four series is just over 80%.

You can’t plan on catching lightning in a bottle.  The only way to get as close as possible to a Cup is to build a team that has a chance every year, because there are no sure things.  If you trade away your future one year and it doesn’t pay off (or even if it does), then the next year you are chasing the holes you just opened with previous trades like a dog chasing its own tail.

I hate the trade deadline because I don’t want to see anyone leave.  I like this team as it is and I don’t want any changes.

Don’t do anything that will give you buyer’s remorse in the morning, Holland.  Let the other guys take stupid chances and feel regrets afterwards.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 02/22/08 at 06:02 AM ET

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Pat? Pat Verbeek? He’s available?!?! Must go tell Eklund!

Posted by markw from Scotland on 02/22/08 at 06:20 AM ET

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Hat Trick Dicks

Three-time charmers.

Seriously though, giving away pieces of the farm when it’s in reloading mode just because we’re closer to the Cup than Los Angeles is just dumb.  Bubba gave away a considerable chunk of his furure for Forsberg last year.  Won one game against San Jose.  Islanders?  Gee, Ryan Smyth worked out well.  Atlanta picked up old Porkchop Tkachuk for a big price tag and are still waiting to win their first playoff series.  And all those players left after the first-round exits.  Don’t tell me Sundin, Blake, and even Jokinen or Hossa wouldn’t be exactly the same.  There’s only so much baloney I can take in my sandwich.  Nobody wants a rental unless it comes cheap, and you can’t honestly say you want any of those players signed to a big fat long-term contract after June if it means we send Zetterberg packing after next year because we can’t afford his cap hit.  And it’s the results that last year’s rentals got for their teams-- absolute bupkes-- that’ll make Kenny think twice about a headline deadline deal.  Not the Matthias mistake, a blip-- a big one, but a blip nonetheless.

No, it’ll be the fact that players don’t generally gel with new teams after deadline deals, and the fact that the Wings locker room has the best chemistry it’s had in years, that’ll mean sitting pat.  It’s the intangibles-- the glue, the heart, the playing-for-the-guy-next-to-you mentality that I talked about in my long and maudlin comment that get you over the hump.  And that’s why the biggest deadline deal for Kenny should be a good doctor, a good physiotherapist, a contract for D-Mac, and a pack of St. John Licci/St. Lydwina of Schiedam intercessor candles and a few hundred novenas.

Posted by AndrewFromAnnArbor from the Club Car on the Stress Train on 02/22/08 at 06:28 AM ET

George James Malik's avatar

I was gonna say, “Which NHL’er is named Pat?”

I’d go for Pat, Mark, and Larry--we can always bring the scouting staff together to get Verbeek and Mark Howe out of retirement, and I’m sure Larry Murphy isn’t too far out of playing shape, given that Coffey-like skating stride…

Kenny kicks the big tires.  Kenny always kicks the big tires.  He asked Paul Holmgren what he wanted for Forsberg, and probably hung up immediately after Floppa’s price tag was read aloud. 

I get the feeling that KH will bring in somebody, but unless he can get a superstar for a song and dance, he’s not going to be going after the big names.  He’s probably going to bring in somebody who’s somewhere in between a moderately useful player (think the forward version of Murph, minus the HOF pedigree, but with a lot more heart than Kyle Calder) and Cory Cross, who thanked the Red Wings for their time and money and headed over to the German league.

Posted by George James Malik from South Lyon, MI on 02/22/08 at 08:05 AM ET

Osrt's avatar

Ah, the reactionary reacts the right way. I agree with you C3PO and the rest of you as well. We’re in a good space and can keep it together for a few years to come.

We get our roster healthy and we’ll be good to go.

I do, however, think there is good chance Fedorov will come back over the summer unless he gets to a team he really wants to be a part of. This may be another reason Holland will sit tight; the off season signing pool will be lively.

Posted by Osrt on 02/22/08 at 08:15 AM ET

w2j2's avatar

What you guys said… D-Mac is the man.  That is why they gave away Ellis.

The corollary to all this is Holland SHOULD load up on free agents in July, when they really are free.  That is what Brian Burke did last summer.

Posted by w2j2 on 02/22/08 at 08:43 AM ET

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A few things.

First, as the kids would say, major “props” to you Chief for bending over backwards to get a “Hat Trick Dick” reference in there! Though I’m dissapointed it didn’t follow to a reference to Columbus…

Secondly, I think this entire deadline panic goes back to something more. To me, the new CBA has changed what is considered success in the NHL. Obviously, people will continue to hold the Cup in high regard (as it should be), but the CBA has devalued winning the tournament.

Given the structure of the league, from the salary cap to the free agency changes, it’s a lot tougher for a team to build the depth that is historically necessary for teams to win the Cup once, let alone repeatedly. Gary has turned the Stanley Cup tournament into a total crapshoot. I’m sure non-Wings fans will call me bitter, and that’s fine, but I still think it’s true. The healthiest team, regardless of seed, going into the playoffs has an excellent chance at going far because the so-called “better” teams that may not be as healthy can’t have the depth they once had.

Until the CBA is changed, or at the very least the cap goes high enough where a little disparity is created between the Wings/Rangers/Leafs of the league, and the Preds/Bolts of the league, we’ll never have a shot at seeing true heavyweights faceoff in the playoffs.

This may just be my opinion, but I think the greatest eras in sports were those that had a few great teams that beat the snot out of each other.

In hockey there were some great matchups with the end of the Flyers reign and the beginning of the Isles. Then we had the Isles and the Oilers. The Wings and Avs were as entertaining as it could be for three or four years.

In basketball there were the great Lakers and Celtics teams that traded blows. Then the Pistons snuck up and created a great rivalry with Boston. And of course, the Bulls then stepped up to the Pistons, and eventually stormed right past them. Now, there are exciting battles between powers like the Spurs, Mavs, and Suns.

If I wanted mediocrity across the board, I’d watch the NFL. But to me, unlike most people, that is boring. I want to see greatness. And I want to see greatness play against greatness. The NHL has killed this. I just hope the cap gets to $60 million quickly so this can be somewhat reversed.

Posted by Nathan on 02/22/08 at 09:33 AM ET

cementslinger's avatar

Get Satan.  Put him on a line with Datsyuk.  That tandem will be called, “El Diablo and The Magic Man”.

Seriously though, I would like to see Miroslav Satan dressed in the winged wheel. But who for? That’s easy.  Sammy and a third rounder -or- Filppula straight up.

Er, maybe this whole Ellis thing is a set for Frolov comming to Motown. Would rather see Anze but would welcome Frolov for Sammy and a mid-late pick.

I think I’d rather see Nik Antropov the most though.  I think.

Posted by cementslinger from Midland MI on 02/22/08 at 09:34 AM ET

cementslinger's avatar

Oh yeah, a question to anybody who thinks Holland won’t go for and get a big name:

Last year, did you see the Bertuzzi trade coming?

Posted by cementslinger from Midland MI on 02/22/08 at 09:53 AM ET

IwoCPO's avatar

Last year, did you see the Bertuzzi trade coming?

I’m ususally a very humble guy Slinger. But....

Iwo Prediction 25 Feb 2007

My prediction remains Todd Bertuzzi, maybe with a dash of Smolinski thrown in.  I know Bertuzzi won’t play until after the deadline but Holland’s not getting Guerin and already lost out on Tkachuk and Bubba Swede.  By the way, letting JP Dumont dance his way to Nashville and now allowing Bubba to land Floppa immediately qualifies Holland as David Poile’s punching bag of a little brother, or his bitch; depending on your sensitivities.

Posted by IwoCPO from Washington, DC on 02/22/08 at 10:01 AM ET

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But do you still regret not getting Forsberg and letting him go to Nashville?  smile

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 02/22/08 at 10:08 AM ET

George James Malik's avatar

CBA included, the deadline is always nuts because even the teams that are “out of it” (this bizarro season of “ultra parity” included) think they can bolster their rosters for an 8th-spot push.  This year is just that much more slanted than the others, and while this may be an unpopular opinion, I see no reason to believe that every year will be “Bettman’s blessed parity” redux...but the deadline will remain, July 1st aside, the silliest day on the NHL calendar.

As far as trades are concerned, I don’t see Holland trading Filppula, Hudler, or Kopecky for anybody less than the highly unlikely Hossa.  A rental like Satan (who played for the Detroit Vipers with Petr Sykora during the first lockout)?  Draft pick.  Or Mikael Samuelsson (ha). 

Frankly, I still think that we should have gotten Smolinski, if not at the deadline, as a free agent, as the Toledo boy lives around here and skates with the Wings in the summer, but I don’t run the team.

Posted by George James Malik from South Lyon, MI on 02/22/08 at 10:12 AM ET

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I’m ususally a very humble guy Slinger. But....

Why Chief, have you been on E-Bay buying hubris?  I’m just asking....

Posted by Rumbear from Sandy Eggo on 02/22/08 at 10:28 AM ET

Avatar

The Wings will pull the trigger on Tuesday if they necessarily have to. Compare it to the Red Sox/Yankees...one team does something, then the other team surely has to follow suit. If Anaheim goes out and get a big name, if San Jose and Dallas do the same, what will Kenny do then? He can’t afford to sit back and see the other teams he will be competing with in the playoffs going out, taking a risk and adding a player the Red Wings don’t have.

It’ll be a reactionary deadline, no doubt about that. A lot of GMs will be looking around, seeing who’s going to draw their pistol first. If no one does, then I don’t think much will get done.

No doubt though Kenny makes a minor deal for a depth defenseman, with the injuries last year and now this year, he can’t afford to have a repeat of the Anaheim series. I think we can all remember how well the Jiri Slegr and Jamie Macoun deals worked out, I’d love to see something very similar.

Posted by Jeremy from Bowling Green, OH on 02/22/08 at 10:39 AM ET

hockeychic's avatar

Chief - I like this post.  I agree, I don’t want a big deadline deal if it means giving up the future.  Of course, I would love to see Fedorov but I agree, there has been too much talk, it isn’t going to happen.

Nathan, I agree with you. I can’t stand the NFL anymore, it is so boring with all the parity.  I miss the “great” teams we had in the NHL and wonder if we will ever see it again.

Posted by hockeychic from Denver, CO on 02/22/08 at 10:50 AM ET

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Call it sour grapes, but honestly, since 2002-2003, what team has been the best in the league, on the whole?

You sure as hell won’t pick Tampa or Carolina. Anaheim is probably it; New Jersey isn’t.

Then there’s Detroit. Evaluating the last five years, you wouldn’t for a second consider Carolina, Tampa, or New Jersey better than Detroit. But they all won Cups. This is the path that Gary is sending us down. There are no great teams any longer!

When Detroit won three Cups in six seasons, they were the best team of that period in every respect.

When the Pens won back-to-back Cups, they were the best team in every way.

How about the Oilers? Or the Isles? Or the Habs? If you go back, all the teams that were great playoff teams, were not surprisingly, also great regular season teams. Those teams did it all. They were good all the time because they had depth.

Instead, the Stanley Cup, a trophy that should be awarded to a team that was the best club of the year, is being devalued. Now, the Cup will be a pass-around for everyone in the league to play with. Good idea, Gary. Let’s devalue the Cup to the point where it’s about as lame and irrelevant as the Lombardi Trophy.

Hockey was great because it awarded the best trophy in the world to it’s league championship. The Cup means so much because it required a team to prove their mettle in both the marathon and the sprint tournament at the end. A team had to be built for both the league and the tournament. This is what made Stanley Cup Champions the best title in the world of sports.

European football puts all it’s emphasis on league play. League play and cup play are unique entities. If you win the league, you are revered even if you lose in all the cup competitions. If you win the major cup competition (Champions League), you are revered even if you were mediocre in your league. This is why none of the trophies in European football are even close to being as important as the Stanley Cup. They’re devalued because they require less to be earned.

The NFL allows teams to limp into the postseason at 8-8 or 9-7, and at that point, it’s one-and-done. The knockout champions are considered the best team in the NFL, even if they played like garbage for more than 50% of the season.

So, let’s keep the Cup in the mode that made it great. Force teams to strive for greatness and diversity if they want to win the Cup. No rewards for league success. No rewards for lone tournament success. You have to show it all year. This is what the Cup used to be about. Let’s get it back there!

As a side-note, this is what made upsets great. Upsets aren’t exciting when they happen every year. Upsets would be more historical and relevant if teams came out of nowhere every once in a while to beat a giant of an era in the playoffs. If you don’t have any truly favored teams, you can’t have the excitement of an upset.

Posted by Nathan on 02/22/08 at 11:31 AM ET

Avatar

I think we can all remember how well the Jiri Slegr and Jamie Macoun deals worked out, I’d love to see something very similar.

If memory serves, Macoun played a regular shift throughout the playoffs, while Slegr only got into one game (due to Fish getting suspended). I’m not sure how you can lump those two together.

Posted by shep from california on 02/22/08 at 11:43 AM ET

Hoser's avatar

Clearly we need some defensive depth, but there’s nobody affordable out there that I like very much.

Logic aside, I’d just like to have Fedorov back.  I suppose he could play defense if (read: when) necessary.

I’m just not willing to give anything up.  I think Fil should be nearly untouchable, I guess I could give up Hudler and a pick but that’s about it.

I definitely enjoyed the epic battles between the Isles & Oilers, Wings & Avs etc. - I’d too would much rather see two excellent teams battle it out than watch a bunch of scrappy teams wage a war of attrition.

LittleGary knows best, eh?

Posted by Hoser from Downer Peninsula, Michigan on 02/22/08 at 11:59 AM ET

Jeff  OKWingnut's avatar

Great Thread:  Good comments by all.  Wish I had more time to put in more than the following two cents:

Provided everyone on the current roster is healthy come playoff time, and the players have a few games to get the rust out, then the Wings have an excellent shot to go the distance, they undoubtedly have the talent. Probably as good as or a better chance than any team from the Eastern Conf., and at least on par with the Poultry and Stars. 

The real issue, in my opinion, is whether they can they stay healthy during the playoffs.  Which issue can be summed up best by the one thing the Wings lack, SIZE.

Wings are fast, talented, and generally have above average goal-tending.  They have some size, but really could use another “Power Forward” that likes to shoot.

At the Pepsi Can, Unlce Mike trotted out on the #1 line Homer, Franzen and Datsyuk, on the #2 Hank, Sammy, Flip.

Now think if #2 line read, Antropov, Hank, and Flip—sounds pretty sweet huh.

I wouldn’t cry not one tear to see Sammy (I don’t mind shooting, but couldn’t hit the barn door) and Huddles sent packing for Antropov.  Put a big body on Hanks line, and call up Mac. 

Antropov, 28 y/o, 6’6”, 230 lbs.  59 games, 21 goals, 24, assists, 45 points, +4.

Thats just me.  I’m in the win now camp.  Lidstrom has only a couple of years left.  Win while we got him, because odds are that represents your best chance to do so in the near future.

If adding a piece improves your odds, and the cost is not outrageous, make the move.

Posted by Jeff OKWingnut from Hockey Netherworld on 02/22/08 at 12:02 PM ET

Hoser's avatar

Antropov sounds good - and I’d give what you’re suggesting.  But would they deal for that?

What’s his contract status?

Posted by Hoser from Downer Peninsula, Michigan on 02/22/08 at 12:05 PM ET

Avatar

Compare it to the Red Sox/Yankees...one team does something, then the other team surely has to follow suit. If Anaheim goes out and get a big name, if San Jose and Dallas do the same, what will Kenny do then? He can’t afford to sit back and see the other teams he will be competing with in the playoffs going out, taking a risk and adding a player the Red Wings don’t have.

That way leads to buyer’s remorse and regrets, though.  No one should do something contrary to what they think is smart just because soemone else did something stupid.  If a trade would look bad to a GM if he made it last Tuesday, and it would look bad to him if he made the same trade next Saturday (if it were possible), then he shouldn’t make the same idiot move on next Tuesday jsut because it is The Trade Deadline and Everyone Else Is Doing Something.

It’s like your mother always told you about stupidity and peer pressure:  “If everyone else jumped off a cliff, would you go with them?”

I’m in the win now camp.

That’s just the problem, though.  With the playoffs becoming increasingly random in some ways, what gives the best chance of building a team that can “win now?” Is it leaving a team as it exists intact, or adding a player who might not really fit in that well because he doesn’t have time to gel with the team?  There is no clear answer - it seems in some ways as though the chances of success or failure are equal with respect to trade or not, because the confounding factors (health, luck, etc.) are so much more important that they swamp any benefit from a trade.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 02/22/08 at 12:31 PM ET

Hoser's avatar

I see Antropov makes 2.05M/yr and has 1 year left.  It’s only a year, but it’s better than a rental…

Posted by Hoser from Downer Peninsula, Michigan on 02/22/08 at 01:06 PM ET

Avatar

Nathan, I’m with you. Parity = Mediocrity and it sucks.
It also bugs the daylights out of me when people act as if this is the first time EVER that the playoff races are interesting. Thanks Gary.

I hate the trade deadline because I don’t want to see anyone leave.  I like this team as it is and I don’t want any changes.

Exactly. Don’t mess with this team’s chemistry.

Chief, because I have Directv, I get to watch “Tradecentre” on the NHL Network. I can’t wait to see Pierre Maguire’s head explode when the most Kenny does is pick up a depth D.
Speaking of Pierre...I’m looking forward to seeing Huds harass his boy, Fluffy-Phanuefey tonight. Too bad Dan Cleary isn’t around.

Posted by KB from Missouri on 02/22/08 at 01:28 PM ET

Avatar

i don’t want to see huds go, sammy i wouldn’t mind leaving but i agree fil should be untouchable, so send sammy and quincy and a draft pick for whoever, a month ago i would have said kopecy to but he has shown some signs of talent lately and if he starts using his body more he could be a go to guy. oh yeah drake has done nothing of much note in my mind either, sure he steps in on the PK but when cleary gets back for playoffs he will be expendable, guess he would be a good depth player thugh if injuries happen in the playoffs

Posted by Jay from canada on 02/22/08 at 01:31 PM ET

     

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