Abel to Yzerman
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Portzline: Genius
by IwoCPO on 02/23/09 at 08:19 AM ET
Comments (53)
I haven’t been paying too much attention to the various power rankings this year. And you know me, so you know why. If the Wings aren’t sitting on top of them, then those polls simply don’t exist in my mind. Right. Wrong. It’s how I…you get the idea.
But hark. What’s this?
Columbus Post Dispatch/Portszline
1. Detroit (1): It’s pretty remarkable that despite substantial goalie issues the Wings are closing in on 40 wins already.
2. San Jose (3): Yes, we see they’ve won three straight. But it’s this simple: We expect them to lose on Tuesday in Detroit.
We’re going to forgive young Aaron his calendar mistake and assume he knows a lot more than most other MSM hockey writers.
Like I said, I don’t know where the Wings stand in the other polls. And there is absolutely zero chance I’ll be expending the energy required to find out. But it does bring up a very simple question, one I’d like each of you to ponder and perhaps even discuss. Are the Red Wings better than San Jose?
Better question. Can the Sharks beat Detroit in a playoff series, even with home-ice advantage?
Top of my head, here are some of the factors that need to be considered:
—Goaltending. No matter who is in net, Conklin or a rejuvenated Osgood (and that’s the only way he’ll be there, if he’s rejuvenated…and consider everything that would have to happen between now and then for Chris Osgood to be starting the Western Conference Finals), I believe the Wings are not at the disadvantage everyone believes they would be. When this matchup takes place, if it does, it means either Conklin or Osgood has played very, very well. Well enough to get the Wings there. Nabokov? He hasn’t impressed me yet and I don’t know that he will. Based on his performances against the Wings to date, he definitely doesn’t scare me…not like Luongo would, or a Kipper would, or even a Mason would.
—Firepower. Yeah, they’ve got some. Thornton and Marleau, obviously. Setoguchi, Clowe and Pevelski. Cheechoo and Grier. A few others. Balanced, dangerous to the tune of 2.5 lines deep, maybe 3. But no more explosive than Detroit. In fact, with Leino on the fourth line, no team in the league has the kind of scoring potential spread across every line. Is the Wing advantage a dramatic one? No, and it could be counteracted by bad goaltending. But so could everything, and bad goaltending would prevent this playoff matchup from ever happening anyway.
—Blue line. I can’t speak to their ability to shut down a top line or two. I haven’t watched them enough and I don’t trust stats to the point that numbers would really do this area justice. I know Blake’s having a resurgent year and Boyle’s awesome offensively. I see Brad Lukowich back there and I dig that. But there are five defensemen on that team who have in excess of fifty games played. Lukowich is in the 30’s and so is Semenov. What that tells me is that their blueline has played together, almost intact, the entire year and that’s dangerous for us. At the very least, defensively—right now—they’re on par with the Wings. That could change if Stuart comes back perfectly healthy and effective, Kronwall continues to gradually yank his head out of his own ass and Lilja keeps being someone other than Lilja. There is danger, in Chelios, Meetch and Lebda. Each scare you for different reasons. Edge to San Jose on the blue line.
—Coaching. Oh, now that’s interesting eh? We all know Todd McClellan is being hailed as the young genius around the league. We all know he was singularly responsible for the Wing penalty kill, goaltending, good hygiene habits and tutoring any kids of Wing players in mid-level Science courses. In other words, he was probably an asset we’re missing. But, c’mon, he couldn’t have meant that much. Now…where could he hurt us? He’s probably got a better idea how to stop the Wing power play than anyone else in the league. Thinkin’ ain’t doin’ of course. And here’s the thing with McClellan. I’m going to withhold judgment on just how good he is in terms of his effect on San Jose until the Sharks fall behind in a playoff series. Let’s see the magic when bad memories of playoffs losses start to seep in and the red headed kid is rocking and swaying in the room, sucking his thumb and wondering if it’s all gonna come crashing down again. And Uncle Mike? I don’t have to tell you about him. He’s the best coach in the league. I may change that assessment if I see Kris Draper as a healthy scratch again, but I doubt it. Advantage, for now: Wings.
—Intangibles. The Wings know how to win a playoff series. They just do. San Jose hasn’t proven that, but man they want to prove a whole bunch of bastards wrong, don’t they? San Jose is a hungry team. The Wings? We haven’t seen that yet and that’s a fact and a concern. Home ice? It looks like San Jose would have it and I’ll tell you now that worries me. More because I don’t like the idea of having to win one of the first two in San Jose. In fact, it makes me sick to my stomach. But by then? By then, the Wings will have either proven that winning on the road is a strength or they will have been eliminated. We’ll see. Lemieux. I literally believe his presence, if he’s in there, would be an advantage to Detroit. He’s a dirty scumbag who has nothing to offer offensively. At some point, he’s going to try and compensate for the fact that he has no impact with the puck and do something stupid. Count on it.
Did that answer my question? No. Do I believe the Wings are a better team than San Jose? I don’t know.
But do I believe they’ll beat them in the Conference Finals? No I don’t. Because I don’t think San Jose’s gonna be there.
Cop-out? Sure. Re-phrase. “If San Jose were to make it to the Conference Finals and they were to play Detroit, who would win?”
Wings, in 6.
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Comments
One more factor to consider, Chief - health. All else equal my vote goes for the Wings, but we’d be anticipating the opportunity to celebrate lucky #13 had the troops been healthy in 2007. You can’t expect to win with a decimated blue line.
Posted by kemeisel on 02/23/09 at 09:51 AM ET
I also don’t expect to see San Jose in the Conference Finals.
But then, unless we have some sort of minor miracle between the pipes, I’m not sure we’re there either. And yes, at this point I’m willing to consder any and all of the following: cat sacrifice; bull sacrifice; elephant sacrifice; virgin sacrifice; prayer to God, Jesus, Buddha, Zeus, and/or Satan; Voodoo; Santeria; Jimmy Swaggart and Tammy Faye Bakker; Homeopathy; St. John’s Wort; Peyote; the venom of the Sonoran Desert Toad; hummingbird tears; swinging and wife-swapping.
I’m just not sure if those things are intended for me or Osgood.
Posted by AndrewFromAnnArbor from Fortress Europe on 02/23/09 at 09:54 AM ET
Portzline actually is very good.
At some point this Red Wings defense is going to stand up and become the defense we know it to be. Whether it for a period or for a month.
Chelios, Meech, Lebda are bound to make mistakes but in last year’s playoffs, Ozzie was there more times than not. And I love the man, but Lilja? You know he’s good for giving up a glorious chance at the worst possible time. So we are making a big leap of faith that either Ozzie will return from his vacation in the depths of Manny Legace psychosis, or the Conklin is going to blow us away.
At any rate, the Red Wings powerplay seems to have the makings of the best of all time.When the PP struggles, it’s for a couple of periods, not a couple of games. We may just have to rely on the fact that the Wings offensively are on a level no other team can match and win each game 6-5.
Think that’ll be stressful? I just peed a little.
Posted by bobby lang from Columbus, OH-IO on 02/23/09 at 10:38 AM ET
At any rate, the Red Wings powerplay seems to have the makings of the best of all time.
and what good is that in the playoffs when penalties are few and far between because the refs have buried the whistle yon arse? not much.
Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 02/23/09 at 10:43 AM ET
I now come w/Avatar. I feel official now. “Mars Attacks” Datsyuk FTW.
My brain hurt trying to pick one of those four options. I have an exam later today but I was stressing more about what hypothetical playoff scenario was most likely to come true. In all honesty? I have no idea. None at all. I have more confidence in Manny Legace than I do in stating an opinion on this.
I don’t know if it’s my natural pessimism or something else, but I tend to agree with Mandingo (I think). In order for the Wings to beat the Sharks, a certain switch is going to have to flip. If both teams make the CF, San Jose is going to be foaming at the thought of beating the Wings and playing for the Cup. I even like the comparison to the ‘97 Wings ... not player-for-player obviously, but I can see them displaying a similar drive and intensity that may win a few series[‘s, and with the Finals in reach, the Wings would have to “show the heart of a champion” or whatever lousy cliche you want to insert. Either way I’m terrified and I want to go home.
Posted by Triple Deke Tyler from Lansing on 02/23/09 at 10:52 AM ET
and what good is that in the playoffs when penalties are few and far between because the refs have buried the whistle yon arse? not much.
Still very important. A great powerplay can be the difference in the playoffs. With fewer chances to score, a greater importance is placed on those chances you do get.
Posted by bobby lang from Columbus, OH-IO on 02/23/09 at 10:54 AM ET
Honestly, I have no freakin idea this year. It has been very strange indeed. After following all these playoff runs the Wings have had, this upcoming one leaves me feeling uneasy. Were supposed to win it, but as we all know, the league does not want us to. I guess, just sit back and watch what develops.
My hope for Howard was misguided I guess. Both he and the team were flat. Hope he gets another chance.
Posted by Jeff from Loveland, CO on 02/23/09 at 11:01 AM ET
Something tells me the ‘Hasek’ is going to be overloaded this year. Start shovelin’ and stokin’ that engine boys.
Posted by calquake on 02/23/09 at 11:08 AM ET
There are so many intangibles this year, glad we have some time left to sort them out. Nerve wracking as usual. Is it me or do Pavel Datsyuk and Pavel Chekov (Star Trek TV show, yes I am old.) look alike?
Posted by Interference on 02/23/09 at 11:15 AM ET
Over reliance on the power play = first round exit.
Welcome to the NHL, where we only call ticky tacky penalties in the regular season!
Posted by shanetx on 02/23/09 at 11:20 AM ET
Did anyone else notice that the Columbus Dispatch’s logo of the old “English D” looks eerily similar to a certain Detroit team’s logo?...
Posted by Primis on 02/23/09 at 11:34 AM ET
If we get good goaltending from either Osgood or Conklin, and Stuart returns and we have three strong sets of D, then we win. If either of those two things don’t happen, we lose.
Posted by TDeters on 02/23/09 at 11:40 AM ET
If we get good goaltending from either Osgood or Conklin
I personally don’t see why Conklin isn’t ready. I also don’t see why people question his consistency. he has looked pretty consistent to me.
of course, I also thought Legace would get us through the playoffs.
one thing that always sticks in my mind about Conklin is other players saying he’s not what you typically think of a goaltender being (mentally). he’s not the usual goalie-whack-job. of course, I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.
I still say we should sign these guys as our goalies…
I mean, it worked for Garth Snow right? there’s a name I haven’t heard in a while. what ever happened to him? oh yeah, that’s right…actual rules about goalie equipment.
Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 02/23/09 at 11:44 AM ET
These kinds of predictions are like saying shutout part way through the 4rd period in a game when ya’ve held the opponent off the score board (so far).
The Gods (no not the ones Andrew is offering sacrifice to) are always watching and we need not taunt them as they are historically not on “our’ side.
If we can clean up our act and get our house in order, we’ll be ok. We keep the inconsistency(ies) going and we can all predict the outcome.
Posted by MOWingsfan19 on 02/23/09 at 11:45 AM ET
A lot of factors go into sucess in the playoffs, health, goaltending, PK and PP play as well as coaching. Last year everything fell into place for the Wings. We really didn’t have a tough series until Dallas. Travel was at a mimimum for Detroit as well. This years team has not yet found the spark that ignites the push for the Cup. There is time but precious little of it. The two biggest areas of concern IMHO are goaltending and PK. Neither has been adequate enough to win a Cup. I do believe the Wings will go deep but facing San Jose Can You See will be a monumental task. Although I still fear playing a team like Columbus, particularly if they pick up another scoring forward.
Posted by calquake on 02/23/09 at 11:52 AM ET
Mo, everyone’s been clamoring (okay, one guy) for pictures from the Poultry Rendevous. I posted mine in the ‘Defending Sid’ entry. And, as you can see, I now have a new avatar. You know, I’m starting to figure out this computer thingy and how it works.
Posted by calquake on 02/23/09 at 12:01 PM ET
Thank goodness there are still 22 games left this season. I’ve already started tinkering with the SJS GDT. The Sharks rank at or very near the top in every statistical category (you know, like the Wings of last season). DET is at or near the top of every statistical category EXCEPT g/a and p/k, hell even DET’s sa/g is among league leaders. I.E. Wings giving up too many quality chances.
Wings D is pathetic, has been all year, and the MIN game illustrates that in Monet styling.
If the playoffs started today, Wings may get past a 1st round on firepower; but I wouldn’t bet on them making the WCF, let alone winning it.
HTT is right, Wings forwards are NOT PLAYING smart “D”. Too often the D and/or goalie is being left out to dry. We can and should blame Ozzie for the majority of his woes. Howard just got toasted the other night, and a couple of those were no fault of his.
Why the Wings play better for Conk is unknown to me, but it certainly seems they have much more confidence when he is in net.
Wings have 22 games to figure out how to play consistent “D”. If they don’t, I don’t see them taking Lord Stanley to Sweden next fall (and you gotta believe they’d like to).
Posted by Jeff OKWingnut from Quest for 12 on 02/23/09 at 12:02 PM ET
Cal, just got the pics from Stace. I’ll have’em to ya shortly.
And no fairies on my head this time, but looks like Gordie’s trying to knock my block off.
Posted by MOWingsfan19 on 02/23/09 at 12:06 PM ET
Over reliance on the power play = first round exit.
Welcome to the NHL, where we only call ticky tacky penalties in the regular season!
I’m not worried about that. For some reason, Wings fans have assumed that our even strength goal differential is horrible because our power play is so good and those numbers can’t possibly work in tandem.
San Jose 5-5 F/A: 1.27
Detroit 5-5 F/A: 1.31
We have 26 more goals than the second place team (the Sharks, btw). Even without power plays, we’re a better team 5 on 5. Her’es the thing, San Jose has a terrifying gleam in their eyes this season and a scary jump in their step, but they still remind me of a Red Wings junior team. They have more size than we do, so they can play the hitting game marginally better, but all in all, they play like a Detroit clone. Nobody plays Detroit’s game better than the Red Wings. We won’t walk over San Jose, but we’ll beat them.
As for Washington? They could take some teams by surprise, but I still think the Wings experience, team play, and calmness on the ice are enough to handle them (not to mention they have Jose Three-or-Four in net).
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 02/23/09 at 12:12 PM ET
Like you, Chief, Nabakov doesn’t scare me. And I think Conklin will hold his own and give the Wings a chance every game. But here are two things that do scare me about the Sharks.
1. Size: The Sharks are bigger and stronger, expecially on the blueline. The Wings have handled that difference pretty well this year, but they may not do as well playing them in the third round of a tough playoff series. And if anything keeps Stuart and/or Franzen out of the lineup, we’re in trouble.
2. PP vs PK Matchups: The Wings may have the best PP in the league, but the Sharks have the #4 PK. And all we have to put up against the Sharks PP (ranked #2, right behind the Wings) is the #2-freaking-8 PK. Just typing that makes me ill.
So, who wins a Wings-Sharks series? Like many of you, I have absolutely no clue. But I do know I’m not optimistic about the Wings chances.
Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 02/23/09 at 12:15 PM ET
Why the Wings play better for Conk is unknown to me, but it certainly seems they have much more confidence when he is in net.
Here’s my theory, Jeff. The Wings have more confidence in Conk because he doesn’t give up juicy rebounds. He absorbs shots and lets the Wings dominance on faceoffs work in the Wings favor. Ozzie looks like he’s made up rubber…almost everything shot at him seems to rebound somewhere.
If I were a Wings d-man, I’d be playing “nervous” all night in front of Ozzie. I’d be tenous and I’d be running around getting out of position trying to prevent shots from happening…which is exactly the way the Wings seem to play in front of Ozzie.
Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 02/23/09 at 12:23 PM ET
not to mention they have Jose Three-or-Four in net
Exactly.Theodore’s career record in the first round is 17-9. His record in the second round is…2-17. Needless to say he hasn’t been to the third.
Posted by shep on 02/23/09 at 12:28 PM ET
So when’s the next one?
Posted by Nate A from Shot missed by Mikael Samuelsson(Over Net) on 02/23/09 at 12:23 AM ET
I do believe MOWings mentioned something about how lovely Detroit can be in the spring… say April or May perhaps.
Posted by calquake on 02/23/09 at 12:51 PM ET
So, who wins a Wings-Sharks series? Like many of you, I have absolutely no clue. But I do know I’m not optimistic about the Wings chances.
Words of wisdom from OTC. Pretty much sums up the thread.
Posted by Rumbear from Top O da Hasek, sippin rum & catchin some rays on 02/23/09 at 12:58 PM ET
I don’t even see how it’s possible for the Wings to win another game this season.
Posted by RWBill from the Land of 12 in 12. on 02/23/09 at 01:08 PM ET
I don’t even see how it’s possible for the Wings to win another game this season.
Spoken like a true long-time resident of the ‘Hasek’ RWBill. We’ll be joining you shortly.
Posted by calquake on 02/23/09 at 01:19 PM ET
Don’t get too obsessed with PK numbers.
The Stats are absolutely worthless until they start keeping track
of minutes of 5 on 4, and minutes of 5 on 3. Separately, of course,
and in conjunction with minutes assessed.
And
Why is a PK worth the same each time regardless of the
PP success of your opponent? Some teams are killers on
the PP and others are anemic.
If they stay 27-28th, that is fine with me.
In order to climb up that list at this point in the season….
You have to take a lot of penalties in order to successfully kill them.
Keep the number of penalties per game low.
Posted by HockeyTownTodd on 02/23/09 at 01:26 PM ET
Can the Sharks beat the Wings, I’m sure they can. After all the Colts finally got over the hump by beating the Patriots in 2006. I dont think the Sharks have any holes other than the mental aspect of past playoff failures. Detroit’s PK and goaltending has been terrible this year. Both the Sharks and Wings dont need their goaltending to be great just dont let in bad goals at the wrong time. It would be a great playoff series but it is the NHL playoffs so its probably going to the #7 hosting #8 in the WCF.
Posted by SJSharkie on 02/23/09 at 01:30 PM ET
I dont think the Sharks have any holes other than the mental aspect of past playoff failures.
Considering how many goals the Sharks have been giving up lately, I’m giving blue-liners and goaltending a push as far as comparing the two teams. I think it’ll come down to depth and the Wings have more of it.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 02/23/09 at 01:37 PM ET
So when’s the next one?
Posted by Nate A from Shot missed by Mikael Samuelsson(Over Net) on 02/23/09 at 12:23 AM ET
The rest of the schedule isn’t looking too stellar, but the last home game against the Hawks (April 11th & it’s a matinee game) could be interesting if they close up on us some.
Or we can wait til the playoffs and see if we can scrape up enough tickets?
Posted by MOWingsfan19 on 02/23/09 at 01:42 PM ET
Of course, this is assuming that San Jose isn’t knocked out in the first round by Columbus.
Don’t tell me I’m the only person who has considered that possibility. Columbus is also big and fast, they are very tough, well-coached, and if Mason is on his game I like their goaltending better than Nabakov (no slight to Nabokov, he’s very good, but I think Mason has the potential to be airtight for several consecutive games). Motivation will not be a problem, as it will be the first playoff appearance ever for the Blue Jackets, and the Sharks might be looking past the first round a little bit and guarding against their habitual second round letdown.
Wild cards, of course, are how Columbus reacts to their first playoff appearance (they will probably feel like the butterflies in their stomachs are turning back into caterpillars) - coaching will be important in making sure they settle down and don’t get so tight they can’t skate properly - and what kind of changes they make at the deadline.
But I could see it happening, easily, and San Jose not even making it to the second round.
**********
San Jose vs. Wings series?
Good freaking lord, that’s a difficult one to call - the magic eight ball would ask me to try again because the outcome is cloudy. I think, if both teams make it that far, it will be close, probably with more than a little bit of overtime ... but my biased opinion is that Detroit squeaks out a win.
(I hope!)
Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 02/23/09 at 01:42 PM ET
Considering how many goals the Sharks have been giving up lately, I’m giving blue-liners and goaltending a push as far as comparing the two teams. I think it’ll come down to depth and the Wings have more of it.
If your talking about 5 goals allowed during the last 3 games, all sharks wins than thats not a lot of goals. The Sharks penalty kill has been terrible of late though.
Posted by SJSharkie on 02/23/09 at 01:45 PM ET
Yeah, JJ- I’m with you there. I don’t see the wings ES goals to be a problem. 5 versus 5, no team skates talent like Detroit. I was just responding to the “PP as a strength” hoopla- that’s the kind’ve thing that makes me scratch my head.
Posted by shanetx on 02/23/09 at 01:50 PM ET
The Sharks lost to Columbus twice in Columbus this year where they badly outplayed them. Im even suprised they are in the playoff race, considering they have very little talent outside of Nash and Mason.
I still dont see the Sharks losing in the 1st round, they have won 6 straight 1st round matchups.
Posted by SJSharkie on 02/23/09 at 01:51 PM ET
Jaws, I was talking more of the Devils and Sabres games, not to mention that the Wings have shown themselves more than capable of scoring in bunches against the Sharks. I know that both teams have showed plenty of problems on defense in the previous three games played this season, but are you confident your guys will be able to play run-and-gun if it comes down to that?
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 02/23/09 at 01:53 PM ET
Don’t get too obsessed with PK numbers.
Words of wisdom from Gramps. The plain truth is any individual statistic is inusufficiently detailed, and is indicative of a number of factors rather than one singular factor. Bad +/-? Well, what’s your goalie’s SV%? Good PK? How many penalties do you take, for how many minutes? Against whom? And so on.
You can use statistics to prove anything. 47% of people know that.
One thing I will say is I’ll be more interested in the stats over the next twenty games or so isolated. Our PK was so abysmal for the first forty or fifty games that very little will improve the marker overall—but if our PK over the last twenty games or so is back up where it needs to be, there’s very little to worry about there.
It would be a great playoff series but it is the NHL playoffs so its probably going to the #7 hosting #8 in the WCF.
Hell, THAT’S worth placing money on rather than a Sharks-Wings WCF. A loony vote is a sane vote.
Posted by AndrewFromAnnArbor from Fortress Europe on 02/23/09 at 02:00 PM ET
The Devils, Sabres games is where the PK was something like 6 for 13, plus the Devils paid off the refs in the 3rd period. As for playing run and gun, I dont think that matters because teams that play that style dont win Cups, just ask the 2006-2007 Buffalo Sabres.
Posted by SJSharkie on 02/23/09 at 02:00 PM ET
You can use statistics to prove anything. 47% of people know that.
Like most of the 19, you appear fluent in sarcasm. Good one.
8:00 PM tonight..Ducks/Stars
I’m going to try to pick that up online.
Posted by HockeyTownTodd on 02/23/09 at 02:07 PM ET
I have to agree that I don’t want the Wings playing run-and-gun throughout the playoffs and that those kinds of teams don’t tend to win cups. However, I still think that each team has just about the same weaknesses. I guess it will come down to size versus experience.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 02/23/09 at 02:08 PM ET
8:00 PM tonight..Ducks/Stars. I’m going to try to pick that up online.
Okay, Todd, but don’t be disappointed if you don’t see Pronger out there. But do look for Thornton because the Stars are actually playing the Sharks tonight. 
Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 02/23/09 at 02:21 PM ET
Perhaps the Sharks will draw the BJ’s in a 1 vs 8 draw, have to travel East, face gnarly Steve Mason and Rick Nash and eat a heapin helping of a Hitchcock driven Defense shitsandwich. Causing early fatigue or an early exit.
I do not like the looks of Columbus, they are just young and dumb enough to knock someone off on their first playoff season.
Posted by Bhernhard Bhudznev from Traverse City, MI on 02/23/09 at 02:23 PM ET
As for playing run and gun, I dont think that matters because teams that play that style dont win Cups, just ask the 2006-2007 Buffalo Sabres.
Take a gander at Sens of the past few (or more) years for further proof.
I still don’t care to focus on anything but the task at hand, the playoffs are 2 months away… that’s eons in regards to momentum, health/injuries etc etc etc.
Posted by MOWingsfan19 on 02/23/09 at 02:25 PM ET
Perhaps the Sharks will draw the BJ’s in a 1 vs 8 draw, have to travel East, face gnarly Steve Mason and Rick Nash and eat a heapin helping of a Hitchcock driven Defense shitsandwich. Causing early fatigue or an early exit.
That’s the exact sort of crap no one wants to deal with in the playoffs because it’s annoying and officials often forget what the rules are supposed to mean in the playoffs (See Anaheim - 2007).
Columbus, if they make it, is going to be someone’s nightmare scenario dragging it out making things a six or seven game series and make the coach of the higher seeded team want to blow his brains out.
Posted by HockeyJoe from Upstate New York on 02/23/09 at 02:46 PM ET
Stars are actually playing the Sharks tonight.
Thanks OTC,
Apparently I need supervision when I tab from page to page.
Posted by HockeyTownTodd on 02/23/09 at 04:01 PM ET
San Jose has clearly been better than Detroit so far this year, but I think Detroit is fundamentally a better, more skilled team, so I give them a slight edge. Home ice will matter, how quickly each team gets through the first two rounds will matter, and injuries will obviously matter. Even little details way outside each team’s control will matter, like playoff seeding. If Detroit winds up playing, say, Dallas and Calgary in the first two rounds, they’ll have travelled through a lot more time zones than a San Jose team that matched up against L.A. and Vancouver.
Nobody in the East is as good as Detroit or San Jose, because the West is just that much better. Washington may be about as good as Chicago, and Boston may be a little better, but the Wings and Sharks are on a different level. But of course, any playoff team can win a series against any other playoff team—that’s why they play the games.
A lot of people have been complaining about the Wing’s defence this year, but it really hasn’t been bad. Osgood’s been bad, and the penalty kill has been bad. Factor out those two things, and the Wings have been one of the best defensive teams in the league. I’m not worried about Osgood, because Babcock can just play Conklin, but the PK really terrifies me. And it matters—remember the Dallas/Anaheim series last year? You can say refs don’t call penalties in the playoffs, but you sure won’t be saying that when it’s playoff time and the Wings are on their third penalty kill in a row in a one-goal game. That will happen, by the way.
Don’t get too obsessed with PK numbers.
...
You can use statistics to prove anything. 47% of people know that.
Then instead of dismissing the overwhelming statistical evidence that the Wings PK is downright terrible, use statistics to prove that the Wing’s penalty kill is fine.
Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 02/23/09 at 04:13 PM ET
Wings win, of course. It won’t be easy but we have a better chance than them.
Posted by SYF from a "Bron-Y-Aur Stomp" on 02/23/09 at 04:26 PM ET
I now come w/Avatar. I feel official now.
Great choice Tyler! Pavs looks like the “mad” Russian.
Lets Go Red Wings!!!!!
Posted by Kate from Pa.-made in Detroit on 02/23/09 at 06:00 PM ET
Wings win.Bitches.
Lets Go Red Wings!!!!!
Posted by Kate from Pa.-made in Detroit on 02/23/09 at 06:02 PM ET
If they stay 27-28th, that is fine with me.
In order to climb up that list at this point in the season….
You have to take a lot of penalties in order to successfully kill them.Keep the number of penalties per game low.
Posted by HockeyTownTodd on 02/23/09 at 01:26 PM ET
You see? This is so Freaking Genius that The Delicate Genius Himself could never figure this out. Well played HTT.
Posted by RWBill from the Land of 12 in 12. on 02/23/09 at 06:15 PM ET
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It’s impossible to say who’s going to end up in the Conference Finals. But, in my opinion, it’s pretty difficult to make a convincing argument, based on both teams’ play this year, that the Wings could beat San Jose in a 7-game series (Why do people always say that? What other kind of series is there?). Especially without home ice advantage, which will likely be the case. (Then again, the Wings didn’t have any problems winning on the road in the playoffs last year.)
I’m sorry. I hope I’m wrong. But San Jose has that ‘97 Wings feel about them to me. It may just be their time. Or they may end up tanking in the 1st Round again. What do I know? But this Sharks team just “feels” different to me than in previous years. Then again, I probably thought the same thing about the Wings in ‘95 and ‘96, and look where that got us.
Now, all that said, the team from either conference I’m honestly most worried about right now is Washington. Of all the teams I’ve watched play this year, they look the most dangerous. The are f*cking huge and f*cking talented. There isn’t a team in the East that’s going to touch them in the playoffs this year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they get to the Finals having not gone more than 5 games deep into any series. I think they’re that good.
But can they beat a San Jose or a Detroit? Who knows?
So…in summary…I have no f*cking idea about any of this. I’ve learned not to expect anything over the years. But my gut is telling me the WCF is going to be Det/SJ, with SJ winning in 6 or 7.
It hurts me to type that.
Posted by Mandingo from The Garage on 02/23/09 at 09:48 AM ET