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Abel to Yzerman

Portzline:  Genius

by IwoCPO on 02/23/09 at 08:19 AM ET
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I haven’t been paying too much attention to the various power rankings this year.  And you know me, so you know why.  If the Wings aren’t sitting on top of them, then those polls simply don’t exist in my mind.  Right. Wrong. It’s how I…you get the idea.

But hark.  What’s this?

Columbus Post Dispatch/Portszline

1. Detroit (1): It’s pretty remarkable that despite substantial goalie issues the Wings are closing in on 40 wins already.

2. San Jose (3): Yes, we see they’ve won three straight. But it’s this simple: We expect them to lose on Tuesday in Detroit.

We’re going to forgive young Aaron his calendar mistake and assume he knows a lot more than most other MSM hockey writers. 

Like I said, I don’t know where the Wings stand in the other polls. And there is absolutely zero chance I’ll be expending the energy required to find out.  But it does bring up a very simple question, one I’d like each of you to ponder and perhaps even discuss.  Are the Red Wings better than San Jose?

Better question. Can the Sharks beat Detroit in a playoff series, even with home-ice advantage?

Top of my head, here are some of the factors that need to be considered:

—Goaltending.  No matter who is in net, Conklin or a rejuvenated Osgood (and that’s the only way he’ll be there, if he’s rejuvenated…and consider everything that would have to happen between now and then for Chris Osgood to be starting the Western Conference Finals), I believe the Wings are not at the disadvantage everyone believes they would be.  When this matchup takes place, if it does, it means either Conklin or Osgood has played very, very well.  Well enough to get the Wings there.  Nabokov?  He hasn’t impressed me yet and I don’t know that he will.  Based on his performances against the Wings to date, he definitely doesn’t scare me…not like Luongo would, or a Kipper would, or even a Mason would.

—Firepower.  Yeah, they’ve got some. Thornton and Marleau, obviously.  Setoguchi, Clowe and Pevelski.  Cheechoo and Grier.  A few others.  Balanced, dangerous to the tune of 2.5 lines deep, maybe 3. But no more explosive than Detroit.  In fact, with Leino on the fourth line, no team in the league has the kind of scoring potential spread across every line.  Is the Wing advantage a dramatic one? No, and it could be counteracted by bad goaltending. But so could everything, and bad goaltending would prevent this playoff matchup from ever happening anyway.

—Blue line.  I can’t speak to their ability to shut down a top line or two.  I haven’t watched them enough and I don’t trust stats to the point that numbers would really do this area justice.  I know Blake’s having a resurgent year and Boyle’s awesome offensively.  I see Brad Lukowich back there and I dig that.  But there are five defensemen on that team who have in excess of fifty games played.  Lukowich is in the 30’s and so is Semenov. What that tells me is that their blueline has played together, almost intact, the entire year and that’s dangerous for us.  At the very least, defensively—right now—they’re on par with the Wings.  That could change if Stuart comes back perfectly healthy and effective, Kronwall continues to gradually yank his head out of his own ass and Lilja keeps being someone other than Lilja.  There is danger, in Chelios, Meetch and Lebda.  Each scare you for different reasons.  Edge to San Jose on the blue line.

—Coaching.  Oh, now that’s interesting eh?  We all know Todd McClellan is being hailed as the young genius around the league.  We all know he was singularly responsible for the Wing penalty kill, goaltending, good hygiene habits and tutoring any kids of Wing players in mid-level Science courses.  In other words, he was probably an asset we’re missing. But, c’mon, he couldn’t have meant that much.  Now…where could he hurt us?  He’s probably got a better idea how to stop the Wing power play than anyone else in the league.  Thinkin’ ain’t doin’ of course.  And here’s the thing with McClellan.  I’m going to withhold judgment on just how good he is in terms of his effect on San Jose until the Sharks fall behind in a playoff series.  Let’s see the magic when bad memories of playoffs losses start to seep in and the red headed kid is rocking and swaying in the room, sucking his thumb and wondering if it’s all gonna come crashing down again.  And Uncle Mike? I don’t have to tell you about him.  He’s the best coach in the league.  I may change that assessment if I see Kris Draper as a healthy scratch again, but I doubt it.  Advantage, for now: Wings.

—Intangibles.  The Wings know how to win a playoff series. They just do.  San Jose hasn’t proven that, but man they want to prove a whole bunch of bastards wrong, don’t they?  San Jose is a hungry team.  The Wings? We haven’t seen that yet and that’s a fact and a concern.  Home ice?  It looks like San Jose would have it and I’ll tell you now that worries me.  More because I don’t like the idea of having to win one of the first two in San Jose.  In fact, it makes me sick to my stomach. But by then?  By then, the Wings will have either proven that winning on the road is a strength or they will have been eliminated.  We’ll see.  Lemieux.  I literally believe his presence, if he’s in there, would be an advantage to Detroit.  He’s a dirty scumbag who has nothing to offer offensively.  At some point, he’s going to try and compensate for the fact that he has no impact with the puck and do something stupid.  Count on it.

Did that answer my question?  No.  Do I believe the Wings are a better team than San Jose?  I don’t know. 

But do I believe they’ll beat them in the Conference Finals?  No I don’t.  Because I don’t think San Jose’s gonna be there.

Cop-out?  Sure.  Re-phrase.  “If San Jose were to make it to the Conference Finals and they were to play Detroit, who would win?”

Wings, in 6.   

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

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