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Abel to Yzerman

SC Playoff Preview:  Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (7)

by Jeff OKWingnut on 04/14/09 at 05:50 PM ET
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Statistics, numbers, MSM predictions, opinions, and scouting reports;  just about anything and everything having to do with this opening round match-up can be found below; Bitches.  I intend to update this post as more current information becomes available. I also know that you are trembling with anticipation for the fact that the GDT will continue until “12”.  As usual the GDT will have the most recent news on injuries and line combinations.

Previews aplenty.

Best first, from perhaps one of the better analytical minds in the MSM, Eric Duhatschek, Globe and Mail:

No. 2 Detroit Red Wings v. No. 7 Columbus Blue Jackets

They would never say it publicly, but this is the preferred opponent for the Wings. The trip to Columbus is a short commute; for a veteran team, the cross-country travel to play the Ducks — the last team that beat them back in the ‘07 playoffs — would have been a nightmare. On this year’s performance, Columbus holds a decided edge in the goaltending matchup — rookie Steve Mason versus Chris Osgood — but the Jackets gave up 14 goals in their final two outings of the regular season, with a higher seed on the line, meaning they’re not exactly cruising into the playoffs. Detroit’s experience and overall depth will win the day.

RED WINGS IN SIX

The Hockey News:

SEASON SERIES
Detroit - 3-2-1 (18 GF, 17 GA)
Columbus - 3-3-0 (17 GF, 18 GA)

LEADING SCORERS VS. OPPONENT
Detroit - Pavel Datsyuk, 9 (1G, 8A)
Columbus - Rick Nash, 6 (6G, 0A)

SPECIAL TEAMS
Talk about a study in contrasts. Detroit has the No. 1 power play in the league, while Columbus ranks dead-last. On the penalty kill, things even up, as the Blue Jackets are a respectable 13th in the league, while the Wings struggled to 25th overall. The key in this series will be for Columbus to stay out of the box. The Jackets were tied for 13th in the league in times shorthanded this season, getting the gate an average of 4.2 times per game. With Detroit scoring at a 25.5 percent pace on the man advantage, that’s a goal per night right there.  Edge: Detroit

FORWARDS
The Wings boast the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner in Henrik Zetterberg, not to mention Pavel Datsyuk, who was also a contender for 2008 playoff MVP and is himself a Jackets killer. Watch for Datsyuk’s two-way play to factor into the post-season once again. Marian Hossa’s groin is wonky, but the Wings still have plenty of other weapons such as Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen and Dan Cleary. Rick Nash will make his first sojourn into the NHL playoffs for Columbus and the captain will have to be firing on all cylinders. R.J. Umberger was a playoff hero for Philadelphia last year, while physical forecheckers such as Raffi Torres and Jared Boll will make life miserable for Detroit. Edge: Detroit

DEFENSE
Detroit’s top duo of Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski is one of the best tandems in the league and Niklas Kronwall and Brad Stuart were fantastic during the ’08 Cup run. How players such as rookie Jonathan Ericsson and sparsely-used Chris Chelios play will be a factor. Columbus has won all season on defense and goaltending and that’s not going to stop now. Led by lunch-pail minute-munchers Mike Commodore and Jan Hejda, the crew is steady and knows its role. Undersized offensive defenseman Kris Russell will be intriguing to watch. Edge: Detroit

GOALTENDING
Steve Mason is the slam-dunk, sure-thing Calder Trophy winner this season and the Vezina and Hart are not silly fantasies. The rookie netminder has vaulted his Blue Jackets into their first post-season and his big-stage experience at the world juniors will help his nerves. On the other side, Detroit has lugged Chris Osgood along all season. Despite leading the Wings to a Cup last year, Ozzie has been inconsistent and porous, with a goals-against average nearly one full goal worse than Mason’s. Clearly Detroit’s Achilles’ heel. Edge: Columbus

COACHING
Along with Mason, Ken Hitchcock has been a savior for Columbus. The crafty old coach has a Stanley Cup ring from his days in Dallas and his players have bought into his safe, defensive system. If they can execute it, they’re dangerous, as the Wings found out several times in the regular season. For Detroit, Mike Babcock has a ring from last year and has always had success in the playoffs, albeit with loads of talent at his disposal. Not that anyone in Detroit is complaining about that – he still gets the best out of his guys. Edge: Even

THE X-FACTOR
Stanley Cup hangover vs. first-time jitters. The numbers are pretty black and white. In the past five seasons, the Cup winner has either lost in the first round or missed the playoffs altogether the next season. Detroit has played a lot of games in the past few years and aren’t exactly a young team. Meanwhile, Columbus can look at the previous two teams to make their NHL playoff debuts and wince: Atlanta (swept in ’07) and Nashville (dusted in ’04, still haven’t won a round). Which team will break its respective curse?

PREDICTION
Hangovers aside, Detroit is simply too poised to be thrown off by a division rival who played them as tough as anyone this season. The Blue Jackets can always hang their hats on the 8-2 spanking they gave the Wings earlier in the season, but when it comes down to crunch time, it’s hard to go against players such as Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Lidstrom, all of whom have been there, done that, in the playoffs. Detroit in six

Predictions from the crew at ESPN

Matthew Barnaby:  Wings in 5
John Buccigross :  Wings in 6
Scott Burnside:  Wings in 5
E.J. Hradek:  Wings in 6
Pierre LeBrun:  Wings in 5
Barry Melrose: Wings in 6

Lyle Richardson a/k/a Spector from Foxsportsweighs in with his preview and pick:

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (7):

This would appear a mismatch at first glance: The defending Cup champion Wings against a Jackets team making its first playoff appearance in postseason history.

But it might not be as lopsided as it appears as the two split their season series, 3-3. The Red Wings possess plenty of experience, tremendous firepower, a solid defense and a strong puck possession game. Yet their goaltending has been average, which could prove a fatal flaw.

The Jackets have some seasoned postseason veterans on their roster, but they’ll be looking toward franchise player Rick Nash — making his playoff debut — to lead them offensively. They’re well-coached by Ken Hitchcock and rookie goalie sensation Steve Mason was the main reason the Jackets clinched a berth. Detroit has the advantage in overall depth and experience but this series could turn on the goaltending. Spector’s pick: Wings in six

TSN has an in-depth preview of the matchup, so long that I omitted the BJ’s (doh!):

DETROIT RED WINGS

Regular Season Record: 51-21-10, 112 pts
Head-to-Head Record: 3-2-1
Last Stanley Cup Win: 2008
Last Stanley Cup Final Appearance: 2008
Last Postseason Appearance: 2008
Players with Stanley Cup Rings: Pavel Datsyuk (2), Henrik Zetterberg (1), Brian Rafalski (3), Jiri Hudler(1), Johan Franzen (1), Nicklas Lidstrom (4), Nicklas Kronwall (1), Mikael Samuelsson (1), Dan Cleary (1), Valtteri Filppula (1), Tomas Holmstrom (4), Tomas Kopecky (1), Kris Draper (4), Brett Lebda (1), Andreas Lilja (1), Brad Stuart (1), Kirk Maltby (4), Aaron Downey (1), Darren McCarty (4), Darren Helm (1), Chris Chelios (3), Chris Osgood (3)

A reason to cheer for the Red Wings: No team has repeated as Stanley Cup champions since…well, the Red Wings in 1997 and 1998. Virtually every member of the team owns a Stanley Cup ring, the exceptions being offseason acquisitions Marian Hossa and Ty Conklin. Ironically, both played for the Pittsburgh Penguins last season and were on hand to watch the Wings celebrate their 11th Stanley Cup title in franchise history. If the Wings do end up winning it all again, will the ageless Chris Chelios retire?
What They Bring To The Table: Thanks to their victory last year, the Wings - more than any other team - know what it takes to win. Their veteran core of Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Holmstrom and Osgood all have multiple Stanley Cup rings. They are able to roll out four lines every night with every single player understanding their role on the team. Head coach Mike Babcock has done a fantastic job keeping his team focused this season when there could have been a serious Stanley Cup hangover. The Wings’ forwards are as good a group as you will find in the league with no fewer than five 20 goal scorers. What truly separates Detroit from the pack is their defensive unit. Led by perennial Norris Trophy candidate Nicklas Lidstrom, the Wings blueline is absolutely stacked with a nice mix of puck movers and bangers. They are also battle tested thanks to last year’s championship run. The Wings’ one weak link may well be their goaltending, as starter Chris Osgood struggled through his worst season in recent memory. Babcock has stood by his keeper, even when he was being severely outplayed by backup Conklin. Babcock knows that ‘Ozzie’ has been there before and knows how to win. It remains to be seen if he can repay his coach’s confidence in the playoffs.

Statistical keys to the series
- Detroit ranked first in the league on the power play, with a 25.5% success rate. Columbus ranked 30th at 12.7%.

- Detroit ranked 25th in the league in penalty killing, with a 78.3% success rate. Columbus ranked 13th at 82.1%.

- Brad Stuart (157), Tomas Kopecky (109) and Daniel Cleary (107) are the Red Wings’ leading hitters.

- Mike Commodore (201), Jan Hejda (168) and Jared Boll (153) are Columbus’ leading hitters.

- Kris Draper is the Red Wings’ top face-off man—60.3%.

- Antoine Vermette is the Blue Jackets’ top face-off man—57.7%. Vermette’s totals include games with Ottawa.

- Detroit’s Marian Hossa and Columbus’ Rick Nash tied for fifth in the league with 40 goals.

- Detroit’s Pavel Datsyuk ranked fifth in the league with 65 assists.

- Detroit’s Pavel Datsyuk ranked fourth in the league with 97 points.

- Detroit’s Pavel Datsyuk ranked third in the league at plus-34. Nicklas Lidstrom ranked seventh at plus-31.

- Columbus’ Rick Nash tied for second in the league with five shorthanded goals.

- Detroit’s Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen tied for seventh in the league with eight game-winning goals.

- Pavel Datsyuk led the Red Wings with eight points in five games against Columbus this year.

- Rick Nash led the Blue Jackets with six points in six games against the Red Wings this year.

- Detroit’s leaders in power play ice time (per game):
Nicklas Lidstrom 3:55
Brian Rafalski 3:45
Henrik Zetterberg 3:28
Pavel Datsyuk 3:18
Tomas Holmstrom 3:17
Marian Hossa 3:03

- Columbus’ leaders in power play ice time (per game):
Kristian Huselius 3:54
Fedor Tyutin 3:47
Rick Nash 3:38
Kris Russell 3:18
Jason Williams 3:13*
R.J. Umberger 2:54
* Jason Williams’ totals include time with Atlanta.

- Detroit’s leaders in penalty killing ice time (per game):
Nicklas Lidstrom 3:27
Andreas Lilja 3:20
Brad Stuart 2:49
Niklas Kronwall 2:30
Kris Draper 2:05
Daniel Cleary 2:01

- Columbus’ leaders in penalty killing ice time (per game):
Jan Hejda 3:58
Mike Commodore 3:44
Rostislav Klesla 3:08
Antoine Vermette 3:01*
Manny Malhotra 2:49
Fedor Tyutin 2:37
* Antoine Vermette’s totals include time with Ottawa.

The CBC has a page dedicated to the series:

Detroit Red Wings

51-21-10 | 112 Points | 2nd in West

Key Numbers:  GF:295 GA:244 PP:25.5% PK:78.3%

Strengths:
They are the defending champions, they have two top forwards in Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, who are as good offensively as they are defensively. They have all-world defenceman Nick Lidstrom, who will be up against Rick Nash. They have depth, good defence, and are solid in virtually every aspect of the game, boasting the league’s best power play.

Weaknesses: 
All eyes will be on the net, where Chris Osgood had his struggles this season. But he is a veteran and a winner. Overall, the Red Wings defensive play was not as tight this season, averaging just less than three goals a game. But this is a team that can tighten up at the right time. If Hossa’s groin is a problem, that will be a big loss. Their penalty killing was surprisingly bad this season, ranking 25th. The good news is the Jackets’ power play was dreadful.

Key Players:
Chris Osgood. Like we said, he doesn’t have to be great, just good.

Completing the round-table of previews, Mike Brophy, Sportsnet:

(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (7) Columbus Blue Jackets
8.3 Sportsnet.ca ranking (Out of 10) 6
Wings   Jackets
112 Regular season points 92
72 % How the readers voted 28 %
 
Mike Brophy: It has been a nice ride for the Columbus Blue Jackets in their first foray into the Stanley Cup playoffs. And given the magic 20-year-old goalie Steve Mason has worked this season, they should be capable of playing the Red Wings pretty close.

But the Red Wings are on a mission to win back-to-back Cups and the Blue Jackets will not trip them up.

Still, the way Ken Hitchcock has coached the Blue Jackets this season, they won’t be pushovers. They play a solid defensive game and when there were defensive breakdowns, Mason usually saved the day.

However, as good an offensive force as Rick Nash is, the Red Wings Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Marian Hossa are all better two-way players. And the Red Wings depth up front seems endless with the likes of Johan Franzen, Tomas Holmstrom, Mikael Samuelsson, Jiri Hudler and Valtteri Filppula to name a few.

The Red Wings biggest concern is between the pipes. Chris Osgood has not enjoyed a banner year and Ty Conklin failed to steal the job away from him. Osgood insists he’ll be better in the playoffs, but talk is cheap. Still, Osgood was in net for two of Detroit’s three recent Cups.

With all due respect to the Blue Jackets, the clock is about to strike midnight.

Sportsnet.ca prediction: Detroit in five.

The Sportsnet.ca rather rosy Wings’ analysis:

Mark Spector: Defending Stanley Cup champs, and holders of the new benchmark for 100-point seasons with nine straight, nobody better fits the old cliché about The Champ than the Red Wings. Until someone knocks them out, it’s awfully tough to say they are not the best team in the tournament.

OFFENCE: Only the best in the NHL. Most goals per game by 0.3 over anyone else. Most shots per game; best powerplay; best faceoff percentage; tons of snipers; Nick Lidstrom et al on blue-line. This is unquestionably the best offence in the NHL.
Score: 10/10

DEFENCE: Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski and Niklas Kronwall have all been in and around the top 10 in defenceman scoring all season. The reason Detroit has the puck for a higher percentage of the game than any other club is because their d’men are so effective at getting the puck and making sure it gets to a forward in flight. Detroit’s defence is highly, highly skilled, and only Lidstrom is in top 35 among NHL defencemen in average ice time. Chris Chelios will play only if more than one regular is injured.
Score: 9/10

GOALTENDING: Always the Red Wings’ Achilles heel. Chris Osgood comes in as the No. 1 guy, but on a short leash. The problem is, it’s playoffs. By the time they go to backup Ty Conklin, it could be too late. Osgood proved good enough last season, when he had a 2.09 GAA and a .914 save percentage. This season he is over 3.00 and under .890 per cent. GM Ken Holland loses sleep over this, we guarantee you.
Score: 5/10

POWER PLAY: Absolutely the best in the land. They score once every four opportunities, and because they have the puck all the time at even strength, you may say you have to stay out of the box versus Detroit, but it’s almost impossible to do.
Score: 10/10

PENALTY KILLING: The rare sign of weakness: Detroit’s PK has spent time in the bottom five of NHL teams this year. It is the only stat where you’ll see Detroit ranked 26th —- as much a reflection on the club’s goaltending as anything. They can be had here, if a team can force penalties 5-on-5.
Score: 5/10

COACHING: Mike Babcock has succeeded as one of the best in the business. No weak links, with good assistants and an excellent support staff. Management is top notch. They’ve won a Cup so no holes here.
Score: 9/10

EXPERIENCE: Detroit is like San Jose, but with some success to show for their early failures. The Red Wings are the model franchise in the NHL today. They’ve a ton of experience with plenty of Stanley Cup rings to show for it. There is nothing this group has not seen or done before. It’s all there.
Score: 10/10

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