I’m still undecided on the Sign Smyth campaign but I can point out one flaw in your projected lineup: Derek Meech is missing.

Meech can’t be sent back to GR next season without clearing waivers.  That seems to give him a spot in the lineup, ala Kopecky and Hudler this year.  Of course, the Wings could go Darryl Bootland on him and send him down anyway, hoping he gets through.

Quincey, no matter how well he played this spring, can be sent down without clearing waivers.

Posted by Clark on 05/27/07 at 08:16 AM ET

I’m all for signing Smyth. But we just have to make sure we have plenty of salary cap room in two years when we need to re-sign Hank. But if we can sign him for less than 5mil, that shouldn’t be a problem.

Great post by the way.

Posted by Christy on 05/27/07 at 09:28 AM ET

I haven’t double-checked your math but this looks like a swell plan. I think Hasek will get less in base salary, but comes to around 2 with incentives, which can be paid out next year. Then again, he has incentives (I think around 1 mil) from last year that will be carried over to this year so it all evens out I guess.

As for Schneider… eeh. I know he’s 37 and everything, but I think he’ll command more than 3 mil. I don’t see him as the hometown discount type, and Andrei Markov (who had a very similar stat-line) just scored a 20mil/4y contract offer from the Canadiens. And that’s just an offer. Who knows on the crazy open market. Personally I think it’ll be Markov back and not Schneider.

Posted by Pete K from East Lansing on 05/27/07 at 09:44 AM ET

(Live muskrat or dead muskrat?  With your opinion of Bubba’s intelligence, it might be either.)

I don’t know about Ryan Smyth.  I like him and everything--I mean, who doesn’t?--but some team is going to throw a whopping load of cash at him, and no matter how much a player wants to win, the siren song of a huge contract is very very tempting.  Some insane team could easily outbid everyone else, despite the patented stupidity of such a deal with the salary cap.  It would be awfully strange to see him in red and white, though, after an entire career in blue and copper/orange.

Schneider I think is going to draw a lot of interest, and he doesn’t strike me either as the hometown discount type--he’s moved around too much, for one thing.  He may stay if he recognizes that the Red Wings’ system suits him well, because he is encouraged to use his offense more than some other coaches might permit.  I recall that was one of the things he noticed about the Wings when he was first traded to Detroit.

Bertuzzi--backs are tricky things, and make me nervous.  At least I think he fully realizes the opportunity he has to play for a solid team and possibly rehab his reputation, so it will come down to the dollars and cents of a contract for a recently injured, formerly dominant power forward.

Odd that the consistently good teams the Wings have had have actually inhibited developing a young goalie.  So often, rookies develop because the team is so bad, they just figure “why not let the youngster play and see what he can do?  After all, he was a number four draft pick.” Nothing to lose when the team stinks overall.  Detroit so often has a team that is very good apart from that, and needs a solid goaltender or the rest of the team might have a wasted year.  It would be easier if their rebuilding years didn’t also involve playoff runs, as happens with normal hockey teams.

I hope someone records an increasingly wine-influenced conversation between Hasek and Babcock, especially if they both lapse into their native languages of Czech and Babble.  That is going to be some funny stuff.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 05/27/07 at 11:19 AM ET

Generally like that roster, but I think Schneider is way off. I did a computer model for free agent salaries and it spit out $5.4 for Schneider. That might be a bit high, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see some team offer him $5 million.

Posted by The Falconer on 05/27/07 at 11:27 AM ET

Let me say this...I love Ryan Smyth (a former Michigan State Spartan, as am I), and I would love to see him in a Wings uniform.  But I don’t think your math works out.

Ken Holland likes to leave some room under the cap for call ups and trades in case of injury at the end of the season.  Your plan calls for Holland to use all of his money.

Aside from that, the Wings need to spend $900,000 against the 07-08 cap for Hasek’s bonus money, and need to pay Derek Meech $450,000, which only leaves $3.591 million.  I bet Holland would only spend $2 million of that at the maximum, and you can’t get Ryan Smyth for that amount of money.

Aside from that, the Wings are going to need $4 million in extra cap space next year to sign Zetterbeg, who’s contract is up.  He currently makes $2.65 and the Wings will not be able to justify paying him less than Datsyuk, neither do I think they will try to.  In addition, Hasek is a question mark as well.  If he decides to hang up the skates for good this year, the Wings will go after Giguere for $5million+ a season, which would still leave Holland with the cushion of extra cap space he likes to have.  If Hasek comes back, he will almost certainly play only one more season, and after that the Wings will have to dole out money for a goalie next year. 

They can’t add Smyth this year, Bert this year with the promise of a dramatic pay increase next year, Zetterberg next year, and a stud goalie sometime in the next two years.  They have to choose two of the four.

Here is what I see happening.  Holland said to the papers the other day that he is willing to sit pat with his forwards, but that he wants to work on goaltending and defense.  With Langer gone and Grigorenko on the scene, I think that is a good idea.

If Hasek is still unsigned after free agency begins the Wings will go after Giguere hard core and probably let Schneider go unless they can sign him on a bargain.  They may try to sign Sheldon Souray in his place given Souray’s high production and his potency on the power play, but he will be almost if not just as costly as Schneider and he is not as good defensively as Schneider is.  I think it more likely that they will put Quincey in the line-up and use Meech as their swing man between Grand Rapids and Detroit.  There is also an outside chance the Wings will pursue Niklas Backstrom in net from Minnesota.  At 30 he is a seasoned veteran from the Finnish Elite League and he had stellar numbers in both the regular season and playoffs for the Wild.

Outside of that, I see no major changes for the Wings this summer.  The question is, why add Smyth?  The Wings already are a Stanley cup caliber hockey team, and with the departure of Lang, the addition of Grigorenko (who is a LARGE man with a scoring touch) and almost certain increased production from Filpulla, Hudler, and Bertuzzi, it seems to me that the forward units will be much stronger next year than this year anyway.  They key this offseason is goaltending.  If it stays the same, our defense stays the same.  If it gets better, our defense loses Schneider.

Posted by John the Red Wings Fan from East Lansing, MI on 05/27/07 at 01:04 PM ET

Nice post IWO, but it reminds me that last year at this time your #1 priority was sign Gerber at any cost.  Ryan Smyth, would have to be a huge bargain.  You can’t go into the season maxed out on the cap.

and

What about Cleary.?  Talk about a bargain.  Maybe the wings could cash in on another has-been or re-tread, rather than turning Smyth into another Lang, by cutting his ice time until he has no game left.  Some guys only shine if they get a lot of ice time, and that is not going to happen here, The Wings have too much talent not to rotate 4 full lines.  Remember Dats and Zetter sucked at the beginning of the season until they got that extra ice on the PK.  Now, back to Cleary, If the new CBA prohibits re-negotiating his contract (I never even played a Lawyer on TV), they better be slipping him suitcases of cash under the table or he is going to be one bitter dude when his contract runs out.  He may have his bags packed before New Year’s eve.

Posted by Gramps (hockeytowntodd) from HockeyTown on 05/27/07 at 01:15 PM ET

Look dammit.  No one’s allowed to pick on my math, or say anything that could cast a shadow over my dream of landing Smyth. 

And Gramps, yes...I did say we “must sign Gerber at all costs.” But I was in a Legace-induced fog at the time. I was disoriented by his martyrdom.  Now, I’m thinking clearly.

Agreed on Cleary, but he’s just the tip of the iceberg.  Look at the bargains the Wings are smiling about on this year’s roster alone:
Zetterberg: 2.65
Maltby: .833
Homer: 2.25
Filpulla: .710
Cleary: .662
Chelios: .850
Lebda: .650

All would legitimately make 1/3 more on any other team, and in the cases of Fil, Cleary and Lebda: get a lot more ice time.

Posted by IwoCPO from Washington, DC on 05/27/07 at 01:28 PM ET

Iwo, I will admit that despite the numbers I too have been crossing my fingers for a Ryan Smyth deal since January.

Posted by John the Red Wings Fan from East Lansing, MI on 05/27/07 at 02:52 PM ET

John, (go green) I agree with a lot of your points although a minor note of contention - I wouldn’t call Grigorenko LARGE. He’s listed by Red Wings Central as 5’10’’, although he is stocky at 209 lbs. More important than his size is the fact that he plays in traffic and can be a physical player (in addition to his scoring ability). And I agree that he may be the only roster change (besides dumping Lang and Calder) that the Wings need at forward. It’s not unreasonable to think that he can come in and play with the big boys right away, given that he is 24 and has already played a lot of hockey.

Posted by Pete K from East Lansing on 05/27/07 at 03:11 PM ET

I agree with John and Gramps.  The Red Wings finished in the top 10 in goals scored during the regular season and that was with a really bad scoring slump at the beginning of the year and Zetterberg missing the last quarter of the season with an injury.  They also were reasonably proficient as far as scoring in the playoffs.  So the forwards are in pretty good shape, even if the Wings cannot sign Bertuzzi, much less Smyth.

They have to get goaltender taken care of first and then use what the have left to settle their top 4 d-men.  The idea of having Kronwall and Ledba on the top two pairings just scares the crap out of me.

Posted by Dave on 05/27/07 at 05:17 PM ET

Pete, (go white) I couldn’t agree more.  His contract has an unusual clause in it as well that says if the Red Wings ship him back to Grand Rapids, he has the option of terminating the contract and moving back to Russia to play in the elite leauge. 

I hope Igor works out.  If he can get his game back to where it was before his car accident we could be looking at yet another superstar rookie prospect from the Wings.  But if he doesn’t work, the Wings will be able to free up some cap space and move someone else in, either from Grand Rapids or elsewhere.

Posted by John the Red Wings Fan from East Lansing, MI on 05/27/07 at 05:20 PM ET

John - It’s the provision in his deal that makes me think the Wings are really confident he’ll make the team. Either that or they’re really hoping he will.

Dave - I agree that having Kronner and Lebs as the 3/4 makes me nervous too but it’s time for those guys to step up. They’ve been learning from the best for a while now, and we need to see what they can do with loads of PP time, lots of IT, and top competition. If they’re going to develop into good players, they’ll thrive. If not, the Wings will know and can give up on them. I think a team as success-driven as the Wings can only afford to have two types of players: good players, and soon-to-be-good players. We have Quincey, Meech, Kindl, and Ericsson waiting, and kids are always cheap. Let’s find out about Nik and Brett.

Posted by Pete K from East Lansing on 05/27/07 at 06:36 PM ET

Great post Chief; a very helpful starting point to think through this tangle.

John, your (mini) post is right on for the most part.

my basic inclinations:

No Ryan Smyth: unless he pulls a Kariya and comes to Detroit to win a championship--i.e. huge pay cut--he’ll be looking for a four year deal, most likely the largest contract he will receive in his career.

Forwards are going to be solid and livened up with some younger blood. Defense is going to be a bit tricker but I would rather have Schnieder than Markov. The former moves the puck better, is a much better skater and is the perfect mentor for Lebda.

I remember Paul Coffey and LIdstrom being the number one defensive pair, and fantasizing that Lidstrom was under Coffey’s tutelage. Now, Lidstrom trains Kronwall, Schnieder trains Lebda, Cheli trains Lilja; that’s how it works in my head anyway.

Goaltending is indeed a core issue: If not Hasek, then Giggy then Backstrom (who is fantastic). If Hasek for a one year deal, then Kipper becomes a UFA the following year and should be on our short-list, although Howard might be ready by that point.

Hank will have 40 goals next season, Dats in the high 30s but above the 60 assist mark. I think Filpulla will be huge and have a 30 goal season, as will Homer (despite the extra defensive attention recent press coverage brings).

Posted by srt on 05/27/07 at 06:53 PM ET

Now, back to Cleary, If the new CBA prohibits re-negotiating his contract (I never even played a Lawyer on TV), they better be slipping him suitcases of cash under the table or he is going to be one bitter dude when his contract runs out.  He may have his bags packed before New Year’s eve.

I think the CBA does not allow contracts to be renegotiated, but you can negotiate an extension in the last year of the contract.  My guess is that Holland will make very clear to him that he is important to the team, and will be compensated accordingly in his next contract.  Plus, he had no offers before signing with the Wings, so I think the fact they took a chance on him when no one else would and gave him an honest chance to win a spot will alleviate any bitterness.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 05/27/07 at 06:55 PM ET

Minnesota is going to try very hard to sign Backstrom and trade Fernandez, I expect, because Backstrom is fantastic and much cheaper.  Smart move on their part for certain, but I’m not sure who would have a need for Fernandez.  (I don’t remember how much he makes, either.)

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 05/27/07 at 07:04 PM ET

The CBA does not allow for renegotiations.  I’m not sure why Cleary would be upset anyway, he knew what he was getting into when he signed that contract last year.  He made the cut and is a huge part of the best hockey franchise in the league.  He probably knows he’s worth more, but I’m sure he’s happy where he is.  Baroque, you make a good point though...Holland knows he is going to have to pay full price and then some for Cleary next time.

I’m not sure who would take Fernandez either.  That’s gotta be akward for Jacques Lemaire, being that Fernandez is his nephew.

Posted by John the Red Wings Fan from East Lansing, MI on 05/27/07 at 07:39 PM ET

I think Bert will sign for less per year and maybe for two years for about 3 million total with some incentives. I think they pay him less than Homer and little more than Franzen. The cap may come in at 49-50 million as well and we could have enough money to keep the ones they want and add a nice piece. I think the Wings have a better chance adding a player like Forsberg (3-4 million) for a shorter term contract to finish his career with a winning team and add to our swedish gang. Also Schneider (He will be 38) will come with a hometown discount. He does not want to leave at all. His kid is at Country Day and he loves it here. Markov will be had as well with a two year contract, the guy has not stayed anywhere for more than a year. The Wings have to be in one of the best positions of any team in regards to the cap and players wanting to stay for a discount, etc… I would not be surprised after a good playoff run to see Schneider, Hasek, Bertuzzi, Cheli, and Markov all signed before July 1st. We will see then how much money we have to work with.

Posted by jpoke on 05/27/07 at 07:42 PM ET

Smyth turned down 5.4 per to play for the Oilers - what exactly makes you think he would take under 5 now?

John - methinks you’re thinking of Horcoff - was he not a Spartan? Smytty was a WHL grad, meaning he never saw the inside of a University. Maybe not even a high school graduate.

Posted by Pat on 05/28/07 at 09:40 AM ET

I can’t see Smyth taking any less than 5 per year either, probably 5.5 or so--and for a long term contract, too.  I think he has taken hometown discounts before to stay with Edmonton, and this is his only real chance to actually recoup some of the losses from previous years.  I don’t feel bad for him from the money aspect, obviously (he’ll make a ton wherever), but he probably figured that after taking less in past years to help out the team it was their chance to pay him back for his loyalty, especially since with the salary cap all teams will be happy and successful and profitable through the magical influence of the new CBA that saved hockey for all small markets everywhere, and he figured Edmonton had the money to afford to pay him what he wanted.  He’d have been better off to not take less during his prime years, even if it meant getting traded, and removing the excuse of “now he gets hurt a lot and isn’t worth it” from any team’s calculations.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 05/28/07 at 09:51 AM ET

Well, I feel like a horse’s ars.  I thought for sure he went to MSU.  Somebody had better check my math to make sure I didn’t get anything else wrong.

Posted by John the Red Wings Fan from East Lansing, MI on 05/28/07 at 11:18 AM ET

Being from Edmonton, I know the value of Smyth. The wheels completly fell off the wagon when Smitty got traded to the Isles. With Homer on one line and Smitty on another, opposing goalies would have fits night in and night out.

Posted by WingFanInOilCountry from Edmonton, AB on 05/29/07 at 07:59 AM ET

and as for Smyth, he played for the Moose Jaw Warriors in the WHL before playing for the Oil.

Posted by WingFanInOilCountry from Edmonton, AB on 05/29/07 at 08:05 AM ET

No chance on the Wings signing Hasek… the site we don’t mention - you know, Strikland and the like - has him signing with Tampa Bay.  Shucks.

Posted by BDH on 05/29/07 at 09:33 AM ET