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Will Wings Have To Choose Between Schneider and Smyth?
by IwoCPO on 06/30/07 at 12:23 AM ET
Comments (11)
So, Sunday’s July the first; and July the first starts the Summer of Smyth. And the Summer of Smyth better culminate with that frigging hippie eating cheddar in Hockeytown. What seemed unlikely to the pessimistic among you now has a bit more reality attached to it. The 50.3 Cap has given the Wunderkind some breathing room. But a few million dollars doesn’t mean a stress-free existence for our boy Kenny. Nope, he’s got some decisions to make; and one of them just may be the toughest of his tenure as genius behind the dynasty.
Could it come down to a choice between Mathieu Schneider and Ryan Smyth? If so, who do you shell out the bucks to? Ponder that while I dig a bit.
It’s going to come down to numbers, of course. Ryan Smyth can talk about playing for a winner all he wants, and Schneider can smile and say he’s considering the HTD...but both those claims could very well take a back seat to 6 million/year. And the Wings clearly can’t afford to pay 12 for two, no matter who those two are or how that 12’s divided.
Right? Well...maybe. If Holland “loses” Markov and Bertuzzi, the possibilities get a bit more interesting. Heck. The diggers are sensing a push for Smyth, so there must be some serious organ-I-zational discussion going on. Whether it’s 6 apiece, or 7 (Smyth...although that would be high) and 5 (for Schneider, also high but most likely the average offer the market will bear), the Wings still upgrade with at least a million left over for insurance. And those numbers are high. Drop it down to ten million spent between the two (6 and 4?) and all of a sudden Todd Bertuzzi for 2.5 or so is back in the equation.
Easily said, easily written and most likely too tough to accomplish. Not impossible, just really tough.
I’ll be boarding a plane to head back overseas in about two hours, my last trip of the summer. So that means I’ll miss the start, and first week, of free agency. When I return on 8 July I expect the following to have occured:
-Ryan Smyth signs with the Wings. He wants the money and all indications are he wants a Cup just as much. Six million per year for 4 years and the Wings have the two toughest, most irritating forwards in the game.
-Mathieu Schneider says sayonara and heads back to the Kings for six million/year.
-Scott Hannan signs with the Wings for 4 mil/year over two years.
-Hasek returns at 2.5/one year.
-Todd Bertuzzi stays in Detroit for 3 mil per year for two years. If he leaves, the Wings look to Kozlov. If the price isn’t right for either forward, Markov stays in Detroit.
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Comments
Stoetzer: my math is NEVER wrong. And if it is I’ll just edit the post later and delete your comment.
Actually, my spree was based on Helene St. James’ calculations that, including bonuses for the two old men, the Wings will have approximately 16 mil to spend.
Considering I’ve made a pastime of ripping the diggers for everything from hairstyle to dietary habits, it’s odd I’d use her as a reference. But her numbers seem right.
Posted by IwoCPO from Washington, DC on 06/30/07 at 01:40 AM ET
Scott Hannah? 
Math may be fine, but check your spelling. Safe trip.
Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 06/30/07 at 06:48 AM ET
I agree that it’s either Schneider or Smyth. I think the Wings will get Smyth and keep Markov. Maybe Bertuzzi also, but it would make for a tight cap (and probably leave Jiri Hudler on the trading block).
Posted by Pete K from East Lansing, MI on 06/30/07 at 11:34 AM ET
Actually, my spree was based on Helene St. James’ calculations that, including bonuses for the two old men, the Wings will have approximately 16 mil to spend.
Helene’s math is as off as her paper’s Web site is...both suck.
I got so tired of seeing wildly different salary figures for the Wings thrown around that I did the math for myself just to keep things straight. So here’s what I came up with…
The Wings have $36,311,000 committed to 19 players. That total includes an assumed $2.5M for Hasek plus the $116k they still owe against this year’s cap for Hasek’s and Chelios’ bonuses from last season. Adding in a $2M “reserve” fund for deadline acquisitions raises their “committed” money to $38,311,000. Subtracting that from the $50.3M cap for 2007-2008 leaves the Wings with $11,989,000 to spend on one offensive D-man, one defensive D-man & a top-6 forward.
Sooooo, if the Wings sign Schneider for $4.5M and Smyth for $6.0M, They’ll have $1,489,000 left for a defensive D-man (unless they can trade Lilja to someone for a prospect or picks).
Personally, I’d rather see the Wings let Schneider go and sign Preissing for about $3.0M. Then they could sign Smyth and still have $3.0M for a defensive D-man (like Markov, or maybe Andy Sutton). If they sign Schneider, then I hope they forget about Smyth and go after Kozlov (for no more than $4.0M). I’d love to see what a Kozlov/Datsyuk/Grigorenko line would look like.
Anyway, you can check my numbers here.
Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 06/30/07 at 12:02 PM ET
I think the Wings will get Smyth and keep Markov. Maybe Bertuzzi also, but it would make for a tight cap (and probably leave Jiri Hudler on the trading block).
Actually, Pete, if Bertuzzi would sign for $2.5M, Smyth for $6.0M and Markov for $3.0M, the Wings would still have nearly half a mil left in their “cap-money-to-spend” fund. And Jiri could stay...so Babcock could play him every other game for five minutes. Lucky Jiri. 
Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 06/30/07 at 12:12 PM ET
Looking at your chart it seems you’ve allocated 116K to Hasek/Chelios bonuses, whereas to my knowledge their added bonuses are more like 1.1M (damn decimal place...) Also I assumed Bert would get 3M as Ansar Khan and Iwo seem to think. Also, if we only bring back Markov, we need to call up at least one D-man, so that’s another 500K.
According to my math, if we get Bert at 3, Markov at 3, and Smyth at 6, it leaves us around 800K in cushion money. Trade Hudler and it’s more like 1.3M. Which is lower that Holland would like, but I could definitely live with it.
Posted by Pete K from East Lansing on 06/30/07 at 01:09 PM ET
Looking at your chart it seems you’ve allocated 116K to Hasek/Chelios bonuses, whereas to my knowledge their added bonuses are more like 1.1M
The reports I’ve seen say that all but $116k of the $1.1M owed to them was covered by last season’s cap.
As for Bert getting $3.0M, I just don’t see it. The Wings would have to give up a second-round pick if they sign him so I don’t think they’ll pay more than $2.5M for him. But, hey, that’s just my opinion...probably worth less than the traditional 2¢.
You’re right about my missing the extra D-man. In the Bert + Smyth + Markov scenario, the Wings probably would go with Meech as the 7th D-man (which would eat up the remaining half mil of “available” cap space).
What I should have added before was that I don’t see the Wings adding two forwards and two defenseman to the 19 guys already accounted for. What they need is two D-men and a top-6 forward.
So, I’m guessing they’ll go after Smyth first (because everyone else will be after him tomorrow at noon). If they get him, Schneider has to sign for $4.5M (or less) or he’s gone. If Schneider is gone, they could offer Markov (or Sutton) and Preissing $3.0M each and end up with the offensive and defensive D-men they need, even if Preissing isn’t an exact replacement for Schneider.
Anyway, as much as I like Schneider, that final scenario (Smyth + Markov (or Sutton) + Preissing) is what I personally hope happens.
Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 06/30/07 at 01:44 PM ET
Watch your six sailor. Be safe.
Meanwhile, I can dream that all of them somehow fit under the cap can’t I?
Posted by Grouchy Hippo on 06/30/07 at 05:13 PM ET
IF your after smyth+bert, trade sammy for a pick. You still have kopecky as a healthy scratch, and you save 1.2 mil.(and get a pick, even if its a late 1, in the process) If the wings are looking at getting 2 defensemen(By retaining their own or going for ufas), trade lilja, save 1 mil. Or do both
As for smyth, i just dont see how you justify paying a career 60ish point forward 6 mil. Hes got character and leadership(which we have in spades), and he is 1 of the top 2 screeners/deflectors in the league(we have the other). Other than that hes a pretty average player scoring nearly 50% of his goals in the last 2 years on the power play..I like smyth quite a bit, but 5-6 mil is pretty steep.
Posted by aTTIcA on 07/01/07 at 12:17 AM ET
aTTIcA I completely agree. I would love to see Smyth in Wings uniform but for 6 mill?!?!? Just looking at some of these salaries and not the players you would think teams are sighning players like Gretzky in their golden years. Some of these players getting 6-8 mill a year for 7 years casual hockey fans have never heard of. Either teams are desperate or GMs have lost their minds. Lets just hope Holland isn’t one of them.
Posted by Josh from Mich on 07/01/07 at 08:36 PM ET
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Depending on how much of the bonuses for Chelios and Hasek count against next year’s cap. It’s possible that you may have exceeded the cap with your spending spree there.
Posted by PRStoetzer on 06/30/07 at 01:27 AM ET