Leino replacing William Tell? Do you think that Leino’s skill set is more akin to Hudlers?

I like Hudler a lot, and have disagreed with you on past deadlines, but maybe Leino can replace him. Top six on any team? I don’t know about that. Huds is sneaky and works well in the bottom six, where he plays fewer minutes, and makes the most out of them. If he’s on the top six, he gets shut down by top line defenders.

A rookie goalie tandem? i hope one of them develops into what the Wings have never had (at least in my short time on earth), a franchise goalie. Could you imagine that? No more stress over goalies? It wouldn’t seem right.

I like the idea of keeping Franzen, he’s home grown talent. But, if they can only keep one, the answer is obvious.

Posted by Aaron from phoenix on 02/17/09 at 02:14 PM ET

Chief, I completely, totally, and utterly agree with everything you just said. Just one question: what about the Pylon? If Sammy leaves, and Lilja leaves, who does that leave for us to give our misguided and irrational frustration?

We have all this talent in GR, but everyone’s been wondering how they’re all gonna be able to come up? Well, just like that. We’d have to part with some memorable guys who have given us some good laughs, but business is business.

Some may say it’d be nuts to go with two rookie goalies, but hell, there’s only one way for them to get the experience.

But so, with all your moves, I think the offense would look like this:

Dangle,Dangle-Hank-Homer
eVille-Wally-Big Hoss
Charlie Buckets-Helm-Mule
Abadabbadoo-Drapes-Happy

Me likey.

Posted by Alzy from Innisfail, Alberta, Canada on 02/17/09 at 02:24 PM ET

Keep Franzen. Keep Hossa.  Keep Oompa. Bring the kids up, all of them...and let’s see where it takes us.  Yeah...I’m talking rookies in goal, two of them on defense, at least two of them up front if you want to call Helm, Leino and Home Keys rookies.

I’m down.  I think we’d see alot more interesting games from these kids.  More stressful?  Sure.  But they’d be out there with something to prove and a hunger that sometimes gets lost when you’ve won cups.  That’s right I said cups bitches.  We’d have 4-6 kids that haven’t won it yet.  Sure they are part of the Organization but they have not won it yet. 

The young guns have really proved themselves the past few weeks and I’d be comfortable with them in your situation, Chief.  The only variable I’d be concerned with would be the goalies.  But hey, it’s the Wings.  When are we not concerned about our goalies?

Posted by WingsFanInBeanLand from Earth. on 02/17/09 at 02:26 PM ET

Great catch Alzy.  Fixed.

Posted by IwoCPO from Washington, DC on 02/17/09 at 02:27 PM ET

Okay Chief, I’ll crunch numbers, from nhlnumbers.com (for ‘09 - ‘10):

Forwards:

Datsyuk 6.7
Zetterberg 7.4
Homer 2.25

Hoss ?
Mule ?
Cleary 2.5

Hudler ?
Fil 2.5
Leino ??

Helm .500
Draper 2.25
Abdelkader .710

Defense:

Lidstrom 7.45
Rafalski 6.0

Stuart 3.75
Kronwall 3.25

Meech .500
Lilja 1.25

Goal:

Larsson:  ??
Howard:  .750

Total under contract: 

Forwards:  24.81
Defense:  22.20
Goal: .750

TOTAL:  47.76

Estimated cap = 56?

9 million to sign:  (F) Hoss, Mule, Hudler, Leino,
(D) Ericcson
(G) Larsson

Assuming Leino, Ericcson and Larsson get minimal money, I still cannot make the math work.  It leaves about 6 to sign Hudler, Mule and Hoss.

I think the Wings would also have to buyout Ozzies 1.45 and 1.1 remaining contract.

Posted by Jeff OKWingnut from Hockey Netherworld on 02/17/09 at 02:37 PM ET

Mr Hossa gave the redwings a discount for 1 year.  To believe that he is going to offer the same discount over multiple years is only really building your hopes up for a severe let down in the offseason.

Franzen will be signed prior to july, but dont expect hossa to be a wing next year.

As for Hossa not being as good at Z or dangle, dangle.... dead wrong.  Hossa is the reason the wings are as good as they are this year.  If the wings had to make a choice, regarding all players minus lidstrom, hossa has to be number 1.

Posted by Mr Hoss on 02/17/09 at 02:41 PM ET

@ Alzy...pardon me lack of knowledge...but who in the hell are Wally, Abadabbadoo, and Happy?

And @ Jeff...isn’t Z’s cap number like 6.1?

Posted by mrfluffy from Cincy on 02/17/09 at 02:42 PM ET

Sign Hoss with ink and paper. 

Try to get Hudler to a decent contract. 

As much as I hate to say it Mule would be on the outside if I were GM.  Hoss has way too much upside.  I love the Mule for all he did in the playoffs last year, but man he has a bad case of the injury bug. 

The numbers just aren’t there, unless Holland is trying to make a multiplayer swap and cut some cap that way.

Posted by Jeff OKWingnut from Hockey Netherworld on 02/17/09 at 02:43 PM ET

You are correct Fluffy, the cap hit for Z is 6.1 (forgot to average).  Add 1 to the avail cash stream.  The numbers from nhlnumbers.com show salary, not cap hit; so the figures may be off a scotch for purposes of exactly determining cap.  But, I say, close enough for the 19 (j/k) discussion purposes. 

Wally = Filpulla
Abbadab = Abdelkader
Happy = Hudler

You just have to hang around for a while.

Posted by Jeff OKWingnut from Hockey Netherworld on 02/17/09 at 02:47 PM ET

Somebody remind me to reread this after the playoffs.  Right now I agree with everything, We’ll see whether euphoria or depression changes that.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 02/17/09 at 02:48 PM ET

My recommendation for goaltenders in ‘09/’10:  Howard and Larsson.

Oh god.  Oh godohgodohgodohgod.

I might have just messed myself at the thought of it.  Please.  I can’t take that.  And I’m an Osgood apologist!  Seriously, Chief.  Take it back.

I’ll just find a padded room to hang out in until you do.

Posted by Incognetis from Exile in Alabama on 02/17/09 at 02:49 PM ET

As much as I hate to say it Mule would be on the outside if I were GM.  Hoss has way too much upside.  I love the Mule for all he did in the playoffs last year, but man he has a bad case of the injury bug. 

The numbers just aren’t there, unless Holland is trying to make a multiplayer swap and cut some cap that way.

No way if i am Holland do i get rid of the heart and soul of the team.  Mule is referred to as such for a reason.  Cleary should not be an option at 2.5.  Forget Hudler too.

Posted by Mr Hoss on 02/17/09 at 02:52 PM ET

I may be wrong but Filppula has an NTC in his contract.

Posted by SYF from Las Vegas, NV on 02/17/09 at 02:56 PM ET

But how?  Well.  I’ll be your huckleberry.

Here we go.

Lebda. UFA after next year?  .850. Gone.  Ericsson: Up.

Chelios.  Gone.  Kindl: Up.

Defensive pairings look like this:

Lidstrom/Rafalski
Kronwall/Kindl
Ericsson/Stuart
Meech

Wrong. Lilja is signed for next season as well, and even if he weren’t, his performance this season has been so strong that I think they’d try and keep him in the fold. Besides, you do know we’re talking about the Wings, right? They won’t put Kindl in the big club. They like ‘em seasoned. Unless he has a Filppula-like camp this off-season, he’s going right back to GR just like Kronwall, Ericsson, Quincey, and Meech did. And given that the book on Kindl is that he’s probably MORE talented then Kronwall but still raw? He’s not an NHL player next season.

And you say Lebda’s gone, but where’s he going? Other clubs know the Wings’ situation—they aren’t going to pony up even late round picks, in my opinion, for guys like Lebda that they know Holland will eventually just have to bite the bullet on and expose, just like he did with Quincey. Nevermind that after his early season benching, Lebda’s been surprisingly reliable in both ends of the ice. Certainly much better than his similar counterpart Meech has been this year in his chances.

Sammy? Gone.  Maltby?  We’ll give you a nice little tribute, one you seriously deserve, later. But for now?  Gone.  Kopecky? If necessary, if it means getting Helm up here?  Gone.  Downey and McCarty? Gone.  Only UFA the Wings re-sign? Franzen.

Sammy, Downey, and Mac are gone, sure. And Kopecky is going into UFA, so easy to let him walk if need be. Not a lot of doubt there. Maltby really is a half-season past his expiration date, but the contract’s still there. Even if the organization completely bucked the trend of respecting veterans that clawed and scratched for Cup victories, buying out Maltby would only save what, $375k? And there’s no doubt—Helm will be a full-time NHLer next season at a half-million pay rate. And don’t be so sure you can just plug Leino in for nothing—he’s going to RFA.

Did I forget one?  Oh. Yep.  Conk?

Gone.

You too Ozzie.  You’re gone as well.

I don’t know how, released, waived, traded. Whatever.  Delude yourselves into thinking this year’s a fluke. Go ahead.  Me?  See ya.  Again, we value what you’ve brought, but seriously...it’s time to move on.  As we say in other organizations, it may be time to retire with your dignity intact.  Cold? Yes, dammit. I know.  But as with Malts...his time in the honorable sun will come.

Fine, let go of the Conk. But with Ozzie you’ve got the same issues as with Maltby, but even more magnified—he’s got two more seasons (not just one) on his contract. A buyout would still cost roughly $750k per season of those two years. Ozzie is a guy that came back to Detroit, made his home here in Plymouth, and by all accounts, plans on staying here one way or another. He took next to nothing on his current contract because he just wanted to be here. And with the whole organizational loyalty issue, he makes getting rid of Maltby look easy, what with being the starter for two Cups, including playing at a borderline Conn Smythe level last season, and then re-signing for dirt when his value had pretty much never been higher.

So, I realize I’ve pointed out why you’re wrong. In fairness, my crystal ball says:
Who Goes?
- Unfortunately, Conklin has to go.
- Franzen has to go.
- Sammy, Mac, Downey, and Kopecky? Gotta go for sure.
- While I think Maltby should be done, he’s not going anywhere unless he surprises us and retires. He’s got that year left, and he will be used.
- Chelios is done as a Red Wing, unless he wants to work off-ice.
- You feel it out and see if you get any bites for Lebda or Meech, even for last-round picks. If you can unload one of them for any asset in return, do it. Otherwise, you will have to bite the bullet and expose one of them to waivers. Never thought I’d say it, but Lebda’s play since his benching, his track-record as a solid number 6/7 defensemen, his playoff experience and success, and his wheels have to make him the choice over Meech in this situation.

Who Stays?
- Like I said above, I think Lebda stays, unless he’s tradeable for any asset, even if it’s a last-round pick. He’s more proven than Meech.
- Ozzie, Lilja, and Malts stay because they have years left on their contracts. In the case of Lilja, he stays because he’s been damn good, too.
- Helm is a full-time NHLer. Never sees the AHL again. Has a Draper-esque career. Not only is his energy and hitting a big boon for the team, but his $500k salary looks fantastic for ‘09-’10, too.
- Leino gets a RFA deal from Holland, worth just what he’s making now, $1 mil tops.
- Hossa stays. Shorter term, but similar cap hit to Zetterberg.
- Hudler stays. Contract almost identical to Filppula’s.

Basically, my scenario goes with the rough estimate that the Wings are about $9-10 million below the cap if it does not change. Since ticket and TV revenue was fixed before the economy really crapped, I’m crossing my fingers they have $10. With that $10, they will pay Hossa 6, Hudler 2.5, Leino 1, and Helm 0.5 million.

With Ericsson coming up making just a tad more than Chelios, and given my rough math on all this, the cap would need to rise by maybe just over $1 mil for this to be truly feasible. Regardless, we have to cross our fingers that Hudler will take less than Flip’s contract, that Hossa comes in for between Z’s 6 and Pav’s 6.7, that Leino won’t get a real raise in exchange for full NHL duty, and that, more importantly, Hudler doesn’t force the team into arbitration, because if he does, he will almost definitely have to be traded before it gets to that point.

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/17/09 at 02:58 PM ET

I’m going to throw something out here:

What if Homer retired?  I’m not saying I want it to happen nor am I saying it’s going to happen.  I’m just saying that given the beating this guy has taken over the years and the pain he’s had to endure these past 2 seasons alone, it’s not inconceivable.

Being a banker and an excel junkie, I’ve put together 4 difference scenarios of how to keep everybody together - all 4 assume a modest $2M increase in the cap.  And before I get hassled on the economy, keep in mind that revenues are up this year as is attendance.  Worst case scenario is that the NHLPA and the NHL agree to keep the cap as is for next season. 

Anyway, in my analysis I have Hossa @ 6M and Franzen @ 3.5M (I came up with 2 offers - going either 6 or 7 years in length which I think he’d be okay with).

In order to keep both, Hudler, Sammy, Kopecky, McCarty, Chelios, Lilja, and Conks have to go.  They’re replaced by Helm, Leino, Ericsson, and Howard.

Unfortunately, I’m still over the cap and I’m short 1 forward.  Unless Homer retires.

If he does, I’d be able to keep Kopecky and Sammy at their current salaries and fill out the roster.

If we choose 1 or the other (Hoss or Mule), Hudler would stay and we’d either keep Kopecky (with Hoss) or Sammy (with Franzen).  This assumes Homer doesn’t retire. 

I’d be happy to send my excel sheet to anyone who’s interested and who’s completely lost by my attempt to explain my numbers.

Chief - keep in mind that Lebda’s cap hit is $650K, not $850K.  Lilja’s $1.25M is a bargain for what he provides but in order to keep the band together, pieces such as a 5th or 6th defenceman need to be cut.  Meech’s cap hit is $483K for another year and he can play forward making him a necessity to keep.

Helm is cheap at $599K while Homekeys comes in at $850K.  Erricsson is $900K but he has to clear waivers next year and he’s obviously ready.  Kindl I’d keep down in the AHL for 1 more year to take advantage of Lebda’s cheap contract (which is less than what Kindl would make up here).  Kindl doesn’t have to clear waivers.

Maltby and Homer both signed their contracts before they were 35 years old meaning there’s no cap hit if they retire or (in Maltby’s case) get sent down to the minors.  Draper’s contract is stuck on the cap for another 2 years after this because he was 36 when the deal kicked in.  That’s 1 year after Helm’s up for a new contract.  Shitty timing.

Lidstrom is up after next season and will probably take a pay cut to keep everybody together.  Would Happy be interested in accepting his qualifying offer for 1 year and getting an extension afterwards?  If not, a 1st rounder and a 3rd rounder as compensation for him on an offer sheet (assuming it’s higher than $2.6M) would be a nice trade off even though I’d rather keep him.  He’s the player he is because of the the way we developed him.  It would be a shame to see him apply that trade elsewhere.

Anyway,

Hoss is a keeper and if he’s willing to take $6M to stay, we’d be dumb to say no.  I have no idea how this will all shake down, but it will be impossible to keep everybody together.

Posted by DetCapC19 from Vancouver, BC on 02/17/09 at 03:01 PM ET

I love the Mule for all he did in the playoffs last year, but man he has a bad case of the injury bug. 

So did Kronwall - until last year.  Especially in the playoffs.

*sigh*

I just like everybody.

How long is Lilja’s contract for?  If it’s just another year, maybe Kindl could stay in Grand Rapids for one more year, if he isn’t quite ready yet.  Then try him the year after that.

Two rookie goalies - it would definitely be different, but ask Montreal how two youngsters in goal is working out.  It wouldn’t be boring, that’s for sure. 

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 02/17/09 at 03:03 PM ET

3 best possible line combos for your dangler-shooter-grinder model that the Flying Circus presents:

Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom
Hossa-Filppula-Franzen
Hudler-Leino-Cleary

Fourth line for energy:

Helm-Draper-Abdelkader.

Meech is an odd man out on the D unless we dump Lebda, really, I’d take either one, the cheaper the better.

Goalie?  I think it’s flight or falter time for Howard, I’m sure he’s not interested in being in any AHL record books for career wins.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 02/17/09 at 03:05 PM ET

It’ll be a frigging stress orgy

I don’t think I’ve ever heard a better description of Wings fandom than that.

Posted by Bella from Clark St. on 02/17/09 at 03:09 PM ET

Chief - keep in mind that Lebda’s cap hit is $650K, not $850K.  Lilja’s $1.25M is a bargain for what he provides but in order to keep the band together, pieces such as a 5th or 6th defenceman need to be cut.  Meech’s cap hit is $483K for another year and he can play forward making him a necessity to keep.

Helm is cheap at $599K while Homekeys comes in at $850K.  Erricsson is $900K but he has to clear waivers next year and he’s obviously ready.  Kindl I’d keep down in the AHL for 1 more year to take advantage of Lebda’s cheap contract (which is less than what Kindl would make up here).  Kindl doesn’t have to clear waivers.

I see what you’re saying and think you are correct, the numbers would work. But we just fundamentally disagree on a few things. Scary as it is, Lilja has clearly been the second-best defender (strictly defensively) this year, after Lidstrom. Yes, it’s an indictment on how poorly Kronwall started, but it’s also an indicator of how well Lilja has taken the “Chelios” role, especially on the PK. Since you still have a year for Lilja’s contract on the cheap, you have to keep him unless someone makes you a real silly trade, like a first or second round pick. Since Lils has to stay, Meech has to go. I do NOT think he’s a necessity. I think he’s been disappointing this season, especially when he’s played D. He has not shown the same flashes of offensive poise or defensive smarts this year that he showed during the injury crisis in February ‘08. Lebda, on the other hand, has been surprisingly good in his own zone since he came back from his benching. He’s taken his +/- rating, since the benching, from -9 to +8. And offensively, he doesn’t have a lot of numbers, but his speed and puckhandling through the neutral zone has proven more consistent and stable than Meech’s. Lastly, Lebda has lots of playoff experience and generally speaking is just a known quantity, whereas there’s still a jury out on Meech. The Wings are pretty well set for top 4 defensemen for the coming years. They know how well Lebda fits in as that 6/7 guy that plays most games, sits a few out, and logs 12-15 minutes per night. He’s a role player that fills that role very successfully, and while it seems like those guys are a dime a dozen, Meech hasn’t shown the ability to do that job better than Lebda, otherwise he would’ve been all season long.

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/17/09 at 03:12 PM ET

Thank all of you number-loving people for the breakdowns.

Nathan, you’ve convinced me.  I’m on board with everything you’re saying, except I agree with DetCapC19 that they can’t afford to let Meech go with a cap hit of less than $.5 mill.

Question for everyone, now that we’ve looked more closely at the numbers: what’s up with Holland implying that he’s trying to keep Hossa and Franzen?

Another question, for anyone who follows the Griffins: what’s up with Kindl this season?  He’s -15?

Posted by Sadie from Ann Arbor, MI on 02/17/09 at 03:15 PM ET

Anyway, in my analysis I have Hossa @ 6M and Franzen @ 3.5M (I came up with 2 offers - going either 6 or 7 years in length which I think he’d be okay with).

pipe dream.  Hossa is not going to sign for 6 million.  If he is signed, it will make him either the highest paid wing or tied for the highest paid wing.

Posted by Mr Hoss on 02/17/09 at 03:18 PM ET

So we let Franzen go, and Holmstrom probably hangs ‘em up after next year.  Everyone is ok with not having a net front guy on the PP for the first time in 20 years? Cicarelli started this and our PP has been lethal ever since.  I know most will say Buckets is there for it but I haven’t seen him be as consistent at the job as Dino, Homer and Mule have been.

Posted by scsgoal31 from Huntington Woods, MI on 02/17/09 at 03:22 PM ET

In re: Lebda v. Meech:  I’ve also been disappointed with what I’ve seen of Meech on defense this season, but I remember those flashes of brilliance, and I think it’s worth taking the chance that when he plays defense regularly and with a good defensive partner, he’ll develop into more than what Lebda will.  Maybe it’s a gamble, but with other solid defensemen on the roster and in the system, I think it’s worth taking.

Posted by Sadie from Ann Arbor, MI on 02/17/09 at 03:39 PM ET

This is some kind of dismal and warped salary sudoku!

Lebda has been very solid since his benching, and he is a known quantity.  I wonder if Meech might not have to move to get the opportunity Quincey got with Los Angeles - there is just not a lot of space.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 02/17/09 at 03:41 PM ET

Mr. Hoss, please go away.

Posted by moore00 from the Ohio State University on 02/17/09 at 03:43 PM ET

Sadie, my first choice would be to trade Lebda and keep Meech simply because I think you have a tiny tiny chance to get a late late pick for Lebda, whereas Meech is almost guaranteed to fall into the same boat Quincey did.

If no trade is available, I’d rather stick with the Red Wing way and keep the guy that’s proven his worth, abilities, and has valuable playoff experience (and success).

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/17/09 at 03:57 PM ET

nIce post Iwo,

err, I mean: Nice update.
If you recall, I have been a Lilja fan from the getgo.

And my new project:
Conklin should be signed for next year, pronto.

Hoss would be nice, but if he is playing hardball...lets take a look at what others could do with his ice time.  When he is not being noticed, he is still floating.

Fragile Franzen shouldn’t even be considered until summertime.
Let’s see what/if he can contribute in the playoffs,
and not overlook the fact that he may be brain damaged.

There is going to be a market for experienced D on March 4.
Kronner, Lebs, and Stuart....put em’ all on the auction block.

Posted by HockeyTownTodd from upset when blogs don’t live up to my expectations on 02/17/09 at 04:09 PM ET

Lebda has been very solid since his benching, and he is a known quantity.  I wonder if Meech might not have to move to get the opportunity Quincey got with Los Angeles - there is just not a lot of space.

Yeah, this is the core of what I’m saying in favor of Lebda. Meech might have a higher ceiling of potential, but given that Rafalski, Stuart, and Kronwall are here for a while, and both Ericsson and Kindl project as top four defensemen, the Wings, oddly enough, need a guy that they KNOW can be effective in the 5/6 or even 7th defenseman role. Lebda has proven his usefulness in this spot to the nth degree—Meech has not.

I think you are right. Meech needs to go somewhere, like Quincey, that has a pressing need for his style of play. A guy that can man the second PP unit, make a good first pass, and compliment a #1 type of guy. Who thinks Meech would look great back along side Phaneuf in Calgary? I sure do.

That role is just not available in Detroit now, and won’t be available for a number of years thanks to the quality of talent that is in the pipeline for the defensive position, and the good contracts that Holland has veteran talent locked up in. Even when Lidstrom goes, where does Meech fit? If the Wings are to be successful post-Lidstrom, it pretty much requires Kronwall, Ericsson, and Kindl to live up to their potential. With Rafalski likely replacing Nick as the veteran on the backline, and Kronwall, Ericsson, and Kindl all essentially having to live up to top four status for the Wings to have life after Lidstrom, and with Stuart being a solid physical presence in the five spot, where does Meech fit? In the same 6/7 role he’s in right now, and has been totally underwhelming in?

Say what you will about Lebda, but he has been effective since the Wings brought him to the big club playing as the 6th/7th defenseman. He’s learned how to be effective in that role, with less than 82 games, and less than 15 minutes per night. Meech looks like he needs ice time, especially as a young player trying to find his game. And it’s pretty unclear if the Wings will ever be able to give him ice time, even in the post-Lidstrom hockey world.

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/17/09 at 04:10 PM ET

I think Meech would look a lot better in the East.  I’m already having visions of Quincey ruining a future playoff run with the Kings.

Posted by HockeyJoe from Upstate New York on 02/17/09 at 04:16 PM ET

That there is one fine paragraph.  Welcome back Chief.

Posted by Rumbear from Sandy Eggo on 02/17/09 at 04:18 PM ET

Hey 19, I love all you guys, and enjoy (generally) reading your opinions on everything Red Wings. I respect most of them.

I know that I tend to have selective memory issues myself, but let us all recall that we are talking about Marian “friggin” Hossa.  You know, he used to play for the Pens last year, you might remember that he almost single-handedly forced a Gamed 7 in the SCF, and was a veritible wrecking crew in the playoffs (20 g/p, 12 g, 14 a, 26 pts, +8). 

Look at the numbers he has this season (not missed a game):  57 g/p 33 g, 27a, 60 pts, +18); better than a point/game.

Mule:  46 g/p 22 g, 12 a, 34 pts, +11.  Mules playoff numbers:  16 g/p 13 g, 5 a, 18 pts, + 13

Ink, paper, sign the Hoss please!!

Posted by Jeff OKWingnut from Hockey Netherworld on 02/17/09 at 04:19 PM ET

I think you’re all looking at something a bit wrong on the back end. Holland is thinking:

2011-2012.
Ericsson-Kronwall
Kindl/Meech-Lilja
Kindl/Meech-Stu*.

Assuming no-trade clause.

I am certain Nick can do it for another 3 years if he wants to and I admit that “A Life without Lidstrom” is such a terrifying prospect that it makes me want to go into the Manny position in front of my desk.  Worry not, ye fellow occupants of the Hasek.  Tick Tock is made of sterner stuff than we!

Holland won’t count on Lidstrom returning until Nick tells him, “Hey, Ken.  What about six?” unless he knows things we don’t (and I know everything).

On the same vein, the reason we’re watching the Wings of Today is because they didn’t break the bank in 2001 with trades (they just let veterans come in via free agency to solve our woes).  My wife and I had this discussion last night, “You often refer to players as ‘the next so and so’- the wings do that a lot.” Smart woman.  Keeper.

Your top six forwards in 2011 are:

Z, Pav, Hudler, Flip, Cleary, and either Hossa or Franzen depending on who stays.

If both, bump Cleary down to the third line with Leino and Sammy.  If only one stays, Kopecky might have a chance to remain.

Fourth line- Abbadabba, Helm, Kopecky (or someone new).

Retired:  Holmstrom, Chelios, Maltby, Draper, Rafalski, Lidstrom (sob).

Posted by shanetx on 02/17/09 at 04:29 PM ET

Some good news, as an aside, the ever vigilant KHAN! says that Mule is in tomorrow night when the Wings host Bubba.

Here’s the lines they used in practice:

Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Cleary
Franzen-Filppula-Hossa
Hudler-Helm-Samuelsson
Kopecky-Draper-Maltby (Leino)

Darren McCarty also practiced but said he’s not sure if he’ll be ready to play in Grand Rapids this weekend.

On defense:
Lidstrom-Kronwall
Lilja-Rafalski
Meech-Chelios
Stuart

Conklin (starting)
Osgood

More -

“(Franzen) shot the puck a ton yesterday (in practice); we were worried about the vibration in his hand and he seems to be fine,’’ Babcock said. “Ideally, if everything is good tomorrow at the skate he’ll be going.’’

Defenseman Brad Stuart (ribs) also practiced and might return in less than the projected two weeks. Brett Lebda was on the ice briefly at the start of practice and remains day-to-day with back spasms.

Also worth noting that Babcock said Darren Helm definitely will be with the team in the playoffs, which doesn’t come as a surprise considering the speed and energy he brings and how well he performed in the postseason last year.

Posted by Jeff OKWingnut from Hockey Netherworld on 02/17/09 at 04:29 PM ET

nIce post Iwo,

err, I mean: Nice update.
If you recall, I have been a Lilja fan from the getgo.

And my new project:
Conklin should be signed for next year, pronto.

Hoss would be nice, but if he is playing hardball...lets take a look at what others could do with his ice time.  When he is not being noticed, he is still floating.

Fragile Franzen shouldn’t even be considered until summertime.
Let’s see what/if he can contribute in the playoffs,
and not overlook the fact that he may be brain damaged.

There is going to be a market for experienced D on March 4.
Kronner, Lebs, and Stuart....put em’ all on the auction block.

Todd, I agree with (almost) your entire post. You have certainly proven us all wrong. I was as big of a Lilja doubter. I thought he was just going to be the latest failure to come from Holland’s infatuation with “big” defenseman. Lilja has made some massive mistakes in the last three years, but given his overall sound play last season and playoffs, and his beyond solid play this year, he has earned our respect big time.

I agree that if the Wings go into next season with Osgood and Howard, things will be tenuous from the get go. We talk a lot about how bad the goaltending has been this season, but when you look at Conklin’s performance thus far, I think it is fair to say that he’s been a very under-noticed and under-appreciated steadying factor that’s kept the Cup hangover from getting out of hand. He’s had a few bad games, but overall he’s looked like the Osgood we expected—not great stats, but solid numbers, very few weak goals surrendered, and a very good knack for holding rebounds, and keeping puck possession on his team’s side as a result.

I partially agree about Hossa. When he’s not scoring, he’s still solid defensively, but not NOTICEABLE like Datsyuk or Z. And with the way this team is built, there’s just not a lot of room for players like that, especially at over $6 million per year. But those periods where he’s not scoring are pretty few and far between, and I think his passion and intensity is a big reason the Wings aren’t sitting in 3rd, 4th, or 5th place in the West. He’s proven he’s better than Franzen, period, even if Franzen never ever got hurt. He’s just a dominant talent that can inflict his will on almost any game.

Franzen is fragile, but has to be kept for the playoffs. His knack for big goals and his net presence in the all too possible absence of Holmstrom is too valuable come playoff time. St. James needs to get her head on straight.

As for putting those D on the block… that’s where I disagree. Kronwall has underachieved, but has come around the last two weeks. And as I said in a post above, the Wings are kind of tied to Kronwall (and Kindl and Ericsson) going forward. If he doesn’t pan out in the long run and have a number of solid seasons, the Wings can’t be successful post-Lidstrom, at least not without signing a top D-man in FA and restructuring the makeup of the team as a result.

Stuart wasn’t as good as he needed to be before he got hurt, but I’ll take him over the alternative. Even if you like Ericsson for the playoffs, he replaces Chelios, Lebda, or Meech before he replaces Stuart. It’s just a hunch, but I think that Stuart will get healthy, come in for the stretch going into the playoffs, and will have the same burst of energy and physical presence he had last season after they got him. Again… just a hunch, I can’t claim it’s anything better.

And Lebda? Again… why trade a guy that you can know and trust in a certain role? If he fetches something above his true market value (maybe anything higher than a 4th or 3rd rounder), make the deal for sure, and get Ericsson on the team for the playoffs. Otherwise, he’s got too much proven playoff experience and success. He’s not a gamebreaker, but last year he broke even in the playoffs, and if you can say that your 6/7th defenseman is a guy that neutralizes the competition he plays against, you’re doing well. At this point, it might be worth putting Ericsson in for the playoffs anyways, for his size and skill, but it’s nice to have a veteran like Lebda, that knows how to step in as the 6th D-man and be immediately effective.

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/17/09 at 04:29 PM ET

Retired:  Holmstrom, Chelios, Maltby, Draper, Rafalski, Lidstrom (sob).

I would be surprised if Rafalski isn’t on the team in ‘11-’12, given that he has a contract, and plays the type of game the Wings love, and the type of finesse game that will likely allow him to be healthy and moderately productive to that point. Even if he plays as a complimentary defender to the new young guys like Ericsson, he’ll still have tremendous value for his vision, passing, and experience.

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/17/09 at 04:33 PM ET

Kronner, Lebs, and Stuart....put em’ all on the auction block.

Stuart has a no-trade clause, doesn’t he? And there is no way in holy hell that Kenny will trade Kronner. As for Lebda ... I think he’s gone next year regardless, unless they go with 8 D again.

I can’t decide whether my cat should be sacrificed for the sake of keeping Hossa and Oompa, or if I need to wait for the playoffs to offer him to the gods. Or maybe I should just get more cats.

Posted by Bella from Clark St. on 02/17/09 at 04:36 PM ET

I would be surprised if Rafalski isn’t on the team in ‘11-’12, given that he has a contract, and plays the type of game the Wings love, and the type of finesse game that will likely allow him to be healthy and moderately productive to that point. Even if he plays as a complimentary defender to the new young guys like Ericsson, he’ll still have tremendous value for his vision, passing, and experience.

Rafalski is 35.  Will be 37 when the 2011 season starts.  He has 3 cups, and a chance at another this year.  He’s also playing in the shadow of an all-time great and doesn’t have to be the rock he’d need to be without Lidstrom.  He’s also tiny.  Small guys don’t last as long.

I would love to see him around in 2011 but I don’t really see it happening.  Hopefully I will be wrong.

Posted by shanetx on 02/17/09 at 04:40 PM ET

I don’t have to be an engineer to get ulcers looking at these numbers, but it doesn’t f***ing help.

What if we ordered some babes to blow Franzen and Hoss into staying....does that ever work?  I’ll say right now though that I like our future, whatever it is.  We’ve never had anything to worry about with how easily we can cultivate talent (see:  Happy, Wally, Pav, Hank, Mule, Helm, Abadabadoo).  So don’t stress as much as you are, I’m almost as tired of worrying about Hoss+Franzen=Cap Trouble as I am about Osgood+Puck=Goal.

I’m a worrier, but I’m also an Osgoodian loyalist.  It’s my conversation starter for when I meet Kristen Bell when I head to Detroit next month....

Posted by Sullyosis from A hateful lair in Post Apocalyptic US (or Arizona) on 02/17/09 at 04:50 PM ET

Mr. Hoss, please go away.

ok.

Posted by Mr. Hoss on 02/17/09 at 04:53 PM ET

I think you are right. Meech needs to go somewhere, like Quincey, that has a pressing need for his style of play. A guy that can man the second PP unit, make a good first pass, and compliment a #1 type of guy. Who thinks Meech would look great back along side Phaneuf in Calgary? I sure do.

It’s being a farm team to the rest of the league, but with a twist - instead of scooping up talent from small-budget teams when they can’t afford them (like teams like the Yankees with respect to teams like the Twins - or anyone, really), other teams are just going to wait until someone goes on the waiver wire because Detroit runs out of room for them.

I think Meech would look a lot better in the East.  I’m already having visions of Quincey ruining a future playoff run with the Kings.

I’d rather not see him come back to haunt Detroit, too - but unfortunately that may not be in the cards.  I has a sad just thinking about it.  :(

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 02/17/09 at 05:12 PM ET

Nathan this is pro sports, and I think you are too attached to Kronner, Lebs, and Stuart.
2/3 of the league has no-trade clauses, but faced with being picked up on waivers, most
will waive so they don’t wind up in a no-hockey zone.  Hanging onto these guys is the reason
we lost Quincey.  What is the point in developing players if you are going to give them away?

Posted by HockeyTownTodd from upset when blogs don’t live up to my expectations on 02/17/09 at 05:19 PM ET

Yep.  A two-headed all rookie tandem of fetal-position-inducing, thumb-sucking, start drinking at 0900 and don’t stop until the neighbors call the vet because your wails of pain sound like baby lambs crying for milk from a mommy who’s too busy knitting her own wool because watching a team with two rookie goalies has driven her certifiably insane (you can rack that bitch).

Rack it?  Hell, I could barely follow it.  But yeah I get what you’re sayin’.

Posted by calquake on 02/17/09 at 05:24 PM ET

Some quick thoughts:

- no chance of two rookie goalies ever happening on the Wings.  Seriously, think about the way the Wings have handled all their other young players.
- the real cap crunch may be coming in two seasons, not just the next cap number.
- in a falling cap environment, teams near the cap with a lot of long-term commitments will be in big trouble.  That is a pretty good description of the Wings salary situation right now, and will be an even better description if they sign Hossa.
- Lidstrom will take a pay cut after next season, but he won’t play for $2m or anything ridiculous like that.
- you don’t get much cap space from moving small salaries like Lebda’s $650K, Maltby’s $883K, or even Samuelsson’s $1.2m, because you still need to fill the roster spot with at least a league-minimum salary of roughly $500K.  Worse, there’s a huge difference between a player worth $1m and a player worth $500K, so you wind up with a significant downgrade for very little savings.

If it were up to me, I’d try to move Cleary and/or Stuart.  Both are nearing 30 and have been around a while, which means they aren’t going to improve much.  Both have reasonable salaries, relative to comparable players on other teams.  And both are being significantly overpaid, relative to their role on the Red Wings.  It also opens up some room for guys like Helm, Leino, Meech, and Ericsson.  And best of all, if you figure Leino’s $875K replace’s Cleary’s $2.8m, that’s almost $2m in salary room that you can give to Hossa, Franzen, or Hudler.  If Ericsson’s $495K replaces Stuart’s $3.75m, you’ve got whopping $3.2m.

Hossa’s better than Franzen, but unless Holland moves Cleary or Stuart, I’d rather not see Hossa signed.

Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 02/17/09 at 05:32 PM ET

I think we should keep Kopecky around as long as Hossa is around.  Don’t discount the fact that they’re good friends off the ice, as Kopecky played with Marian’s brother back in the homeland.  He’s been playing better as the season has progressed and I’d be willing to be a large part of that has been Hossa’s influence. 

If he keeps it up, I have confidence he’ll turn into one of those all-important players who are performing way above their salary for the next 2-3 years.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 02/17/09 at 05:45 PM ET

I won’t even touch this. Way too complicated, and I don’t need any other stress on my mind.

I’ll just say...Draper, Maltby, Chelios, and McCarty need to go. I hate saying that, but they just gotta. We could bring in someone like Ericsson in place of Chelios. If we keep Franzen and Hossa we’d have something like

Datsyuk, Hossa, Holmstrom
Zetterberg, Franzen, Cleary
Filppula Kopecky Hudler
Abdelkader Helm Leino

Those aren’t lines, just a list. I guess we’d have to lose Sammy. Not a big deal, but I feel like he’s sort of become ingrained in this team since the lockout, alongside guys like Franzen, Hudler and Filppula.

Wow, I said I didn’t want to talk about it but I did. I’m outta here.

Posted by Tyler from Arizona on 02/17/09 at 06:06 PM ET

And best of all, if you figure Leino’s $875K replace’s Cleary’s $2.8m, that’s almost $2m in salary room that you can give to Hossa, Franzen, or Hudler.  If Ericsson’s $495K replaces Stuart’s $3.75m, you’ve got whopping $3.2m.

Ryan from Toronto - where are you getting those numbers from?

Leino’s contract is up after this season so he’ll be making more than the $875K.

Ericsson is signed for 3 years at $900K.

Also, I believe both Stuart and Cleary have no-trade clauses early in their contracts in exchange for taking less money.

I also don’t agree that they’re significantly overpaid relative to their roles on this team.  Stuart’s a Top 4 defenceman on this team.  $3.75M is a pretty good price for a Top 4 on any team.  Cleary may seem like he’s overpaid now since he’s playing 3rd line, but his flexibility as well as the fact that he’ll play Top 6 when guys are injured (or leave) makes him a pretty good bargain.  I think come playoff time, Cleary’s worth will far exceed his contract.

Posted by DetCapC19 from Vancouver, BC on 02/17/09 at 06:14 PM ET

this might be the batch of longest comments ever on a post around here. so i’ll just briefly drop in my opinion and the one thing i noticed that nobody else has mentioned.

- leino reminds me of mule.

- i’ve been too emotional in my thinking mule is the priority over hossa. we developed him and he was our MVP last year from march through first two rounds of the playoffs, but injury concerns shouldn’t be taken lightly. normally i would ignore them, but considering hossa’s durability as compared to mule...yeah, kinda speaks for itself. hossa is definitely a talent the likes of which we haven’t seen around here. (we’ve had equal amounts of talent, just not like him.) sooo...see my point above. leino reminds me of mule.

(and the goaltending next year? if having two rookies is what it takes to keep hossa + happy, then i’d gladly book a sleeper for the hasek.)

Posted by laerm from rochester, ny on 02/17/09 at 06:46 PM ET

Mr Hossa gave the redwings a discount for 1 year.  To believe that he is going to offer the same discount over multiple years is only really building your hopes up for a severe let down in the offseason.

Franzen will be signed prior to july, but dont expect hossa to be a wing next year.

As for Hossa not being as good at Z or dangle, dangle.... dead wrong.  Hossa is the reason the wings are as good as they are this year

Hey sidney, does Mario know that your using his computer?
Shouldn’t you be working on excuses for why you did’t make the playoffs?

It warms my heart to see that you have become a coach killer just like your lanlord was early in his career.

Posted by dbcooper from parts unknown on 02/17/09 at 06:55 PM ET

Mr Hossa gave the redwings a discount for 1 year.  To believe that he is going to offer the same discount over multiple years is only really building your hopes up for a severe let down in the offseason.

February 12, Windsor Star : If there was any doubt about Marian Hossa buying into the Detroit Red Wings’ philosophy regarding their salary structure, the Slovak star removed it Wednesday. Hossa stated he thought Wings general manager Ken Holland would be able to keep both himself and Johan Franzen.
“They have some plan to keep both players, we’ll see how they’re going to manage that,” said Hossa when asked if he was willing to take a hometown discount as Henrik Zetterberg did on his new contract. “Everybody knows if you want to stay here, you have to take less, so yes (I’ll take less).”

So, I think he is willing to take less…

Posted by DetCapC19 from Vancouver, BC on 02/17/09 at 07:31 PM ET

No way Kindl’s up next season. There’s a reason his name never comes up when potential call-ups are discussed. The kid is greener than the Mountain (Mtn?) Dew can in front of me and is tied for a team-worst minus-15. If by some miracle he matures enough between now and training camp to Filppula his way on to the team, he’ll only play on the second unit when the team has 5 defensemen on the IR.

As for Jimmy, he’s surprised me and actually turned a sucky season into a strong one, but he’s not ready to lead an NHL team anywhere but 10th place. He’s a backup at this point in his career. Larsson has been a revelation in the AHL, but handing him the reigns regardless of his potential training camp performance would be an automatic end to the Wings’ playoff streak.

Ericsson and Helm in particular have shown themselves to be capable NHL players, but ushering in their era too soon will be painful for those of us used to the Wings actually winning games.

Of all the hypotheticl scenarios listed here, I’m most interested in the one that includes a Holmstrom retirement (DetCap19). To me, that seems like a real possibility and one that would free up $2.5 million, which Holland could make a lot out of. I don’t want Holmstrom to retire, but who’d blame the guy?

Posted by Matt Saler from Grand Rapids, MI on 02/17/09 at 07:42 PM ET