Canucks & Beyond
Next entry: The Private Pain of Brian Burke & Kevin Lowe
Previous entry: Jason Krog to the Canucks
The Graphical Pavol
by Alanah McGinley on 07/14/08 at 12:44 PM ET
Comments (10)
Statistics aren’t everyone’s cup of tea (least of all mine; in university, I dropped out of ‘Introductory Statistics’ three times before finally finishing and passing the course) but they’re obviously a useful tool when it comes to breaking down a player—especially a player who’s new to the team and somewhat of an unknown quantity.
Below are four charts I’ve put together to look at Pavol Demitra (and one on Mats Sundin) from a variety of perspectives:
- Chart 1 -- Demitra vs Naslund
- Chart 2 -- Demitra’s 2007-08 Line Combos and Points
- Chart 3 -- Demitra’s Situational Ice Time for 2007-08
- Chart 4 -- Sundin’s 2007-08 Line Combos and Points
Chart 1—Demitra vs Naslund
Since it’s fair to say that Pavol Demitra was signed effectively as a replacement for Markus Naslund (both wingers; both point-getters; roughly the same age; apparently the best of friends… geezus, are they the same guy?) this chart contrasts their 2007-08 performances side-by-side.
First impressions: It’s evident that Demitra is a more effective point-producer based on his ice time percentages, than is Naslund; but Naslund plays many more games than Demitra does, who has missed an average of 15.75 games per year over the last four seasons (Naslund has missed three games in total over the same time frame).
And Demitra’s luck isn’t likely to improve much, either. He’s only played two 82-game seasons in his entire career.
Conclusion: Demitra is the more breakable player, but also a more effective component—points and otherwise—when his body manages to stay glued together.
Chart 2—Demitra’s Line
How badly is Pavol Demitra going to miss Marian Gaborik? See the chart below, documenting his line combinations and points for the 2007-08 season. It’s almost scary till you consider that there are probably Minnesota Wild fans out there concerned about the reverse problem: how much is Gaborik going to miss Demitra? (Either way, I’ll take Demitra over Gaborik any day of the week.)
Setting aside the still-outstanding Mats Sundin question for the moment, it has been speculated that Demitra would line up well with Kyle Wellwood and Taylor Pyatt—though I’m personally more interested in seeing what he can do with Daniel and Henrik Sedin.
But the nice thing about Demitra is that, no matter who he ends up playing with, he’s likely to be an asset to any line.
Chart 3—Demitra’s Situational Ice Time
This chart doesn’t require any explanation, but it’s an easy graphical reference to see how Jacques Lemaire used Demitra this past season.
Chart 4—Sundin’s Line
I’ve just included this chart for the hell of it, since Vancouver is betting the farm on his acquisition.
What would be the most effective lineup combination for Sundin in Vancouver? You’ll have to tell me—I have no good ideas about this. Though someone who looks like Nikolai Antropov wouldn’t hurt…
Note: I generated all of these charts using the excellent stats database at Frozen Pool.com
Filed in: vancouver canucks | Canucks and Beyond | Permalink
Tags: hockey+stats, markus+naslund, mats+sundin, pavol+demitra,
Comments
bitterguy -- I’m a big fan of Naslund, but I never found him to be comfortable in the captain’s role. But you’re right in that he never made excuses, I just think it was pressure he’ll do better playing without in the future.
carlos -- I know, I know… madness indeed. 
Posted by Alanah McGinley from British Columbia on 07/14/08 at 03:12 PM ET
I think that Naslund’s numbers have been dropping long before he was subjected to playing a more defensive style of hockey. Demitra is made of glass but I think if he stays healthy he’ll be a good impact player who can put up consistent numbers game after game.
As for the Nik Antropov/Sundin combo - this was one of two years where Antropov managed to stay healthy (he’s another player who is made of glass). Sundin is a machine who can pretty much play with anyone. Damn I wish “we” could get him. Although I really don’t see it happening.
Posted by TriniD from VanC on 07/14/08 at 03:37 PM ET
I really like the Demitra signing but ONLY if we add a couple of players to compliment his style of play.
In my opinion, we squandered 3 years of high salaries to Naslund and Morrison because we NEVER went out and landed a bona fide proven hockey player to go alongside these two since Todd Bertuzzi. It was so obvious from where I was looking I can’t understand why you would pay someone 6 million dollars to pass and score but give you an AHL calibre player to do the scoring ????
I have total faith that Gillis noticed this and will NOT let that happen again, but we’ll soon see !!
Posted by Deke from North Vancouyver BC on 07/14/08 at 04:48 PM ET
TriniD -- Not that long before… I think his downfall timed pretty much after the Bertuzzi incident, losing his infamous linemate the following year. But I agree with you about Demitra; he’s a solid replacement who can - when healthy - produce more bang-for-the-buck.
Oddly enough, I think we will get Sundin. My published reasons are idiotic I’ll admit, but have a strange feeling it’s going to happen.
We’ll have to see. I’m hopeful.
Deke -- I agree with everything you say. Not signing a mid-to-top tier scoring forward early last season was Nonis’s obvious mistake from the start… and it got more obvious with every passing game.
Gillis is clearly trying to fix that oversight, but for me the question mark is what kind of use Alain Vigneault will make of those sort of players. Creative players require an element of risk, and AV has never been inclined to let his team play risky hockey. (Despite the $7 million man in the net behind them… and I’ll never understand that.)
Posted by Alanah McGinley from British Columbia on 07/14/08 at 04:59 PM ET
I’ll take Demitra over Gaborik any day of the week.
Uhh....what?
Posted by NHLJeff from Boston, MA on 07/14/08 at 07:28 PM ET
I just want to say my brain hurt after reading this post. I may have a fairly weak brain, but I’m definitely not used to reading posts of this magnitude on here 
but - after the painkillers kicked in - I found it slightly disconcerning that Gillis/Nonis would go after a guy putting up the same points as a player they let walk.
This may be an ignorant comment, but why not keep Nasland then?
Posted by LOUiE from cowtown on 07/14/08 at 09:43 PM ET
NHL Jeff -- it’s just a quirk of mine. Gaborik annoys me.
LOUiE -- Sorry to traumatize you with all the stats; I don’t do it often!
Your comment about Naslund isn’t ignorant, it’s a fair question after looking at their side-by-side comparison. I’d say it probably comes down to the team’s decision to move forward with Vigneault. Knowing that was Vancouver’s direction, there really was no chance Naslund could resurrect his best numbers in the Canucks system.
That’s my guess anyway.
Posted by Alanah McGinley from British Columbia on 07/15/08 at 11:08 AM ET
I’d say it probably comes down to the team’s decision to move forward with Vigneault.
i agree.. i just don’t think I’m ready to move forward with Vigneault!
I think it was a good move. I liked having Nazzy around, great guy, great player, but like you said not the most comfortable leader. And if Viggy/Nonis were to demote Nazzy you could assume he’d have a fairly crap season next year. Instead, let him go with his head still high and bring in a player of equal or greater value (sounds like a McD’s coupon) but without the bruised ego.
Posted by LOUiE from Cowtown on 07/15/08 at 02:13 PM ET
Add a Comment
Please limit embedded image or media size to 575 pixels wide.
Add your own avatar by joining Kukla's Korner, or logging in and uploading one in your member control panel.
Captchas bug you? Join KK or log in and you won't have to bother.
Most Recent Blog Posts
Wellwood Returning to Vancouver
In Defense of Dany Heatley (sort of)
Sedin’s Agent Not Optimistic About a Vancouver Deal, but is Anyone?
Mike Keenan Joins the Canucks?
GM Place Keeps its Name; Disaster Averted
What’s Trevor Linden Been Up To?
About Canucks & Beyond
Alanah McGinley has been blogging hockey since 2003, sharing opinions, rants and not-so-deep thoughts with anyone who will listen. In addition to writing Canucks & Beyond and helping manage Kukla’s Korner, Alanah is one of the founders and co-hosts of The Crazy Canucks Podcast, as featured at Canucks.com.
She has contributed pieces to FoxSports.com and the New York Times Slapshot blog, as well as other stray destinations in cyberspace.
Email:
Alanah’s Twitter: Not really hockey-ish. [LINK]
Other Canucks Blogs
i gotta think that demitra is a net loss from naslund. he scores slightly more points per game, and plays on the penalty kill but plays a lot less games and if penalty minutes are a valid indication is softer. and the biggest difference is that i just don’t see demitra getting the c this year. markus was a good captain. not great in the grand scheme of the nhl, but he played through everything, shouldered the load and never made excuses. i’ll admit i haven’t followed demitra’s career but i don’t remember him ever being the primary focus of his teams.
Posted by bitterguy on 07/14/08 at 01:55 PM ET