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Western Conference Finals Preview:  Wings vs. Stars
Posted: 06 May 2008 03:56 PM   [ Ignore ]  [ # 11 ]  
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Scott Wraight offers his analysis of the Wings/Stars matchup; from Sports Illustrated :

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (5) Dallas Stars
Regular-season series: Wings won 3-1

1/2: Wings 4, Stars 1

1/5: Wings 3, Stars 0

2/17: Stars 1, Wings 0

3/13: Wings 5, Stars 3

The Skinny:
The Stars and Red Wings, ready to renew playoff hostilities for the first time since 1998, took different paths to this final. Dallas, the “underdog” each time, upended the defending champion Ducks in the opening round, then showed its teeth in knocking off one of the more popular Cup picks—San Jose—in six games. Two mentally and physically draining series. But at least the Stars’ first-round hiccup is a thing of the past.

Detroit, meanwhile, had to fight a little harder than expected against the Predators. But in the second round, the top-seeded Wings motored past the injury-riddled Avs in four games. The big question heading into this showdown is which team’s style will win out: Dallas’ chip-and-chase or Detroit’s puck possession.

In their series against the Sharks, the Stars had a tough time sustaining offensive attacks. Against Colorado, the Wings were able to dictate the action nearly the entire series. One thing will be for certain with a ticket to the Stanley Cup Final on the line: top-shelf goaltending will be on display. Chris Osgood has yet to lose a game in these playoffs, going 6-0 since taking over for Dom Hasek. All Marty Turco has done is pocket eight wins against two Pacific powers and produce a shiny 1.73 GAA and .929 save percentage.

If there’s an area where one team has an edge, it’s defense. Detroit boasts more depth and all-around skill. The Stars have regularily been trotting out three rookie backends during the playoffs. Dallas does hold an edge when it comes to physical play, but Detroit’s nucleus of veteran bruisers (Darren McCarty and Chris Chelios) won’t shy away from any big hits. The key to the series may be the front of Turco’s net, where it’ll probably fall on Mattias Norstrom to clear out Tomas Holmstrom, easily the best mucker in the league.

Spotlight is on: Marty Turco
Much was made of the veteran netminder’s inability to step up during the postseason (ah, those playoff demons). And with good reason: he hadn’t been able to get out of the first round since 2002-03. But that talk seems to have dissipated. Turco is the biggest reason the Stars are in the West final. But then we come to the issue of the Red Wings, who are Turco’s albatross. Over the past three seasons, he is 2-6 with a 2.89 GAA against them. And he really has issues at Joe Louis Arena (0-4 since 2005-06). But Turco appears more focused and driven this season, especially in the playoffs.

X-Factor for Wings: Jiri Hudler
The Stars will, and must, focus on The Mule, Johan Franzen, who has made the playoffs his personal playground. But with the added attention on Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, the Wings need tehir secondary scorers to come up big. Enter Hudler, who has nine points in the postseason despite averaging just 11:38 of ice time. He had just a single point in four games against Dallas during the regular season, but the extra eyes on Franzen may mean extra production from Hudler, who at 24 seems to be getting better with each game.

X-Factor for Stars: Jere Lehtinen
Here’s another case of an overlooked weapon. Detroit will most likely focus on playmakers Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards, Mike Modano and Sergei Zubov. But the veteran Lehtinen has a knack of potting huge goals, and he has eight points in the playoffs. He also had two points in two games against the Wings this season. But the two-way forward will need to stay aggressive throughout and not be afraid to shoot the puck more. He could also turn out to be a big player on the power play.

The Pick: Red Wings in seven

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Posted: 07 May 2008 08:56 AM   [ Ignore ]  [ # 12 ]  
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Total Posts:  456
Joined  2007-04-11

Last of the MSM analysis/prediction to make this thread (George James Malik has a fantastic gathering of the prognistications at SNAPSHOTS) , from Victor Chi at the Sporting News:

Fire

Stars: Goaltender Marty Turco put on a clinic in the six-game series victory over the San Jose Sharks. The Stars were outshot in four of the six games, including 62-55 in the quadruple-overtime finale, but Turco never allowed more than two goals in regulation. Clearly he has been dialed into the zone.

The question is whether he can reverse his fortunes against the Red Wings. Turco has a career record of 2-10-5 against Detroit. With the Red Wings having home-ice advantage, the Stars must win at least once at Joe Louis Arena—where Turco has never won.

The good news? One of Turco’s two wins was a 28-save shutout in February.

Red Wings: Winger Johan Franzen was hot down the stretch when he scored 15 goals in the final 16 regular-season games. Franzen was even hotter during the playoffs’ first two rounds, with 11 goals in 10 games. He riddled the Colorado Avalanche with nine with Detroit’s second-round sweep.

In the last regular-season game between the Red Wings and Stars in March, Franzen had a goal and an assist to help Detroit win 5-3.

Ice

Stars: Veteran Stu Barnes is day-to-day with concussion-like symptoms. He was KO’d during the San Jose series when Sharks winger Jonathan Cheechoo smashed into him. Barnes is a useful forward who can contribute timely goals. But his biggest asset in the context of what is happening now is that coach Dave Tippett isn’t afraid to play him—and that isn’t an attempt to damn him with faint praise. It is just that even in the quadruple-overtime game against San Jose, Tippett limited B.J. Crombeen to two shifts.

Red Wings: They have won six consecutive games and done it so impressively that you get the idea that they can only stop themselves. But the sweep of the Avalanche gave the Red Wings extra time to heal. Chris Chelios sat out Game 4 with a leg injury, and Valtteri Filppula injured his leg during it. Filppula is expected to play in Game 1.

Of course, the Red Wings are blessed with depth. Versatile veteran forward Kirk Maltby (hamstring) hasn’t even suited up in the playoffs.

Keys

The Stars dominated on the power play against Anaheim in the first round and continued to click against the Sharks. They converted on the power play in five of the six games against San Jose. The one game in which they failed to convert—Game 4—they lost.

The Red Wings breezed past Colorado in the second round. They trailed for just 8 minutes, 10 seconds over the course of the four-game sweep. Colorado was badly depleted with multiple big-time players on the shelf. Detroit must be prepared to face an opponent that has the wherewithal to throw its best game at the Red Wings. With the Avalanche, the spirit was willing but the bodies just weren’t functional. With the Stars, captain Brenden Morrow is scoring and hitting, and the rest of the crew has acknowledged his lead.

Lock

These teams haven’t met in the playoffs since the Red Wings won the conference finals in six games en route to their Cup repeat in 1998. Chris Osgood was the Detroit goalie then and now. Take the Wings in seven.

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Posted: 07 May 2008 09:20 AM   [ Ignore ]  [ # 13 ]  
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Total Posts:  456
Joined  2007-04-11

Just in case you want to know what Vegas thinks, here are the latest lines from Bodog Sports:

CompetitorOdds NHL CONFERENCE FINALS SERIES PRICE Best of Seven (2-2-1-1-1)
Philadelphia Flyers (Series Price)
+170

Pittsburgh Penguins (Series Price)
-210

Odds to win the 2007-08 Stanley Cup All wagers have action. Singles only. Max $600
Dallas Stars
3/1

Detroit Red Wings
3/2

Philadelphia Flyers
11/2

Pittsburgh Penguins
2/1

NHL CONFERENCE FINALS SERIES PRICE Best of Seven (2-2-1-1-1)
Dallas Stars (Series Price)
+185

Detroit Red Wings (Series Price)
-225

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