mason so far has been everything to the jackets.  it’s clear he has been the missing piece.  they have had a scoring star for a long old time (nash), decent (but studless) defences, and arguably the most underrated coach for a few years now. so why is this team different? the answer is mason, his goaltending has been clutch, consistent, and everything you could want out of a 10 year vet, let alone a rookie.  watch out for this kid, he reminds me of Nabokov way back when, i don’t know why.  Price is young at heart, Mason is only young in body, that’s the difference between these two.

Posted by jimmy from ny, ny on 03/27/09 at 01:12 PM ET

No…..Look at the team and the coach…Manny Fernandez was a great goalie in Minn as well….Nashville always has a great goalie….Guess why? TRAP TRAP TRAP…Vokoun sucks now, too. Boring, defense first hockey makes great goalies

Posted by kevin from boston on 03/27/09 at 01:14 PM ET

Kevin, not sure how much attention you pay to the Central, but you might be surprised. Obviously, it is Hitchcock, so yes, Columbus is a defense-first club, but when Mason is in net, they open their game up more than they ever have, in the history of the friggin’ franchise. Mason appears to have gained Hitch’s trust, and as such, he lets the team open up, skate more, and play a little more offense than he ever has.

Is Mason is good enough to make Hitchcock willing to play a little offense? Then he’s good enough for me!

As for the question at hand, I think he’s the real deal, but the point is well taken… Carey Price looked just about this good at a number of points last season, and here we are today. I guess if I had to pick a difference and a reason why Mason won’t fall out like Price next season it would be that Price was in a bad situation, while Mason is in a good one. The Habs problems run a lot deeper than goaltending. The coaching hasn’t been stable. The management hasn’t even been stable. And now ownership looks unstable. Add to that the fact that Montreal can be the most difficult place for a hockey player to play because of the fervor and pressure from the fans? Tough for any young goalie to stay strong through that. Mason, on the other hand, has a stable, proven NHL coach in Hitchcock, that he can always count on to put a good defense in front of him. So even if he has a bit of a slump, it won’t look as pronounced. And not to be rude, but if Mason has a few bad games, like Price did in the playoffs last season, the media won’t be freaking out about “what happened to his glove hand?”... because it’s Columbus, OH, not Montreal.

As a side-note, I think Price will still be a great goalie… he may need to leave Montreal to get there though.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 03/27/09 at 01:28 PM ET

Cary Price always sucked in the NHL…......Wasn’t Pascal Leclaire “great” when he was in Columbus. He had a bunch of shutouts, too. It’s the style of play that makes the goalie look good. Minn, Nashville and now Columbus all have had “great ” goalies…..I beg to differ. I’ve seen Columbus play enough to know they don’t give you a sniff of a scoring chance. They have ONE quality forward. The rest are defensive forwards first and formost…..

Posted by kevin from boston on 03/27/09 at 01:34 PM ET

Quickie analysis.  Warning: numbers.

Mason’s ES save percentage is 0.930, league average is 0.919.  Over the 1098 shots he’s faced, that’s a difference of about 12 goals.  His PP save percentage is 0.888, and the league average is 0.867.  Over the 303 PP shots he’s faced, that’s a difference of just 6.4 goals.  This analysis is a bit sketchier for the PP, because Columbus may have an above average penalty kill that doesn’t give up good shots, which may inflate Mason’s save percentage.  In fact, I think this is likely, so let’s be a little conservative and say Mason has saved his team 15 goals above league average goaltending.  (It’s also worth pointing out that Columbus wasn’t getting league average goaltending before Mason, because Leclaire and Norrena were both having horrible seasons.)

So that’s 15 extra goals prevented, over 53 games.  Let’s assume he plays 7 of Columbus’ last 8, bringing his GP to an even 60.  If he keeps up the pace, that’ll wind up being almost exactly 17 fewer goals against for Columbus than they would have had with a league average ‘tender.

Excluding empty net goals, Columbus scored 195 goals for and given up 189 goals against.  Pro-rating for a full season, that’s 216 and 209 (there’s a bit of a fudge here, because I’m assuming Mason will play relatively more of the last 8 games than he did of the first 74, but it’s a pretty minor effect).

So Columbus’ goal differential with Mason playing 60 games is +7, and with a league average goalie playing those games, it would be -10.  Using rough Pythagorean expectation without adjusting for SO results (Mason may have made an impact in those, but it’s such a crapshoot that who really knows?), Mason improved Columbus’ winning percentage from 0.477 to 0.516, or 3.2 wins over 82 games.  Because he’s a goalie and doesn’t play all 82 games, the effect is a bit stronger than that, so let’s call it 3.5 wins, which means 7 points.

I’m sure that seems small to most people, but remember that I’m comparing him to average goaltending.  And by ‘average’, I don’t mean I averaged all 87 goalies save percentages, I mean I took the total number of shots and saves.  What that means is that goalies who have played more games (who are more likely to be good goalies) are weighted more heavily.  And since Columbus’ other options in goal have been playing badly all season, Mason’s impact relative to those guys is much more than 7 points.  So this isn’t the points Mason added above ‘replacement level’, in other words.  Although to be fair, if Mason hadn’t stepped in and played well, Columbus might have traded for a goalie, or Leclaire may have found his game back.

The other thing to remember is that for a team on pace for 94 points, 7 points is the difference between making and missing the playoffs.  That’s significant.

It’s pretty clear that Mason has been their most important player, even if he only plays 60 of their 82 games, and that they wouldn’t be in the playoffs without him.  He’s certainly had more of an impact than any other Calder candidate, although how he compares to other Hart candidates is a mixed bag full of worms.  Mileage may vary.

Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 03/27/09 at 01:50 PM ET

take a look at leclaire’s numbers last year through 54 games he had 9 so’s .919 save % and 2.25 gaa. mason’s #‘s through 53 games 10 so’s .920 save % and 2.18 gaa. they are virtually the same goaltender. clearly the system has something to do with their success.

Posted by thom from cali on 03/27/09 at 02:07 PM ET

From what I’ve seen of Mason against the Wings, he is the the real deal. In fact, I’d go so far as to say he’s the Jonathan Ericsson of goaltenders.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 03/27/09 at 02:43 PM ET

Yeah, but again, I have to ask, how much have you guys watched of Columbus this season? I’ll defer to Bethany, but I’ve seen about a dozen games, which I’m guessing is more than most non-BJ fans (like those exist, right… I digress).

The answer isn’t totally in his numbers. You gotta watch the kid play, and see when he makes these saves, how big they are, and the momentum and confidence he gives his team. If you want me to say Tim Thomas is better, or whatever it is you’re getting at, cool, but that doesn’t mean that Mason isn’t the real deal. I’d take him on my team over every goalie in the league right now, save for Luongo and Broduer (because you’re the best till you’re taken out or you leave, right?).

Believe me, I hope to hell Mason sucks hard next year. I hope he is worse next year than Price was this year. Because with the way he’s played, the improvement the Blues have made, and the vast improvements Chicago has made, Detroit isn’t going to likely compete for the 1 seed anymore, it’ll be the 3 seed they’ll all be fighting for.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 03/27/09 at 03:02 PM ET