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1st Month Fantasy Disappointments & Surprises
by Hippy Dave on 11/09/09 at 05:00 PM ET
Comments (5)
Well I just wrapped up bottling my hyper-experimental espresso-oatmeal stout (I’m calling it “Breakfast"), and as a result am wired at midnight. The mixture of suds and caffeine is giving me an itchy trigger finger on Yahoo and I figured I’d write another article to boot.
So the season is just over a month old and after 15 or so games in we’ve finally got enough data to see who look to be top producers this season, and who are dropping like stones. I polled my own fantasy league to find out what our armchair GMs thought about their most disappointing players; how did that early-round draft pick turn into wire-bait? Will they bounce back? Voice your own frustrations and prognostications below.
Myself (The Raging Hippies):
- Well I was wrong about Ville Leino. After an impressive start last year with 9 points in 13 games, he’s been invisible on the ice this year on a team that needs him to step up, scoring only 3 points in 14 games and languishing at a -4. Ugh.
- Ditto with Nikita Filatov. 2G, 0A, wire bait. I dropped his ass, picked up Ales Kotalik and haven’t looked back.
- Speaking of Blue Jackets, I drafted Derick Brassard, only to be forced to dump him to the wire when I realized he wasn’t taking faceoffs anymore. If only Yahoo gave him some winger eligibility.
- I put a lot of stake in the likes of Jonas Hiller and Pekka Rinne. Although the two are getting a fair amount of starts, they’re just not delivering at the level they were in last year’s playoffs. Rinne only has 4 wins in 9 starts, with a 2.81 GAA and .904%; it’s beginning to look like the starting job may be slipping away from him. To Hiller’s credit, even though he’s got a 2.76GAA, he’s posting a .919% after 13 starts; that beats Marty Brodeur - the man’s seeing more rubber than a homecoming queen. Anaheim must be missing Pronger badly.
- It looks like Alex Kovalev is still “living up” to expectations in Ottawa, 4G, 2A, -5.
- I’m so glad I didn’t pick up Thomas Vanek again this year. He should come with a bottle of Rolaids in any trade.
- Jordan Staal - 4G, 3A; at least he has 117 faceoff wins. Keep an eye on this kid, as long as Malkin’s hurt, he’ll have plenty of ice time to prove himself.
- Martin Havlat - After a 77 point season in Chicago, Havlat has struggled on the Wild, posting only one goal and 6 assists with a horrific -12. If I were you, I’d make a trade for this guy as he is buy-low now and can only improve on these numbers.
- Steve Mason - I really feel for you if you drafted this goalie early. I was very tempted after the showing he had last season, but with a 3.27GAA and a .891% this year, I wouldn’t blame you if you felt like jumping off a bridge. I believe he’ll put things back together eventually.
Team Filth
- Eric Staal: “My first pick after our 3 keepers. 13 games, 3 goals, 2 assists and -5. Not what I expected. He usually finishes better than he starts though so I will stick with him.”
- Denns Wideman: “Two points and a -2 in 12 games after 50 points and +32 last year? WTF?”
- David Backes: “31 goals and 150 PIMs in a monster fantasy year last year. This year 2 points and 13 PIMs in 13 games. WTF?”
- TJ Oshie: “Thought he was set for stardom, but he started slow and I couldn’t keep a center with no faceoffs so I dropped his ass.”
- “Had a good feeling about Stamkos, that if he got a little stronger that he would be great. Glad that I got him in the draft.”
Team Tragically Hipcheck
- Roberto Luongo: “He was supposed to be my main man, but this season he started off by sucking really bad, and then just when I thought he was coming around he got injured.”
Team Finnish your Czechs
- “Do Franzen and Malkin (injured) as keepers count?”
- “How about those poor bastards that kept Vinny?”
Looking Forward...
Since a month ago, the likes of the following have all hit the wire: Seabrook, Pitkanen, Toskala, Brassard, Filatov, Schneider, Langenbrunner (later re-aquired), Rolston, Lucic, Saku Koivu, Olli Jokinen, Conroy, Hainsey, White, Cleary, Oshie, Gagner, Fedotenko, Perron, Ryder, Drury, Blake, Brind’Amour, Ladd, Pavelski, and Jason Williams.
Though some of these are due to one of the biggest injury seasons in recent memory, seeing perrennial fantasy standards such as Saku Koivu, Olli Jokinen, Chris Drury, and even Rod Brind’Amour slide into the waste bin is to me a little surprising. Keep an eye on these guys for a late-season rebound.
Also keep an eye on who’s coming off injury. One example: Joe Pavelski. In the 5-0 blowout against Pittsburgh on Saturday he had a goal and an assist in his first game back since October 3rd. He assisted Dany Heatley, and scored on the power play; and that was only with 14 minutes of ice time.
If you’ve got an empty IR spot or two, you may want to consider stowing away a few of the casualties of the latest crop of injuries that may have dropped to the wire. Milan Lucic just got snatched up in our league, with Blake, Hedman, and Drury hitting the wire; no doubt you’re seeing some similar activity in your leagues.
For the rest of you who are clinging on to your picks waiting for them to turn around, I’d love to hear what you have to say. Let the bitching begin!
Filed in: Fantasy Hockey and Gaming | KK Hockey | Permalink
Comments
After 5 weeks in a head-to-head league, I’m 27-30-8. That puts me in 5th out of 8 teams with 62 points, 16 points out of first place.
My failure so far has largely been due to slow starts from guys like Iginla, Eric Staal, Ray Whitney and Jonas Hiller. And then Injuries have had an especially hard hit on my team. Lots of big names down this season, but they’ve been pretty scattered in this league...except my team, which currently has 5 or 6 guys down.
Dropped David Booth about 2 weeks prior to the hit in favor of Briere once he hit RW eligibility , but Booth was going slow anyway. Then Gonchar went down. Dropped Tom Gilbert and picked up Brent Seabrook. He promptly went down with a concussion. He’s back now, but I have no idea if he’s really back to speed or not. Simon Gagne went officially IR before Gonchar and I used his slot to pick up Ray Emery who someone foolishly dropped. Eric Staal out 2-4 weeks, Danny Briere and Ray Whitney day-to-day, Henrik Lundqvist held out once or twice because of a foot injury. Despite all this, most of my loss categories have been pretty close.
So the roster looks like this now, with any 4 of these guys on the bench.
C - Jeff Carter
C - Eric Stall (2-4weeks)
C/RW - Danny Briere (DTD)
LW - Brendan Morrow
LW - Ray Whitney (DTD)
LW/RW - Bobby Ryan
RW - Jarome Iginla
RW - Jamie Langenbrunner
D - Zdeno Chara
D - Chris Pronger
D - Sergei Gonchar (IR)
D - Brent Seabrook (is he really healthy?)
D - Ryan Suter
G - Henrik Lundqvist (mostly playing)
G - Ray Emery
G - Jonas Hiller
IR - LW - Simon Gagne (IR)
I’m not worried about Iginla’s slow start, and he looks to be turning around. Staal loss stings the most. Whitney and Langenbrunner have been disappointing as well. I’m a bit concerned about a sophomore slump from Bobby Ryan, but playing with Getzlaf and Perry, It shouldn’t be a big issue. Morrow I got in the final round, and he’s been better than expected early. Pronger(damnit), has been excellent as well.
Posted by Nate A from Dark side of the moon on 11/09/09 at 09:13 PM ET
Bah! Didn’t get my picks in on time.
Duds so far this season:
Alex Tanguay- Granted, new team and all, but pretty shameful stats without having an injury.
Carey Price- Almost no fantasy value as a starting goaltender going on a few years now. What’s up with this kid?
Brad Boyes- At least Tanguay has the excuse of changing teams. Boyes has been floating since day one.
Studs so far this season:
Anze Kopitar- I’ve drafted Kopitar and Stansy for the last 3 years and am only mildly surprised one would have a start like Kopitar’s. Hope it keeps up, with Crosby and Zetterberg on my roster down the center I’m unstoppable on goals, assist’s, face-offs won and power play points.
Ryan Malone- After the Daniel Sedin injury I found Malone on the waiver wire and wow! Looks to be 40 goals plus on season at this pace.
Marty Turco- Seems to have rebounded well from poor season. Not the workhorse he was but still saavy, servicable starts and occasional shut-out.
Zamboners
Posted by Puck from San Francisco, CA on 11/10/09 at 01:15 AM ET
FYI I’m in a 10-man, 21 roster spot head-to-head league.
Zamboners/Puck and I are head to head this week so I’ll let everyone know how it turns out.
John - Savard was my #1 pick after our first three keepers, I managed to weather the storm of his injury by picking up Wolski, Kotalik, Moulson, Brunette, Peverly, and Justin Williams. All of which are scoring at the point per game rate at the moment.
That’s pretty impressive to see you turned your D around so effectively, Nate. I wonder what you had to give up for that. I generally don’t value D spots so much, and generally go with a short bench (4 out of 6 D) in favor of more forwards.
My roster today:
G A +/- PIM PPP SHP GWG FW
C Ryan Getzlaf (Anh - C) 1 14 4 10 5 0 0 112
C Rich Peverley (Atl - C) 7 10 3 8 6 1 3 94
C Mikko Koivu (Min - C) 4 9 -11 8 8 0 0 167
LW Wojtek Wolski (Col - LW) 8 7 7 6 3 0 2 3
LW Andrew Brunette (Min - LW) 7 4 -6 4 7 0 1 5
LW Matt Moulson (NYI - LW) 7 6 3 6 5 0 0 1
RW Jason Pominville 4 7 1 4 5 0 0 13
RW Bryan Little 2 6 3 2 1 0 0 21
RW Justin Williams 4 9 5 6 2 0 1 0
D Mike Green 2 11 3 14 5 0 0 0
D Tomas Kaberle 2 16 -4 4 12 1 0 0
D Cam Barker 3 5 -3 10 4 0 1 0
D Ryan Whitney 1 7 6 14 4 0 0 0
D --empty--
D --empty--
BN Michael Cammalleri 7 7 6 10 3 0 1 11
BN Shane Doan 5 9 -4 11 9 0 0 11
BN Brenden Morrow 7 7 -1 22 6 0 2 4
BN Ales Kotalik 6 9 -6 16 12 0 2 0
BN Danny Briere 5 2 -5 6 3 0 1 5
BN Joe Pavelski 1 3 3 4 2 0 0 14
IR Marc Savard 4 3 1 4 3 0 1 57
W GAA SV% SHO
G Martin Brodeur 9 2.35 .913 1
BN Pekka Rinne 4 2.81 .904 1
BN Jonas Hiller 6 2.76 .919 1
Of the bunch, Kaberle, a lifer on my team, has turned into a very pleasant surprise.
Zamboners - you’re going down!
Posted by Hippy Dave from San Francisco by way of Detroit on 11/10/09 at 03:33 PM ET
I made 2 moves since my post. I got rid of Grebeshkov because his -8 rating is killing me, and I think Souray will be back within the next 2 weeks. I added RW Afinogenov in his place, as he is off to a nice start this year.
I have been shopping Dustin Brown around for some time for a LW (my weakest position by far), as he is not quite as valuable in this league as there are no SOG stats. Adding Afinogenov as a RW made Brown even more expendable, and I just completed a trade in which I acquired Ryan Malone for Brown. Malone is off to a 10G (instantly making him my leaging goal scorer) 4A start in 15 games. I finally have a more respectable LW corp with Malone, Neal, Versteeg, and Fleischmann. A bit unheralded, but solid enough when taking into consideration how stacked I am at Center.
Being my first year in fantasy hockey, I think next year I will put a little more emphasis at trying to get an elite LW in the draft, there don’t seem to be very many around.
Posted by John W. from Lansing, MI on 11/11/09 at 06:10 PM ET
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I am in a 10 team, 21-man roster, 1 starting goalie, H2H league. I have been pretty busy over the first month, although most of it was just trying to find that last forward and D-man to fill out the roster. I have lead the league since week 1, here’s a few of my happenings:
I really wanted Pavel Datsyuk (as if you couldn’t tell by the avatar) and I ended up trading Marc Savard and Bobby Ryan for Pav and Dustin Brown. I knew I overpaid a little to get him, but with Savard hurt and Ryan off to a slow start, so far so good. But Pav, if you’re reading this, let’s pick it up a little, ok?
I was one of the unlucky ones to draft Mason as my #1 goalie, however, it was an autodraft, and with only 1 starting goalie position, I ended up with Ryan Miller as my backup, so that turned out ok after all.
My D started out pretty awful, with Kronwall, Pitkanen, Kuba, Timmonen, Ericsson, and Wisniewski, 3 of which started out the first week getting injured. Through some free-agent signings and trades, my D is now a strong suit with Pronger, Keith, Rafalski, Kronwall, Visnovsky, and Grebeshkov, along with Souray who is on IR. Yeah, I know that’s 3 Oilers, but after Souray is back, Grebeshkov is probably gone, unless he makes it so I can’t possibly cut him.
Players I drafted and have cut ties with include Michalek (right before his hat trick @#$!), Clowe, and David Krejci (what a disappointment)
My team now stands as such:
C Pavel Datsyuk
C Mike Richards
C Jason Spezza (finally scored a goal, yay!)
LW James Neal (he has literally saved my LW position)
LW Kris Versteeg
LW Tomas Fleischmann (LW, RW) (Ovie, please stay out a while longer)
RW Alexander Semin (no points last week, even in a 7 goal Caps win, really???)
RW Ales Hemsky
RW Dustin Brown
D Chris Pronger (man I hate him, but boy is he producing)
D Duncan Keith
D Brian Rafalski
D Nik Kronwall
D Lubomir Visnovsky
D Denis Grebeshkov
Util Tim Connolly (please stay healthy for once)
BN Brendan Morrison
BN Todd Bertuzzi (LW, RW) (only have him cuz there isn’t much else & he is L/R)
BN Sheldon Souray (IR)
IR Johan Franzen (RW)
G Ryan Miller
BN Steve Mason (G)
Good for a 40-13-12 (92 points) start.
This is my first year with any fantasy sports and I’m having a blast.
Posted by John W. from Lansing, MI on 11/09/09 at 05:41 PM ET