Very reasoned article with one flaw:  these are the playoff Red Wings team and whatever happened in the regular season is NOT necessarily indicative of the Wings current play.

Posted by SYF from a "Bron-Y-Aur Stomp" on 05/16/09 at 01:54 PM ET

Hmmmm,
No mention of the Hawks young defense?

Posted by HockeyTownTodd on 05/16/09 at 01:58 PM ET

Skill players don’t enjoy being hit. The Hawks’ top guns have shown they can handle the physical pressure throughout the playoffs. Chicago will have to test the will of the skillful Wings in this series by hitting them often.

And the Ducks didn’t try this?

If Detroit didn’t “want to win,” they wouldn’t have beaten the Ducks because it would have required too much effort.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 05/16/09 at 02:33 PM ET

I understand the “fatigue” factor people keep bringing up, but honestly, I don’t see it hurting the Wings all that much.  The schedule for this round is padded by so many off days that everyone will have plenty of rest.

Posted by BuzzFledderjohn on 05/16/09 at 03:13 PM ET

The fatigue factor is a non-factor.

Detroit had oodles of days off before the second round, whereas Anaheim not so much. Everyone was ready to call the Ducks ‘gassed’ after Game Five, yet they put together two of their best games of the series in Games Six and Seven. Also, no travel fatigue in this series.

Fatigue is just another thing for bloggers, talking heads, and reporters to talk about. If Pierre McGuire mentions it, you know it’s a non-story.

Move on, people, there is nothing to see here.

Posted by Red Winger from Sault Ste Marie on 05/16/09 at 03:34 PM ET

Lifelong Chicagoan who’s covered the Hawks for three years picks…the Hawks? If this were the Pensblog, I’d be stunned. I particularly like how he mentions that, compared to Osgood,  “Khabibulin has been better throughout this season”, yet conveniently ignores that his goaltender owns the worst statistics of those still in the playoffs. And Rafalski is 35 and plays a ton of minutes, but did you hear, Al, that he sat out the first five games of the Anaheim series? I’m sure he’s on his last legs.

Posted by shep on 05/16/09 at 04:02 PM ET

It may all come down to “want” and at this point I can’t pick against this group.

Well, they can want it all they want, Al. That and two bucks will get them a crappy cup of Starbucks. And they’re about to find out what Uncle Mike has been preaching throughout these playoffs: “Until you’ve done it, you have no idea what it takes to do it.”

I want a million bucks. I want free beer. I want a Jag and a mansion and a yacht. And I’m as close to getting any of those as the Hawks are to winning the Western Conference Finals.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 05/16/09 at 05:24 PM ET

Gee, when I talked to Al last year, this is what I said:

“Yeah, I’d like two larges, Pepperoni and Mush… and an order of bread.  Yeah, cash.  Okay.  Twenty minutes?  Great.  See you then.”

Good for him.  I like to see a guy get ahead.

Posted by HockeyinHD on 05/16/09 at 05:46 PM ET

I know in those games, both teams had players missing. Detroit may not have been very interested in the last game of the season, but they certainly didn’t want to lose at home to Chicago. Detroit had just suffered a bad home loss to Nashville a couple of days earlier and they did want to make up for that performance.

World of duh… what team ever wants to lose? Wings had nothing to play for in either game. Of course they still wanted to win, but the Wings coasted through the entire regular season. The Winter Classic was one of maybe a dozen games they actually brought better than a B- game to, and it wasn’t much better than a B-. And don’t forget the awful call that gave the Hawks a penalty shot at the end of that game in Detroit at the end of the year.

Honestly, Al, have you watched any Red Wings hockey the last three seasons?

Detroit appeared a bit worn out in Game 7 and Chicago has to take advantage of their younger legs. Nicklas Lidstrom is 39 years old and Brain Rafalski is 35 and they both play a ton of minutes.

Again, have you watched any Red Wings hockey lately? And have you looked at the actual numbers, or did you just decide to throw out a few half-hearted ideas with no facts to base them on?

Nick Lidstrom has averaged about 26.5 minutes per game this playoff. That is in the top five in ice time, but note that he barely cracked the top 15 in ice time per game during the regular season. Also note that his ice time is down from years past. And also note that in 11 games thus far, he’s got 11 points—only had 13 all playoff last season. Doesn’t sound like a guy running on fumes, does it?

Rafalski had over two weeks off between games, and was STELLAR in games six and seven against the Ducks. He’s got plenty of zip and is ready to go. Again, do you watch the games?

Oh, and one stupid obvious thing you forgot to look at when talking about fatigue factor—Wings have played 11 games in the playoffs thus far, Hawks have played 12. Not much to split ‘em there. I know the Hawks have had more days off going into this series, but so did Vancouver (the Hawks won) and so did Detroit (Ducks took ‘em to seven).

And what team were you watching in game seven that was tired? Did they look tired when they repeatedly willed the puck to center ice, built a wall at the blue line during the final three minutes of play, and hardly surrendered a scoring chance to the Ducks when they needed to clamp down?

Nikolai Khabibulin has to outperform Chris Osgood. Osgood is just good enough, which is no slight to him. He has won championships and is an unbelievable competitor but Khabibulin has been better throughout this season. In this series Khabibulin needs to shine and outduel his counterpart.

Funny, because this POSTseason, Osgood has been the better goalie. Both goalies have faced just over 300 shots. Osgood’s save percentage is nearly 30 points better. And he had to go against the best offensive line in the playoffs for seven games. Khabibulin had to take on… Kyle Wellwood? Playoff sensations (sarcasm) the Sedin twins? A half-dead Mats Sundin? Rick Rypien? What?

Yeah, and Ozzie has a better GAA by almost 3/4 of a goal… which, after four games in the series, equates to a difference of three goals. Throw out Osgood’s game four against the BJs, as it was clearly an outlier, and the numbers fall in his favor even more. And since you clearly haven’t watched any Wings games, the reason that game is an outlier is because Osgood was clearly hurt in the second period after the BJs ran him hard.

And hey, Hiller was better than Osgood. Last season, there are good cases to be had that MAF was better than him in the Cup finals. You are right about one thing—Khabibulin WILL have to be better than Osgood, but the point is that even if he is, it means jack-shit.

The Hawks can now be content to let their two lines play even with the Wings’ top forwards. Players like Kane, Toews, and Havlat have to score but mainly they just have to hold serve, so to speak.

Wrong. As great as the Hawks top line is and will continue to be, the Ducks top line was/is better, and has a lot more playoff savvy. They dominated in all but one, maybe two games of the seven in that series. Detroit easily finished in the negative when you compare the Getzlaf line’s production to whatever line matchup they drew at any given time. And yet Detroit still won the series…

The Hawks top three forwards will have to do more than hold serve. They’ll have to outshine Detroit’s top three forwards. Then Chicago’s depth will have to be better than Detroit’s.

It’s the bottom six forwards of the Hawks which can provide the edge if they can outplay their Wing counterparts. This will mean Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg and Samuel Pahlsson will have to be at the top of their game at both ends of the ice. They can be a meaningful element which the Wings may have trouble contending with. That leaves the stage set for productive and physical minutes of action from the Chicago fourth line.

I am including Patrick Sharp on the fourth line as he could wind up being Quenneville’s ace in the hole. Having a deep enough team to spread out the talent so that a recent 30-goal scorer skates on the fourth line is an edge for the Blackhawks. Sharp is a tough, smart hockey player who can be a difference maker. He can score five-on-five and is also great on the power play.

You are right, the Hawks depth will have to be better than Detroit’s for the Hawks to win this series. But how can you say Versteeg and Sharp are part of the Hawks’ “depth” forwards? Aren’t they part of Chicago’s six best forwards? That’s like me saying Franzen and Hossa are “depth” players for the Wings. Silly.

The Wings had Hossa skating with Helm on the third line. Sharp is a very good player. Hossa is better.

Here’s a fun note—the Wings only have two minus players in the playoffs—Maltby and Chelios. The Hawks have six, including Kane and Versteeg, who are two of their six best forwards.

Skill players don’t enjoy being hit. The Hawks’ top guns have shown they can handle the physical pressure throughout the playoffs. Chicago will have to test the will of the skillful Wings in this series by hitting them often.

Detroit out-hit the Ducks and Blue Jackets—two teams with much bigger forward corps than Detroit, and two teams with bigger forwards than Chicago.

Again, if you had watched a Wings game or two the last three seasons, you’d know that hitting doesn’t deter them. Even if they aren’t out-hitting a team, they are never discouraged as a result of physical play. Chicago can try mightily, but they have nothing in their thuggery toolbox that Detroit hasn’t seen repeatedly from Anaheim, Columbus, Nashville, and Calgary over the last three post-seasons. They’re not about to give into physical play all of a sudden.

And remember, the Hawks have skillful players, as well. And I might add, Kane, Versteeg, and Toews aren’t particularly big or even physically developed, to say the least. I seem to remember Cleary putting a hurting on Kane earlier in the season. It’s been a long time since the Wings could say this in a series, but the Wings have skilled players that are much bigger than Kane, Versteeg, and Toews, in Hossa and Franzen. And guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg are physically better developed than those guys, and have incredibly underrated, surprisingly good hitting games come playoff time.

Kane, Versteeg, and Toews have combined for 21 hits in the playoffs. A similar smaller, skilled forward—Pavel Datsyuk—has 20 hits on his own. Zetterberg has 15. And for chrissakes—Valterri Filppula has 12!

As I said yesterday, Pahlsson has to be a decisive factor for the Hawks. Quenneville will need him to defend against the Wings’ top forwards and to also win a lot of faceoffs.

Sorry, but this is a pipe-dream. Even without Draper, the Wings are the best face-off team in the West. With him, it’s not even close. The four centers that will likely take most face-offs for Detroit in this series are all better than 50%. That doesn’t even include the natural centers Detroit plays on the wing that can step in when a guy is thrown out of the circle, or when Babcock juggles lines—Franzen, Abdelkader, and Cleary all add better than 50% winning percentages to the likes of Draper’s 78% (that’ll come down, but not much below 60%, if even that), Filppula’s 51%, Helm’s 53%, and Zetterberg’s 55%. Oh, and Datsyuk wins 54%, that is, if he’s not playing with Hank and takes the draws himself.

On the flip-side, Toews is the only Hawk that takes regular face-offs and wins over half of them, at 61%. It won’t stay that high going against such a good face-off team in Detroit. And Pahlsson? 49%. Not great, but not even breaking even. Not good for a guy that you count on to kill penalties and keep good players off the scoresheet.

The Hawks CAN win this series. But your reasons are total crap. Admit it—it will take a below-potential effort from Detroit in at least a couple games for the Hawks to win this series. And it will take a lot of efforts from the Hawks that the numbers and expectations don’t suggest will happen, as I’ve pointed out above.

But, the games aren’t played by numbers, they’re played by people. So we watch and we cheer our teams on.

I just think the arguments in favor of my team winning this thing are way more solid, logical, and reasonable than the arguments supporting your team winning this thing.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 05/16/09 at 10:30 PM ET

Holy crap, Nathan. It’s hard to find anything you missed there, so let me just embelish one of your points. The “Bulin Wall” has stopped 89.6% of the shots he’s faced in the playoffs. Against two offensively challenged teams, he’s only faced an average of 26.6 shots per game. The Wings, on the other hand, have fired an average of 40.2 shots per game against their opponents.

Unless Chicago plans on putting up more than four goals per game, they’re going to be joining the Duckies on the golf course in about two weeks. And, just for reference, it’s going to take more than the Hawks 29 shots per game to score those four goals per game when they’re facing a guy with a 91.2% Save Percentage and who’s fronted by a far better defense than the Hawks have seen so far.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 05/16/09 at 10:54 PM ET