Ooooh, look out! Bar the doors, lock him up, quarantine his house and family.

This H1N1 scare is way overblown, thanks to the media. News anchors are even playing it up when the supposedly come down with it - for ratings of course. More people die each year from the “normal” flu than they do of H1N1.

He’s sick, that stinks, but just because it’s H1N1 doesn’t make it more serious than other flus. The only fact this made as big of news that it did was because of that keyword - “H1N1” and it hitting a professional athlete and it will make for a good news story.

Oh, now look, the sky is falling.

Sorry Paul, I like your site very much, I am just fed up with the media lately and thus I’m ranting on here rather than going “Postal” at work.

Posted by Simian on 10/27/09 at 02:44 PM ET

It isn’t the mortality rate that is making the H1N1 virus a news story - an illness doesn’t have to be fatal to be disruptive.

The issue is that this is a new variant so the population as a whole - and especially younger people - has no immunity from prior exposure, and because of some particular characteristics of the virus it has been slow to replicate in eggs so the virus available for producing vaccines is not at nearly the level anyone would like it to be to make enough vaccine to protect the population.

The mortality rate is really irrelevant - the high infectivity and transmission is extremely relevant.  It doesn’t matter that the 50% of employees in a business will be better in two weeks instead of dead; it does matter that for that two week period, the remaining employees are going to be extremely stressed because they have to cover overtime and extra shifts for those sick or caring for others who are.  And if the business is a hospital, or a public utility, or an airport - it could be extremely hazardous and disruptive for others without a virus with an especially high mortality rate.

Of course, the first wave of the 1918 influenza epidemic was quite mild, too - it was only the successive waves that resulted in an estimated 100 million dead worldwide.  You know, if you want a worst-case scenario to panic about. 

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 10/27/09 at 03:54 PM ET

This H1N1 scare is way overblown, thanks to the media. News anchors are even playing it up when the supposedly come down with it - for ratings of course. More people die each year from the “normal” flu than they do of H1N1.

Really, it’s all just hype?

Funny, I live in a area where all the schools for counties all around have been closing down because they can’t get enough students to show up to have the day actually count.  We’re talking about a school going from one day having maybe only 5% of kids out sick, to 30% the next day.  School are closing down for 3, 4, 5 days at a time trying to work in weekends around it so people can get healthy and not spread it.

For the record, I have never seen schools shut down for days on end because so many kids are sick the school days wouldn’t count anyways with the state.

I suppose if you don’t live in area where it’s actually having any sort of impact, it probably doesn’t seem like a big deal.  But it’s very scary if you’re a parent of small children and school, churches, youth programs, and even some businesses are shutting down because the sucker is spreading fast.  And it’s also kinda’ scary if someone you love is pregnant and might exposed to it.

Posted by Primis on 10/27/09 at 03:54 PM ET

Of course, the first wave of the 1918 influenza epidemic was quite mild, too - it was only the successive waves that resulted in an estimated 100 million dead worldwide.  You know, if you want a worst-case scenario to panic about.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t we also have an exponentially improved ability to handle the secondary bacterial infections that were to blame for a majority of those deaths? As well as anti-virals that can treat the infection if prevention doesn’t work (or preventative measures weren’t taken)?

Seriously, Baroque, I’m asking… not being sarcastic. If I remember correctly you have a background closer to these things than I do…

Overall, I think that the media is blowing it WAY out of proportion, but I do think that caution is important to ensure that it ends up being no more (in impact) than your typical mutated flu strain that shows up every single flu season.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 10/27/09 at 04:14 PM ET

Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t we also have an exponentially improved ability to handle the secondary bacterial infections that were to blame for a majority of those deaths? As well as anti-virals that can treat the infection if prevention doesn’t work (or preventative measures weren’t taken)?

This is true - but by far the most significant difference is in the way society handles illness now in general compared to two things in the world at the time of the 1918 pandemic: scientific knowledge and the war.

Currently, there is a medical community that understands the difference between viruses, bacteria, and parasites as infectious agents, and how each may be attacked.  Vaccination is a widely accepted means of controlling infection.  Given solid information, people are less likely to panic in tmes of illness - they are told to get vaccinated, stay home if they are ill, make sure they wash their hands frequently, these are the symptoms to be concerned about if their kid is sick - and these are all things that people can do realistically, usually without a lot of hardship, and they are effective and seen to be effective so they not only provide measures as infection control but also provide reassurance so although people are concerned, some may be a bit jumpy, there is not widespread panic.  The state of medicine and epidemiology in 1918 was absolutely medieval, but grew greatly in dealing with the pandemic - the research that came out of trying to chase down the influenza and tease explanations from the natural world really did nothing less than firmly set medicine on a foundation of science that endures to this day.  In 1918, there was no established procedure for figuring out the causative agent of a disease and analyzing its spread.  The doctors and researchers at the time were groping blindly in the dark for answers they knew were there, but the tools they had were still being developed.

Also, in 1918 there was a tremendous push to not hurt morale because of the war, and this resulted in the deaths of others who might have lived otherwise because the local governments lied to them.  All the time the city governments - Philadelphia was one of the worst - were telling their people to show up to war bond drives, not to be afraid, it’s only the flu, only the normal flu, nothing serious - meanwhile the residents knew damn well it WAS serious because bodies were being removed from houses all over their street, and they were terrified to the point that some who fell ill were abandoned by family members to die, while if their relatives hadn’t panicked and fled they might have pulled through with care.  One of the side effects of the pandemic was many health departments being reorganized so they were professional and run by medical professionals instead of cronies, and they were not as much at the whim of the commands of the politicians who had motives other than “how can we keep people healthy.”

The fact that so many in the public can look at the prospect of pandemic influenza and meet the prospect with a clear idea of measures to be taken to lessen the chance of spreading and a sense of concern but not blind panic is the end result of the research that really started with exhausted doctors trying to hunt down why so many people were dying of something that seemed not so very different than regular influenza using the skills they developed in laboratories and not legends and folklore.

By the way, anyone who wants to read a fantastic, really excellent book about the pandemic, check out The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History by John M. Barry.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 10/27/09 at 05:46 PM ET

GAH!  I didn’t mean to write such a treatise!  Sorry, Nathan.  :(

Short version - yes, medical knowledge is far advanced, but also there is a broad awareness in the political entities that to deny an illness in an attempt to bolster morale will just make things worse, because people will believe the evidence of their own eyes instead of empty governmental platitudes.  As a result, there is both the medical knowledge of means to limit the spread of an epidemic, and also the acceptance by the public that the measures are effective and so they are more likely to do what they can and less likely to panic.  As a result, an epidemic will still be extremely serious, but it will be far more limited in effect compared to a century ago.  (As a comparison, if the same proportion of the world population died now as did then, there would be 175 to 350 million dead worldwide - and most of those in a matter of six months.  That will not happen with influenza with modern medicine.  Several tens of millions, highly likely - but not multiple hundreds of millions.)

(And read The Great Influenza by John Barry.)

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 10/27/09 at 05:55 PM ET

I’m with you Baroque. It’s contagious and disruptive, can’t argue with that.

What i’m tired of hearing about is the panic and the media feeding the frenzy. Oh no! now look who’s got it - a celebrity, an athlete, now our news reporter. Darn near every media outlet is jumping on this thing and looking for any reason to utter the words H1N1 or swine flu. Every day the same thing, wash, rinse, repeat. Meanwhile there’s a growing panic because of it.

Reading Baroque’s history lesson, i see comparisons to where we are today. But we haven’‘t seen the world wide death count, just lots of sickness. Some will say just wait, this is still early yet, the worse is yet to come. But as Baroque also said, we’ve got modern medicine to fix it. Government lying to the people back then - could they just as well be lying to us now, telling us it’s ok to get the H1N1 vaccine? What’s in the vaccine that the Obama kids aren’t even getting it.

I’ve got kids, one in kindergarten another young one at home, both in the church nursery and my wife is pregnant. I see schools closing all around us. Parents I talk to are repeating the same panic ridden cliches the news outlets are. That’s how i tell people are buying the fear the news spreads. It’s causing chaos. Would as many schools be closing if people weren’t so hyper sensitive to that subject? I suppose 30% sick is a valid reason though i have to wonder if that’s really the case when i start seeing many other public events, gatherings, classes, etc being cancelled as well.

I’m just not buying into the hype is all, and thanks for the history Baroque.

Posted by Simian on 10/27/09 at 07:14 PM ET

@ Simian -

I’m sure the vaccine is safe (it’s pretty similar to the regular seasonal flu vaccine), but some people are at lower priority, are terrified of needles (//raises hand here), or can’t get it because it is in short supply in their area.  If what you say about the Obama girls is true, I’m not surprised - one of them has pretty bad allergies (came up when they were talking about getting a puppy), and if someone has respiratory issues then a vaccine for a respiratory illness can be more problematic.

And I want to smack the people who are insanely jumpy about the whole thing, too.  Wash hands,take care of yourself, use proper sensible precautions, and don’t ignore serious symptoms if you or your kid gets sick (like a serious fever), but just be alert instead of hysterical.  Fear never helped anyone get better, and if someone is basically healthy and their symptoms are mild they are not likely to die of the flu.  Respect the virus and what it can do, but don’t run scared.  that’s just pointless.

Still, you can’t blame the media too much - they need some bright shiny penny to attract their interest and they are very easily bored.  Maybe someone else can launch a homemade weather balloon to distract them from the influenza virus? 

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 10/27/09 at 07:26 PM ET

@ Baroque from Michigan

Thanx for that great tutorial.
You are truely amazing.

Posted by Lindas1st from New England on 10/27/09 at 08:00 PM ET

I had it.  It sucks.  2 weeks of sleep and gatorade. Move on.

Posted by Aimee in Austin on 10/27/09 at 11:55 PM ET