You can almost always anticipate when a goal is going to be scored against the Wings.  The team gets possession deep and establishes control of the puck, and the Wings can’t break the stranglehold on the puck and sooner of later it ends up in back of the net.

The Pens do have the size and stick skills to establish the kind of extended possession in the Wings zone that results in goals. 

i wouldn’t be too quick to pick the Wings.  If they separate the puck from the Pens and quickly pass it out of their own zone as they’re capable of the Wings will win this series, but if the size advantage of the Pens becomes the dominant theme then they’ll take it home with them, playoff experience be damned.

Posted by RWBill from jabbing a six inch sewing needle into my eye. on 05/21/08 at 01:13 PM ET

Osgood will certainly face more shots and offensive pressure in this series than he did in the previous three, while Fleury is used to facing more shots and could adjust more quickly to the Red Wings offensive attack. It’ll be interesting to see how well Osgood fares under the heavier workload.

Pittsburgh gives up 27.9 shots a game, Detroit takes 36.3. Theoretical increase of 8.4.

Detroit gives up 23.6 shots a game, Pittsburgh takes 32.3. Theoretical increase of 8.7.

I know they’re just numbers, and theory is just that. This doesn’t take into account things like team defense (which most pundits say favors Detroit).

Still, I don’t see how Lyle can categorically state that Osgood’s workload will increase any more than Fleury’s, or that Fleury could adjust more quickly. Who’s the experienced goalie here?

Posted by shep from california on 05/21/08 at 01:46 PM ET

The Wings outshot the overmatched Nashville Predators 244-141…

In sweeping the Colorado Avalanche the Red Wings outshot the injury-riddled Avs 151-85.

Nitpick alert:

According to espn.com, it was 242-144 against Nashville (pretty close), and 151-105 against Colorado (not even close).

Posted by shep on 05/21/08 at 02:11 PM ET

Excellent analysis, shep. Another thing that struck me as odd is the notion that it’s somehow good that Fleury typically faces more shots than Osgood. Call me crazy, but I’d say that implies he has a weaker defensive team in front of him. Not sure how that translates to an edge for Pittsburgh.

Posted by YzermanZetterberg on 05/21/08 at 02:11 PM ET

You can almost always anticipate when a goal is going to be scored against the Wings.  The team gets possession deep and establishes control of the puck, and the Wings can’t break the stranglehold on the puck and sooner of later it ends up in back of the net.

No offense, RWBill, but isn’t that true of virtually any team? Sustained offensive pressure often leads to goals. It’s not a weakness attributable only to the Red Wings.

Posted by YzermanZetterberg on 05/21/08 at 02:16 PM ET

Disagree Bill. Don’t think the Pens size advantage is even notable. The Wings always play with a size disadvantage. That isn’t a concern at this point. Both teams have ability and toughness. Period.

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 05/21/08 at 02:21 PM ET

The shot total for the Avs series was a mistake on my part which I missed on the re-write. I’ll try to get that fixed. Still doesn’t detract from the fact the Wings still had their way with an injury-and-flu ravaged Avalanche team.

Also, I’m implying that Osgood will have to handle more shots than he’s faced previously in this series. Fleury in his 14 games has faced 388, Osgood 288 in his 12 games.

Osgood has played well and has benefited from a strong d, but I’m suggesting that both are used to a certain number of shots per game and one of the issues for me in this series is if Ozzy can successfully adjust to potentially facing more, as Fleury is used to facing a higher number.

I’m not knocking Osgood’s experience or ability, merely making a suggestion. I’m hoping both goalies play well and make this a memorable series, regardless of who eventually wins. 

Cheers.

Posted by Lyle Richardson from Charlottetown, PEI on 05/21/08 at 02:48 PM ET