Maybe if there were valid markets without teams, Canada could get another one?

Hamilton isn’t a valid market.

It’s hardly the US’s fault that they have way more large cities and a much, much larger population as a market.  Grow a couple more cities into valid markets sizes/centers and then they’ll probably get teams.

Hamilton is comparable in population size in its metro area to Winnipeg or Quebec City—and we know how well things turned out for those areas.  FAILED.

Hamilton is comparable to Omaha, NE or Birmingham, AL in urban area pop.  Phoenix, for example, has a population of over 2 million MORE to draw from than Hamilton does (and that’s not even counting any existing Hamilton-ites that won’t give up their Leafs allegiance either).

Give it up already.  Everyone go take a good long look at Wikipedia’s list of Canadian urban centers by population size (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_100_largest_urban_areas_in_Canada_by_population), and tell me which of those markets without a team deserve an NHL team.

Now compare it to the US list of urban areas by population:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_urban_areas

The Canadian markets aren’t even close.  There are 55 US cities that are larger markets by population than Hamilton, ON.

Give.  It.  Up.

Posted by Primis on 10/01/09 at 07:13 AM ET

Yeah, but how many of those 55 US cities either already have a club, or have so few hockey fans that they couldn’t work? A good market for an NHL club is based on how the community can and will support hockey, not simply on how large the community is. What percentage of people in Hamilton love NHL hockey? What percentage of people in Phoenix do? What percentage of people in Hamilton enjoy the occasional game? And Phoenix? These are the numbers we need, and unfortunately, nobody’s going to be able to accurately gather that data. But, and excuse my bias, I think it’s pretty safe to say there are both more die hard hockey fans as well as casual hockey fans in Hamilton than there are in Phoenix.

And it bothers me that this guy takes shots at Baum. Baum did the right thing. He had to take his time to make this decision because he knows that this decision will be scrutinized, not just by the entire Canadian media and parts of the U.S. media, but likely by different (and higher) U.S. courts. And his decision was correct—I would’ve loved him to award the team to Balsillie and leave egg on Little Gary’s face, but his explanation makes perfect sense. Balsillie’s offer is insufficient for all interested parties, and the NHL’s offer is equally insufficient. Balsillie doesn’t (supposedly) satisfy the existing NHL owners, and the NHL doesn’t appropriately compensate Moyes and The Great One.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 10/01/09 at 07:36 AM ET

Yeah, but how many of those 55 US cities either already have a club, or have so few hockey fans that they couldn’t work? A good market for an NHL club is based on how the community can and will support hockey, not simply on how large the community is. What percentage of people in Hamilton love NHL hockey?

And what percentage of THAT are then going to just change their allegiance?

People seem to just blindly assume 100% would switch to rooting for a Hamilton team.  They wouldn’t.  Would it be more like 75%?  70%?

I don’t think 70% of Hamilton’s market is enough to support an NHL team.

What percentage of people in Phoenix do? What percentage of people in Hamilton enjoy the occasional game? And Phoenix? T

If you want stats, speculation, and hypotheticals… What percentage of PHX fans would enjoy the team and partake if the team wasn’t a MISERABLE FAILURE on the ice?  Shouldn’t PHX be given a chance to have a decent team once and see what the reaction is?  I bet everyone would be a little surprised about how PHX would support NHL hockey—if they ever got to see NHL-level hockey it from their team.

Posted by Primis on 10/01/09 at 08:03 AM ET

And what percentage of THAT are then going to just change their allegiance?

I don’t think 70% of Hamilton’s market is enough to support an NHL team.

a)  I’m wondering where you’re from.  Because here in Toronto, people aren’t just Leafs fans, they’re HOCKEY fans.  Yeah, you’ve got your hardcore Leafs fans.

b) What do you think Hamilton’s market is?  Because Hamilton’s market is the exact same market as Toronto’s, and since it is next to impossible to get Leafs tickets, you can bet your ass that people would be willing to go see hockey in Hamilton. 

The hockey market that could feasibly support a Hamilton goes from London in the West, Toronto in the East, as far north as Barrie and south as the Niagara region.  People in Toronto who can’t get Leafs tickets will travel to Ottawa to watch games.  That’s about a four hour drive, you don’t think people from Toronto will travel 45 minutes to an hour in order to see a game?

What percentage of PHX fans would enjoy the team and partake if the team wasn’t a MISERABLE FAILURE on the ice?

How about we compare that to the percentage of Hamilton’s market that would go see a game SIMPLY because it’s HOCKEY, no matter how good or bad they are?

Posted by Garth on 10/01/09 at 09:30 AM ET

I trust Damien realizes that a very large portion of the reason Hamilton isn’t getting a hockey team is because his local Maple Leafs are the most powerful team in the league and they don’t want any part of allowing another team into their still under-served market.

I have no doubt that Hamilton will support a team better than Phoenix does.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 10/01/09 at 09:48 AM ET

How about we compare that to the percentage of Hamilton’s market that would go see a game SIMPLY because it’s HOCKEY, no matter how good or bad they are?

For God’s sake, we already know that.

The AHL Bulldogs drew an average of about 4,600 this year, and averaged *under* 2,800 for their 3 home playoff games.  For hockey only a step below the NHL.  Playing in the exact same arena Ballsille wanted to use.

Yeah, what a *real* ripe market.  *rolleyes*

Give me a break.

Posted by Primis on 10/01/09 at 10:05 AM ET

I think those urban area charts are completely misleading..

Raleigh/Durham for example should be close to 1M when you add up all cities over 10k within 30 miles of the RBC center…

cary   129,545
raleigh   392,552
durham   223,284
apex   33,075
chapel hilll   52,542
garner   27,138
clayton   15,841
holly springs   20,870
wake forest   27,068

TOTAL   921,915

if all small towns were counted, it would break 1M. Im sure the same analysis could be done for the Canadian cities..

Posted by canesice on 10/01/09 at 10:36 AM ET

From Wikipedia:

The Golden Horseshoe is a densely populated and industrialized region (or urban agglomeration) centred around the western end of Lake Ontario in Southern Ontario, Canada, with outer boundaries stretching south to Lake Erie and north to Georgian Bay. Most of it is also part of the Quebec City – Windsor Corridor. With a population of 8.1 million people, it makes up slightly over a quarter (25.6%) of the population of Canada and contains approximately 75% of Ontario’s population, making it one of the largest population concentrations in North America. Although it is a geographically named sub-region of Southern Ontario, the Greater Golden Horseshoe is more frequently used today to describe the metropolitan regions that stretch across the area in totality.

Primis, many responded with points I was going to make, so here is some specific info about that region (part of the Golden Horseshoe).  If any populated area could support (another) hockey club it is Hamilton.  During testimony in this case even the NHL conceded a team in Hamilton would make (not lose) money.

And I know many people here in T.O. who would go to Hamilton to watch hockey as finding Leafs tickets is near impossible without paying a HUGE premium to scalpers on top of the already very expensive face value for tickets.

I even know several people who put a deposit on season tickets when Balsillie was trying to buy Nashville.  IMHO, Hamilton and Quebec City are the two only viable Canadian locations for another hockey club.

Posted by VooX from Behind the Bar in the Hasek Club Car on 10/01/09 at 11:46 AM ET

The AHL Bulldogs drew an average of about 4,600 this year, and averaged *under* 2,800 for their 3 home playoff games.  For hockey only a step below the NHL.  Playing in the exact same arena Ballsille wanted to use.

Really?  Do you really want to go there??

Well then, I guess the Leafs have to move out of Toronto since the Marlies averaged 900 fewer tickets per game than Hamilton and managed to sell 50 tickets per game more than Hamilton in the playoffs.

Honestly, you’re really going to try to compare the NHL to the AHL?

Sorry, I guess it’s my fault.  I assumed we were talking about NHL hockey, not AHL hockey.  My bad!

Yeah, what a *real* ripe market.  *rolleyes*

Yeah, you must be right.  I mean, when Balsillie tried to buy the Predators in 07 and started taking season ticket deposits, he only collected 7000+ in the FIRST DAY (and over 12,000 in the first five days, plus 80 luxury boxes).  Notice that the 7000 is more than the average audience for a regular season game and a playoff game for the Bulldogs COMBINED.  What a shitty market indeed.  No potential there AT ALL.

Good call, Primis.  Please, continue to compare AHL attendance to NHL potential because it is such an accurate and infallible comparison.

Posted by Garth on 10/01/09 at 12:00 PM ET

Oh the crying and wailing from the north land…

Posted by Tero from Tacoma on 10/01/09 at 09:56 PM ET

Thanks for adding something constructive.  AND accurate.

Posted by Garth on 10/02/09 at 06:55 AM ET