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Chicago Overpaid On Duncan Keith Contract
by Paul on 12/06/09 at 08:41 AM ET
Comments (15)
from Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe,
Keith, 26, will earn an average of $7.913 million over the first four years, $7.55 million for the next two years, $5.5 million for another two, $4 million for two more, and then slightly more than $2 million for the final three. Total: 13 years/$72 million, for a cap hit of $5.54 million. If you’re still holding on to your calculator, it exceeds the 12-year/$62.8 million deal, in both gross dollars and cap hit, that career marksman Marian Hossa pocketed with the Hawks in July.
OK, it’s a good bet that neither Keith nor Hossa will reach full term on their deals. If Keith retires after 10 years, he’ll have earned just under $66 million. They’ve still paid out huge money for a guy who, though well-conditioned and both a solid citizen and performer, is by no means considered an elite NHL defenseman. OK, they like him, and most teams have a guy like that - someone hauling in A-list money for what most of the world perceives as something less than A-list talent.
But Keith, even if out in the free agent market July 1, 2010, would not have commanded a $72 million commitment from anyone.
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Filed in: NHL Teams, Chicago Blackhawks | KK Hockey | Permalink
Tags: Duncan+Keith,
Comments
I wouldn’t call Keith top 5, but I agree with DME overall… someone would’ve definitely offered him something like 6 years for $35 million. This would happen cap or not because whenever a D-man with any moderate level of quality becomes available in the free agent market, people overpay (see Chicago w/ Campbell).
Now, let’s be fair, Keith is not just moderate, he is very very good. But I do agree with DuPont in the sense that I think Keith is probably a rung behind the Pronger/Lidstrom/Neidermayer/Chara/Weber elite level. But hey, he’s right behind, and the way players seem to get better in their early 30’s, he could well mature into that player.
Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 12/06/09 at 10:03 AM ET
I tend to agree about the overpayment. Given that it’s a thirteen year contract the actual cap hit isn’t particularly modest nor a grandiose discount. It may look good compared to Brian Campbell’s contract, superficially, but what contract doesn’t?
Had it been an average of $4.5-5 million a year then there would be an argument for sensible and cap friendly contract. Now it’s just so-so.
Posted by Moq from Denmark on 12/06/09 at 11:21 AM ET
He’s a figure skater playing hockey. Super soft. Not impressed with him.
Posted by cs6687 on 12/06/09 at 11:53 AM ET
Now, let’s be fair, Keith is not just moderate, he is very very good. But I do agree with DuPont in the sense that I think Keith is probably a rung behind the Pronger/Lidstrom/Neidermayer/Chara/Weber elite level.
I think Keith is right there with them. Weber is a bit overrated due to his quarter of a season last year and Chara has gotten off to a terribly slow start.
I think Keith would win the Norris if the voting ended today.
Posted by Heaton on 12/06/09 at 12:08 PM ET
I think Keith is probably a rung behind the Pronger/Lidstrom/Neidermayer/Chara/Weber elite level.
I don’t know what all of them are making salary-wise, but as far as cap hits, it seems like Keith is being paid a rung behind these guys too. I know that cap hit and actual salary are two way different things, but I think he’s right about where he should be getting paid salary cap wise.
Actual dollars wise? Who cares. He’s their best defenseman and he’s getting paid like it. I’m sure they’d love to switch the cap numbers for Keith and Campbell if they could over the short run. It’s not like Chicago as a franchise is losing money on this deal.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 12/06/09 at 12:36 PM ET
I think Keith would win the Norris if the voting ended today.
Posted by Heaton on 12/06/09 at 12:08 PM ET
Not Mike Green?
//runs away laughing
Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 12/06/09 at 12:51 PM ET
I haven’t seen him alot, but I’ve read and heard all good things about him. So I was anticiapting a good game from him last night against the Pens. I wasn’t impressed as much as I thought I was going to be. In fact , the one play that stands out that he was invovled in (besides the cheapshot) was when he bailed on a forecheck and it turned into a good chance for the Pens.
I know it’s only one game, so I’ll wait until I see more,especially come playoff time.
Posted by Lindas1st from New England on 12/06/09 at 01:15 PM ET
i honestly do not think he is worth it. If it was like a 4-4.5 cap hit or something over the years, then maybe i could pocket it. 5.5 over 13 years, does not sound like a home town discount or any type of cap relief at all to me. Heck, maybe if it was 5.5 over 6 years, it would be consider a “bit” of a deal, but over 13 years, I seriously don’t know what chicago is thinking.
Posted by Luongo-is-my-hero on 12/06/09 at 02:39 PM ET
but over 13 years, I seriously don’t know what chicago is thinking.
They’re probably thinking like several other teams, that the CBA will not remain what it is now. At that point all contracts will either be tossed entirely, or the way they hit the cap (if it still remains) will be different. At the very least, if a new CBA goes into effect, there will be ways to restructure/buy out current deals.
Posted by Nate A from Detroit-ish on 12/06/09 at 03:34 PM ET
Not worth it. If you continue to sign guys to big contracts you’ll be playing with AHLers. This means that Sharp is gone and he’s the guy they should keep.
Posted by stoneman from vegas on 12/06/09 at 07:50 PM ET
Now, let’s be fair, Keith is not just moderate, he is very very good.
No Nathan he’s really not. He’s not very, very good. He’s just good. In Chicago nowadays Good is almost akin to Very Very Good because they’ve been so bad for so long. If Keith were in, say, Atlanta though or Carolina, do you really think any of us were ever hear how great he was? He’s a bit the product of a good ol’ fashioned Chicago Hype.
Keith is not even in the same zip code though as Lidstrom, Chara, etc… don’t see any reason why he should get that kind of money. He hasn’t earned it.
Posted by Primis on 12/07/09 at 08:02 AM ET
“I don’t know how you could keep Chicago’s Duncan Keith off the Canadian Olympic team. He’s a leading Norris Trophy candidate in my book.” - Kevin Allen, USA Today, via his twitter account.
Posted by gauguin on 12/07/09 at 03:08 PM ET
With all due respect, Primus, you couldn’t be more wrong. All he does is play 25 minutes a night against the top offensive talent in the league. Yes, he plays against the opponents best lines every night, and is +63 over the last two years doing so. And you can’t tell me that number is the product of playing on a great team, because Chicago didn’t even make the playoffs the year before last and he was +30.
To bad you can’t get past your anti-Chicago bias on this one.
Posted by gauguin on 12/07/09 at 09:31 PM ET
this guys an idiot. Keith will win the norris this year
Posted by bobby big wheels on 04/17/10 at 11:30 AM ET
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this writer is a douche. Keith is top 5 in defensive acumen. great skater, great positionally, great stick, is putting up points. you pay big bucks for those attributes. hes also JUST entering his prime on a dominant team.
he would have been offered 6-7 million a year from teams EASILY. the length is an issue but not the overall yearly value.
Posted by Death Metal Nightmare from MKE on 12/06/09 at 09:01 AM ET