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Fantasy Hockey, Anyone?
by Hippy Dave on 09/21/09 at 09:00 AM ET
Comments (6)
This will be the 8th year of my commissionership in a Yahoo fantasy league, and like most years, the end of the labor day weekend marks the always unexpected beginning to a phrenetic 3-week period of feverish research to get ready for the draft before the beginning of the season. One thing I see as missing in most online blogs is some good in-depth fantasy hockey analysis and subjective commentary. I’m sort of somewhere between a math geek, a schizophrenic, and a compulsive gambler when it comes to fantasy hockey, and I think I could have something real to contribute to the topic.
Paul’s been kind enough to give me a shot at constructing a forum on Kukla’s Korner about fantasy hock, and I hope to entertain, inform, and inspire some good dialogue on the art of fantasy hockey management throughout the season.
He suggested I give a bit about myself: I’m a Michigan native from the Detroit area, and have been watching Wings games since back when Yzerman, Probert, and Kocur were just becoming household names. I’ve lived all over the country and have been on the west coast for 9 years now, but most of my possessions still reference Detroit in some way.. or a brewery of some kind. There’s something beautiful about not letting go of what you love much like a pit bull. That’s sort of how I also feel about long-term strategy games like Fantasy Hockey; I play to win. I probably spend too much time doing so.
One of the greatest things about fantasy hockey is that it gives you a wider appreciation of the sport beyond simple fandom for your home team. You get a feel for how the whole of the sport moves; its subtle changes over time and the interactions between players, teammates, and coaches. You begin to see the big picture.
Now the advice I’m going to give this season is going to fall somewhere between trying to be agnostic about the format of your league, and direct and anecdotal on the format our league uses. We go head-to-head, with G-A-(+/-)-PIM-PPG-PPA-SHP-GWG-FA being the forward metrics, and SV%-GAA-W-SO being the goalie stats.
So with out further ado, here’s the first installment of my little column on fantasy hockey.
—
Holy Crow, I’m Sitting Pretty.
I’m excited folks, the first televised preseason game with the Wings vs. the Rangers was a big victory, and the voices of Ken Daniels, Mickey Redmond, and the Belle Tire guy reverberated through the living room this weekend with the Buffalo game, and lo, the fantasy season is afoot. I always forget about how right after the bliss of a good holiday weekend you get catapulted into draft strategies.
So our league is a 10-man partial keeper league that allows for three keepers year to year. I start getting ready for the year and I stumble upon this article by our boy Matt Romig, Yahoo Fantasy Sports writer who does the Big Board over there.
Turns out my three keepers for this year, before I even saw this thing, were Ryan Getzlaf, Martin Brodeur, and Mike Green. They’re ranked 6th, 7th, and 8th on that list. Holy crow, in a 10 person league, if Romig’s right, I just might crush this year. Don’t get me wrong, if I could have Datsyuk on my team with a Zetterberg and Lidstrom kicker, I’d take that any day. Way more fun to watch the games when your boys are scoring. But I don’t have that luxury. I chose to sit back and let the homers in my league pick the hometown favorites while I played with frivolous things like hard statistics and analysis of trends over the years and injury probabilities and whose linemates were whose. In fact, I haven’t had a regular Wing on my team since Z’s rookie year. Silly me. It got me the Pucking Cup in our ‘Go Puck Yourself’ League in 2008. But in my strange bizarro-world of fantasy hockey, a line with Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan trumps a Datsyuk paired with anyone the Wings have. It hurts to say that, but its true. And its also one of the reasons we nearly lost that series. There’s something to be said for chemistry and angry young men.
As for Brodeur, well, I don’t think I need to explain why he’ll be the best goalie next year. Ok, maybe I will with one word: Carolina. You can talk about your Steve Masons, your Pekka Rinnes, your Jonas Hillers, they’re great kids, they’ll kick ass this year. In fact in a deeper league I’d draft those guys in the fourth or fifth round if I were you. But don’t think Brodeur’s on the downstroke just yet. He’ll crush, like he always does. And the defensive system in Jersey is still tight. Screw a Luongo. He just got a big fat contract and don’t think the Crispy Creme truck didn’t just start their daily route to his doorstep. Just ask Mikka about that.
Mike Green - what can you say? Look at the last three years of his numbers:
2007: 70-2-10-12-(-10)-36PIM-0PPG-6PPA-68SOG-.029%
2008: 82-18-38-56-(+6)-62PIM-8PPG-15PPA-234SOG-.077%
2009: 68-31-42-73-(+24)-68PIM-18PPG-20PPA-243SOG-.128%
You don’t need a degree in calculus to realize the insane trend this monster is on. The jump from ‘07 to ‘08 is crazy enough. He missed 14 more games than the prior season and still put 73 points on the damn board, mostly powerplay time. It’ll top out this year, bet on it. I don’t often sell the idea of drafting a defenseman in the second or third round of a draft but with him, you may want to consider it. Another defenseman for me this year: Sheldon Souray. Finally he’s healthy, and oh, those PIMs are tasty. Sure he was a -28 3 years ago in Montreal, now he’s finally in the plus column in Edmonton. That year he also had nearly 50 power play points. You watch out, he’ll get his power play touch back this year. If he can stay healthy.
And here’s your sleeper pick for ‘09. Don’t worry, you needn’t look any further. I’ve got it, it’ll be all right. Loui Eriksson of the Dallas Stars. He hasn’t seen any real time on the power play yet, but the kid scored 63 points in 82 games last year, up from 31 in 69 the year before. For that matter, he scored 36 goals. Hossa scored 40. This kid scored 36 at 24 years old and you don’t hear a peep about him. Draft him in the 7-10th round and you won’t be disappointed.
But that’s the low hanging fruit. Let’s drill into the harder to find stuff next.
More to come on the draft soon. In the meantime, here are a few resources you can tap to prepare for your season:
- The Rotowire Yahoo Fantasy Draft Kit
- The Hockey News’ “The Score” Sports Forecaster
- They write a hell of a magazine, too.
- CBS Sports Fantasy Draft Kit and web site.
- Fantasy Hockey Realm Draft Kit
- Pro Fantasy NHL Draft Kit
-Dave
Filed in: Fantasy Hockey and Gaming | KK Hockey | Permalink
Comments
nice, dave. still waiting for someone to drop outta yer league so i can join in 
Posted by ColdWar on 09/21/09 at 10:40 AM ET
Thanks guys, I’m excited to be a small part of the growing KK family. It’s an elite bunch.
Sorry ColdWar, it looks like our league is full this season, I tried to make a spot for you but it just didn’t work out. I’ll let you know if things change in the next week, for sure.
Posted by Hippy Dave from Portland by way of Detroit on 09/21/09 at 12:51 PM ET
Where can I find the top PP units for each team?
Posted by dudicus on 09/22/09 at 10:40 AM ET
That’s not a bad question, dudicus. I’m sure that this early on in the preseason that the answer to that is fluid. Coaches are still figuring that one out. I could perhaps do a post in the near future that breaks down the probable power top power play units, but to some degree I would be proven wrong with time.
In the meantime, my favorite resource for depth charts has been CBS. They’re not always correct, but it’s a good starting point:
http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/depth-charts
Posted by Hippy Dave from Portland by way of Detroit on 09/22/09 at 12:12 PM ET
Hey Dave ... Thanks for thinking of me.
Since I can’t get into a league that I am comfortable in (thanks, anyway TPSH) I decided to start my own. If you know of anyone ...
I’m looking for some people to join in my league on ESPN. It’s a Keeper League, Head to Head, 22 weeks with 4 weeks of playoff. It’s free, and user friendly. I wanna live draft, but haven’t set a date. 10 teams, 7 slots are open. Keepers are starting this year ... Clean Slate to continue into next year.
Lemme know if yer interested!
Posted by ColdWar on 09/23/09 at 02:25 PM ET
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Hey there Dave! Good first post on KK. Just wanted to welcome you to our team of bloggers and I look forward to your contributions during the season.
Posted by Patrick Hoffman from Stamford, CT on 09/21/09 at 09:32 AM ET