Kukla's Korner Hockey
Goals For Vs. Goals Against
by Paul on 08/17/07 at 09:17 AM ET
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from On the Forecheck,
The basic idea was that by looking at the ratio between each team’s Goals For and Goals Against totals, you get a good idea of where their actual Winning Percentage will end up. The presumption there is that a team’s overall ability to score and prevent goals is more constant than the bounces and breaks that can decide individual game results, and over the course of 82 games the “luck” will even out to a large extent.
This summer, I thought I’d revisit that analysis, to answer a few questions.
1. Did I just get lucky, or is PythagenPuck actually a better indicator than actual Winning Percentage of where teams stand during the early part of the season?
2. At what point does it make sense to do this kind of analysis? After 10 games, 20, 30…?
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