My, what a Hobson’s choice.

Let’s run the numbers…

Given a modestly growing cap this year (say 2 mil) and enough cap room if we were to ditch Lils, Lebda, Samuellsson, Malts (yeah, I said it), that frees up nearly 6 million.

Looks like we stand to spend about another 4 million on Franzen, another 5 on Z (at least), and I think Hossa will stick to Lidstrom’s “I must make as much as you do” clause.  So that means we need to free up another 3-4 million.  So, looks like we’re trading Hudler (1 million), oh waitaminit Conklin needs his contract re-upped too.

Yeah we’re screwed.

Posted by Hippy Dave from Portland by way of Detroit on 11/16/08 at 03:00 PM ET

It’s actually worse than that if you really crunch the numbers.

I posted this third-grade math analysis over at George’s blog:

Letting all the potential UFA and RFAs walk (excepting Z, Hoss, and Mule, this is Sammy, Hudler, Mac, Chelios, Conklin and Kopecky) leaves the team with six forwards and seven D under contract for 2009-2010, plus Ozzie, for a cap hit of around $ 42.5 million. Assuming, optimistically, that the cap rises by 5 million- which is, in my opinion, extremely unlikely- the Wings would have around 19 million to sign Z, Hoss, and Mule, as well as three more forwards. With Z asking for 7-8 million per, there is no way this happens, unless Mule agrees to take something ridiculous like 4 million per.

Even if you jettison “core” guys like Flip, Draper, Lilja, and Lebda, you don’t save that much- these four together would take less than seven million off the payroll, leaving you with 26 million under the cap. Now we’re in territory where signing Z for 7-8 million, Hossa for 7-8 million, and Franzen for a bit less, let’s say 5.5 million (which is questionable in itself- he’s worth more at fair market value), for a total of 19.5-21.5 million, or between 4.5 and 6.5 million under the cap. With this money, in addition to signing the “big three,” you’d have to fill five forward spots and at least two D spots, plus a back-up goaltender. With, at the most, 6.5 million.  Ditching Malts would kick this up to nearly 7.5 million, but would also leave another empty space on the roster.  Throw Meech in there, too, and you’re up to around 8 million to fill six forward and three D slots, and a back-up goalie.

As much as I’d love to see the Wings hand onto Z, Mule, and Hossa, I have a hard time seeing Holland jettison guys like Flip, Draper, Malts, Meech, etc., for the opportunity to keep both Mule and Hossa. Management has always shied away from rapid roster turnover, and losing that many pieces at once- not that I think it’s a bad idea, I just don’t see Holland doing it.

I also assumed here the cap would rise by 5 million. Personally, if it rises at all, I’d say 2-3 million is the much more realistic figure. With the economy in the tank and the Canadian dollar falling against the American dollar, the salad days of last season are likely gone. Obviously we’ll have a better picture of where this will go later in the season.

Plus, assuming Z signs in the next few months, I still see teams willing to throw massive contracts at both Hossa and Mule. Hossa was fetching up to 10 million/yr last summer, and after scoring 50 goals this yr his value won’t go down. I could see some of the more “desperate” teams- say, LA (and I have no reason to pick them, they just have a lot of cap space and little recent success)- throw up to 8 million at Mule, who is also on pace for a 45-goal season or something like that. It would not be a shock to see one or, god forbid, both of these guys go for the big money the Wings don’t have the cap space to offer… It’s a business, after all.

I think if there’s any way this happens, it’s going to be more painful than folks realize. Basically, to make this happen the team would also have to ditch at least one and maybe two “untouchable” forwards or D-men. Stuart and Cleary have NTCs, I believe, so that leaves Homer, Kronwall, and Raffi- and Ozzie, too- as potential trade bait. Read that again, let it sink in- is there any way in hell Holland trades one of these guys? I don’t think so, but financially it would almost have to happen to clear cap space, even if the cap rises substantially, which it probably won’t… Guys like Helm, Ericsson, Howard and Leino may come cheap, but they won’t come THAT cheap…

So I would be truly impressed if Kenny Boy figured a way to pull this off, because the contracts on the books now and the cap figure make it well-nigh impossible.

That said, if you do the Wings extreme makeover here, your team looks like this:

Dats- 6.7
Z- 7.5
Hossa- 7.5
Mule- 5
Homer - 2.25
Cleary - 2.5
Malts- 950k
Leino- 1 (assuming slight raise over 850k this yr)
Abbadabbadoo- 850k
Helm- 598k
Two or three more forwards - 2-3 mil

= 36.85-37.85

Nick- 7.45
Raffi - 6
Stuart - 3.75
Kronner - 3
Ericsson - 900k
Meech - 485k
One more D-man- 500-750k

= 22.34

Ozzie- 1.4
howie boy- 600k

= 2

36.85 + 22.34 + 2 = 61.19

So, if the cap rises 5 million, this is possible.  The question then becomes, is keeping Marian Hossa worth giving up, at least:

Flip
Draper
Sammy
Hudler
Kopecky
Mac
Lilja
Lebda
Conklin

Tough call for sure. Should be an interesting off-season…

Posted by mudshark from Divetown, Colorado on 11/16/08 at 03:49 PM ET

The Wings won a Cup last year with Franzen, and without Hossa.

Hossa has impressed me beyond words but, this is quite a simple choice.

Franzen.  Franzen has done stuff in the playoffs Hossa has onyl dreamed of, and scores more big goals (even if many of them are ugly).

That said, I’ll take both if at all possible, thanks.  Hossa is a beast.

Posted by Primis on 11/16/08 at 07:03 PM ET

Great post mudshark, that really lays bare where we’re at.

I guess we’ll just have to sit back an enjoy the season we’ve got.

In the meantime, I really can’t decide which one I like more.  I can only hope it’ll play itself out over the course of the season.  The cold calculating part of me likes Hossa, but the Wings patriot in me loves our draft-pick.  No matter what, we can’t eviscerate the team because of a strange opportunity.  If how we’ve acted with past rental stars is any indication, Hossa will not be a wing next year.

In the meantime, I’ll sit back, grab a beer, and watch the pucks fly.

-Dave

Posted by Hippy Dave from Portland by way of Detroit on 11/17/08 at 02:50 AM ET

Any chance that Holland pulls a rabbit out of his ass and convinces both Z and Hoss to take what Datsyuk is making?  Imagine getting both at 6.7M?  Maybe we get Franzen at 4.5?  I know it’s a pipe dream, but that seems to be the only way to keep this team in tact.

Dats- 6.7
Z- 6.7
Hossa- 6.7
Mule- 4.5
Homer - 2.25
Cleary - 2.8
Fil - 3
Draper - 1.58
Malts- 833k
Leino- 1 (assuming slight raise over 850k this yr)—> agreed.
Abbadabbadoo- 850k
Helm- 598k

= 37.5M

Nick- 7.45
Raffi - 6
Stuart - 3.75
Kronner - 3
Ericsson - 900k
Meech - 485k
One more D-man- 500-750k —> Cheli?

= 22.34

Ozzie- 1.4
howie boy- 700k

= 2.1

37.5 + 22.34 + 2.1 = 61.95

We could keep the team in tact with a nice bump to the cap.  But if the cap only goes up to say $58M, we’d have to dump $4M in salary.  Don’t know how we’d be able to do that.

This all assuming of course we can move Lilja and Lebs for draft picks.

Posted by DetCapC19 from Vancouver, BC on 11/17/08 at 06:33 PM ET