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Spend To Win
by Paul on 12/13/09 at 11:20 PM ET
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from David Biderman of the Wall Street Journal,
Many sports fans assume baseball is the game that’s most driven by owners’ pocketbooks. For proof, they could point to the 2009 playoffs, where the final four teams were all near the top of the league in payroll. But the sport where spending money most closely equates to winning games is played on ice, not grass and dirt.
From 2000 to 2008, NHL teams’ winning percentage has a 0.49 correlation to their payroll (where 1 represents a direct correlation and 0 represents no correlation at all). This number doesn’t suggest an airtight relationship, but it’s a stronger correlation than the three other major sports leagues. Major League Baseball has a 0.43 correlation, and the NFL is at a nearly meaningless 0.15, according to a new study by Dave Berri, a professor of economics at Southern Utah University.
Filed in: NHL Teams, NHL Talk | KK Hockey | Permalink
Comments
AARGH!!!
All the numbers in the world mean exactly nothing if they do not have an associated level of statistical significance with them. It is entirely possible to have a “weak” correlation in terms of explanatory power (close to zero) but have it be very “strong” in terms of significance of correlation, and vice versa.
Seriously, anyone who misuses statistics so blatantly and cavalierly should be beaten to insensibility with pool noodles. It’s hard enough to understand statistics when properly used - when someone just tosses out numbers with no explanation (and I’ll bet they didn’t even test for normality before they did the correlation, the ignoramuses) it makes it that much harder and more confusing.
Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 12/14/09 at 04:39 AM ET
This is what the WSJ does. They have little integrity since Rupert Murdoch got the keys to the front door. The cap would have only been available for 05,06,07 and 08. 05 had no cup, so that’s easy. The first champs under the cap were the hurricanes, then the ducks, then the wings.
But the article is about the half of the league that makes the post-season, which is a pretty low bar to set. The NFL has very few teams make the post-season, so of course the’ll have a low percentage.
This is just stupid and meaningless.
Posted by redxblack from Akron Ohio on 12/14/09 at 11:47 AM ET
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The numbers make sense when you scan the standings. In hockey, the Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins have consistently made the playoffs in recent years, and they’re the teams willing to use the league’s salary cap to its full extent
One of these teams is not like the other ones, one of these teams doesn’t belong.
Interesting article, but no supporting data to back up the claims. I guess Toronto & Montreal & Colorado have all been at or near the salary cap floor , and in the pre cap era the Blueshirts and their payroll ( most years higher than Detroit ) only managed to win 1 Cup , and that has now been 15 years ago.
Also I’m pretty sure that Tampa & Carolina were way down the payroll list when they won, as were the runners up Calgary & Edmonton.
High Payroll ≠ Stanley Cup Champs
Posted by Down River Dan on 12/14/09 at 01:45 AM ET