Hank will sign for 7.45 or less.  And if he doesnt, see ya later.  The wings can find someone else willing to take a pay cut to play on their team.

However, I think Hank a reasonable down to earth person who cares more about playing on a winning team than making an extra million and playing on a loser.

Posted by DrW from Detroit on 07/26/08 at 09:42 AM ET

If there’s one person who we could plausibly pay more than Nick, it’s Hank.  I think Nick and the rest of the Wings will completely understand.  He is the closest thing we’ll have to Stevie Y for the next ten years.

And to the above poster:  Pass whatever you’re smoking.  You’ll find a ton of guys who’d make less than Hank to play here, true.  But you wont be finding anybody who comes anywhere near his talent level offensively and defensively.  You’re talking about a top 3 forward.

It’s Hank’s right to demand as much money as possible, and he deserves it.  I think he’s been in the Redwing culture long enough that he’ll probably succumb to a modest pay cut.  And there plenty of “winning” teams out there that could offer him more, chachi.

Posted by Huss from Sarasota, FL on 07/26/08 at 10:17 AM ET

I suggest Howson offer him $90 million over 7 years.  That would make Nash a happy man too.

Posted by Hasher on 07/26/08 at 10:19 AM ET

Zetterberg in Toronto would make Leafsfans foget about Sundin in a hurry.
Ofer him the max, $11m for 8 years.

Posted by leafman on 07/26/08 at 10:24 AM ET

He could get $10 million easily, and would be worth it.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see his cap hit more than Lidstrom’s though, because Lidstrom has made more per year when he was younger, and as scary as it is, he won’t play forever, so that would likely make Zetterberg the highest paid Wing after Nick retires.

Maybe $7.5 million annually, give or take $500,000 or so, for a six-year contract?  That’s just a wild guess for Detroit - I agree that another team would likely offer him much more if they have the cap space.  He’s fortunate in that he won’t have to worry about money and can choose where to play based on what he likes the most about the team.

Hank will sign for 7.45 or less.  And if he doesnt, see ya later.  The wings can find someone else willing to take a pay cut to play on their team.

And watch him torch the Wings repeatedly once he signs with San Jose, for example?  That would be an act of monumental stupidity to be inflexible in negotiations with an important player.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 07/26/08 at 10:38 AM ET

I think that Holland may give Z a bit more, per Nick’s blessing, but I don’t see him signing anything more than a Sidney Crosby-style $8.5 million contract.  His agent is going to ask for the cap max, of course, being an agent, but I don’t think that Z’s going to attempt to upset the Wings’ salary cap cart. 

If I were to make an educated guess, I’d say he’d take a contract a little closer to $8 million than $7 million, and he’ll do so over the course of a 7-year deal.  Hank’s been very outspoken when the Swedish newspapers prod and jab him about whether he’s “underpaid” or would want to renegotiate his deal if he could, saying that he’s OK with the fact that he signed for the money he signed, and that one of his goals is to be a Red Wing for his entire career.

Posted by George James Malik from South Lyon, MI on 07/26/08 at 10:47 AM ET

There have been suggestions in Detroit that he’ll be the next captain whenever Lidstrom hangs ‘em up, so I think a multi-year deal like Datsyuk signed, for about $7.5 million or so per season - Nick’s pay rate - sounds about right.

And he’ll still be a bargain, just not the obscene bargain he is at like the $2.6 million he’s currently making.

Posted by Dave on 07/26/08 at 12:15 PM ET

I’d be surprised to see Hank hold out for salary in the 8 million range.  More than likely, he signs for 7-7.5 and gets term, i.e., seven or eight years (if not more).  Hopefully Kenny Boy locks up Mule for 4-4.5 for three or four, and Hossa in the neighborhood of 7 per.

In terms of locking down Hossa past this year, it’ll be interesting to watch what happens with the second-tier guys over the next two seasons.  Sounds like Nick might sign another deal after his current contract expires, and he’d probably take a minor pay cut if it meant keeping key guys in the Winged Wheel.  Hard to believe guys like Cheli, Mac and Downey won’t be gone after this year.  Maltby is under contract till 2010, I believe, but with guys like Kpoecky, Abbadabbado, Helm, etc., chomping at the bit, will KB buy out Malts to hold on to Hossa?  Does keeping Hossa leave Hudler expendable?  What about the glut of young d-men over the next year or two?  Quincey’s already looking like a goner, but what to do about guys like Kindl, Smith, Pyett, etc., in two/three years?  Goodbye Lebda and Lilja?  Is Ozzie playing his last contract for the Wings?  Homer? 

Re-signing Hossa is likely to force Holland’s hand on some of these guys- and even then locking down Hossa will be tough… but could just be worth the sacrifice for the following line-up in 2010-11:

Pav-Hank-Mule
Hossa-Flip-Cleary
Drapes-Sammy-Helm
Abbadabba-Koppy-(Leino?  McGrath?  Emmerton?  Mursak?)

Nick-Raffi
Kronner-Stuart
Ericsson-Meech

Larsson/Howard/McConnell

I’d be fairly comfortable with that kind of line-up three years down the road, but it would be a completely different looking team…

Posted by mudshark from Divetown, Colorado on 07/26/08 at 12:16 PM ET

is there really any question that he wont sign with detroit?  Theyll sign him for just under lidstroms sum.  Class act all around.

Posted by ce on 07/26/08 at 12:18 PM ET

It’s nice to think that Lidstrom should earn the most, but that will have to change at some point. He will not be the undeniable force he is now for all eternity. At some point, it will not make sense to have him as the highest paid player. This season, it does make sense, but it won’t always.

What if Zetterberg re-signs at season’s end, when Hossa’s gone to greener pastures, for $7.25 million for many years. Then if Lidstrom retires, will Zetterberg be the new highest player? Eventually, you could find yourself in a world where either you keep pushing players down and there’s too much of a Borg-like colletive/suppression of the individual atmosphere, or else you just get stuck in other ways.

Posted by SENShobo from Waterloo, ON on 07/26/08 at 12:20 PM ET

Considering Hank is the supposed heir apparent to the Captain throne I think Holland’s new bar with the new cap will be set with Zetterberg. 

I can’t see of any circumstance where Holland just walks away from Zetterberg and I can’t see of any circumstance where Hank prices himself out and puts himself above the team.

Posted by Heaton on 07/26/08 at 12:38 PM ET

Zetterberg starts at $9 mil and thinks about how much he’s willing to shave off from that, which won’t be more than $1 mil. I’m guessing he’ll want something in the Crosby range, maybe a little less, maybe a little more. I have to note that an MVP caliber center who signs for the exact Crosby contract is already giving a discount; it’s about $1.3 mil less (annually) than both Lecavalier and, if he signs, Sundin. I put Zetterberg’s contract in the $8 to $9 mil-per range, but certainly not under $8 mil. Lidstrom is probably retiring when his contract runs out (or shortly thereafter), so demanding that Zetterberg (specifically Zetterberg) adhere to the Lidstrom glass ceiling is probably unreasonable. Contrarily, giving Zetterberg a so-called exception to the ceiling is pretty defensible to his teammates.

However, it has to be noted that, come next June, Zetterberg will have been an $8+ million forward for three years in which he was compensated to the tune of $2.5 mil per, so it isn’t entirely out of the question that he’ll want to make up for lost time, so to speak, and ask the Red Wings for a contract that breaks the bank at $1 bazzillion.

Posted by Steve on 07/26/08 at 01:17 PM ET

Unless Zetterberg has an abysmal year, I’m sure there’d be some team willing to pay almost anything to have a former Conn Smythe winner like him (Vancouver).  But it’s pretty tough to imagine a scenario in which he leaves.  Holland will probably pay northwards of $8m if he has to, Lidstrom will probably okay a deal like that if he has to, and Zetterberg will probably accept less than $7.5m if he has to.  I still think he takes less than Lidstrom’s salary for as many years as he wants, but the only deals I’d really question are ones that take Zetterberg past age 34 or 35 (especially considering his back) or take up more than $8.5m of cap space.

Zetterberg is definitely the most replaceable of Detroit’s “Big Three”.  You can make a case that Zetterberg is more important to the Wings than Datsyuk because of a lack of finishers.  But going forward, I think that’ll be less of an issue if Filppula develops, Franzen maintains even a quarter of his season-ending pace, and Zetterberg’s leaving makes room for Hossa (or a comparable) to stay.

Six years, average of $7.4m per year.  Lock it in.

Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 07/26/08 at 01:21 PM ET

I’m feeling 4 years, 8.5 mil a year.

Posted by Hippy Dave from San Francisco by way of Detroit on 07/26/08 at 02:02 PM ET

As I’ve mentioned in another thread, my bet is between $6.5 mil to $7.25 mil per year.  Length?  I’m guessing 6 years.  The Wings will want to keep Zetterberg and Datsyuk together.

No way Holland oversteps his promise to Lidstrom.

Posted by SYF from Las Vegas, NV on 07/26/08 at 02:38 PM ET

If Zetterberg takes $6.5 million when the current market prices him between $8.5 mil and $11 mil, and thereby screws over every future player who needs a new contract during the duration of Zetterberg’s, the NHLPA will have him shot (and Chelios will probably be the guy holding the gun).

If Zetterberg makes only $8 mil per on his next contract, Red Wings management should thank its lucky stars. At Zetterberg’s age, Lidstrom wanted to be the second highest-paid player in the league at $10 mil per (not that he was undeserving). The Red Wings should pray that Zetterberg doesn’t follow in his footsteps.

Posted by Steve on 07/26/08 at 05:22 PM ET

The reason Hank needs a big payday is that he will have been woefully underpaid for 4 years after the lockout.  I wrote on this about 3 years ago.  His agent should have been fired for locking him in for 4 years right after a lockout.

This is what will make it close to impossible to resign Hossa unless there is a very big uptick in the cap.  Dangerous game for the Wings to play b/c no one knows what the cap numbers will be going forward and the Hossa deal puts them right near this year’s cap.

Posted by RWBill from jabbing a six inch sewing needle into my eye. on 07/26/08 at 07:14 PM ET

Nick Lidstrom never had a bajillionaire hot ass Swedish supermodel girlfriend.

Hank’s already gettin’ paid either way…

Just sayin’.

Posted by mudshark on 07/26/08 at 08:45 PM ET

tru dat.

Posted by Hippy Dave from San Francisco by way of Detroit on 07/26/08 at 09:22 PM ET

I put Zetterberg’s contract in the $8 to $9 mil-per range, but certainly not under $8 mil.

Well, Steve, thankfully you’re not the Wings GM. Kenny will offer Hank 7.45M for six or seven years and he’ll take it. He just built a new house in Detroit (or remodeled an existing house...not sure which) so he’s not going anywhere.

Hank is going to take his $45M or $50M and spend his career in a city that loves him (but doesn’t smother him). And he’ll leave the game with three or four SC rings because he chose to take less than he could get elsewhere.

And, if there’s cap room available to make the deal, I’m convinced that Hossa will sign for that exact same amount (for maybe three or four years). He’ll do it because he’s going to get a taste of what it’s like to be a winner and he won’t want to trade that feeling for more money someplace else.

To quote Ryan, “Lock it in.”

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 07/26/08 at 10:29 PM ET

What you’re saying is that after banking less than Sergei Samsonov(!) since the lockout, Zetterberg will be content with watching lesser players get richer while he fits himself under a Lidstrom ceiling that, for unknown reasons, will persist for at least a half-decade after the latter’s retirement.

Then you’re saying that Hossa will spontaneously buck a career-long turn as a merc and sign for the most foolish number of years imaginable (from the perspective of a 31-year old elite forward UFA), and he will do this because 4 years of being lucky enough to live in Detroit is greater compensation than the tens of millions he leaves on the table.

Uh, thankfully you’re not the Red Wings GM if you’re making those kinds of assumptions.

Based on your points I’m even more confident with my $8 mil minimum.

Posted by Steve on 07/27/08 at 02:56 AM ET

I still think he takes less than Lidstrom’s salary for as many years as he wants, but the only deals I’d really question are ones that take Zetterberg past age 34 or 35 (especially considering his back) or take up more than $8.5m of cap space.

I think this will most likely be Holland’s negotiating tactic.  You’ll accept 7.45 or less?  Set your term and it’s a done deal.  But if you want something in the 8’s, then the number of years will have to be less because of what may be lingering back and/or wrist issues.  Will Zetterberg ever be able to play a full season?

And really, if you look around the league, superstar players will have to take a massive pay cut if they want to stick with their own teams.  Last summer Thornton (7.2) signed for less than Gomez (7.357) and Iginla (7) signed for less than Drury (7.05).

Posted by yetanotherwingtransplant, aka yawt from norcal on 07/27/08 at 07:41 AM ET

Then you’re saying that Hossa will spontaneously buck a career-long turn as a merc ...

People keep bringing up how Hossa has played for several teams in his career as evidence that he has a mercenary attitude. But he had no say in any of those moves except the most recent one to the Red Wings. He was traded from the Ottawa to Atlanta to Pittsburgh. Actually the management of the teams he has played for have shown a lack of loyalty to him, not the other way around.

When he finally did get some say in where he would play—this year, as an unrestricted free agent—he chose to take one of the less lucrative offers given him in order to play a style of hockey that appeals to him for a team that he thinks has the best chance to win.

The evidence says to me that Hossa is not mercenary.

Posted by Michigan expat on 07/27/08 at 07:58 AM ET

and he will do this because 4 years of being lucky enough to live in Detroit is greater compensation than the tens of millions he leaves on the table.

You were making good points until you hit the “living in Detroit” moment; that’s a mantra for idiots, so don’t make it yours.

Anyway, OTC’s point, which is the one that will be made by Holland and Co. is that taking less helps *keep* us the perennial contenders we have been for over a decade. (If a cap had been in place, Lids would have taken less to stay on the Wings when he was Hank’s age)

Part of the point, it seems to me, is that people forget these are professional *athletes*; they have an intense desire to win and play at the highest level possible. If it was simply about making the most amount of money, the KHL would happily oblige.

Another way to think about it is that taking less is actually selfish, because it will allow you to continue the addiction that is winning.

As George noted above, Z has repeatedly said he wants to remain a Wing for life partly, I think, because he can be a part of the organization well after his playing days are over. Think very long term and a few mil left on the table now will mean little.

Posted by Osrt on 07/27/08 at 08:05 AM ET

You were making good points until you hit the “living in Detroit” moment; that’s a mantra for idiots, so don’t make it yours.

That’s not a specific knock against Detroit, per se. I wouldn’t have changed the sentence, except for the city, if someone had insinuated that St. Paul or NY or Pittsburgh had the kind of magical properties that will make 31 year-old write-their-own-ticket forwards (of the type that have previously threatened holdouts unless their pay exceeded that of two out of three reigning Richard trophy winners) sign for a foolish number of years at a cutthroat rate.

As far as the “less to win” argument, the problem I find with it is that $8-8.5 million already is ‘less to win.’ Lecavalier’s new contract is a new bar at $10 million per year until age 38, with jujitsu at ages 39 and 40 to make it appear that he’s making only making $8.5 mil, even though he isn’t. Zetterberg signing at more than his present yearly compensation below Lecavalier, whom I regard as a slightly lesser player, isn’t something I regard as likely, particularly in light of just how much money Zetterberg hasn’t made as an NHL player.

Which segues (or SegWAYs) into the problem I see with the examples you cite of Zetterberg-caliber players taking around $7 mil: that Iginla and Thornton have never been grossly underpaid (Thornton was a $4 million fourth liner for his first two seasons). Zetterberg will have made about $10 million over a four year period in which his production suggests at least triple that number would have been appropriate. That can’t be ignored.

Posted by Steve on 07/27/08 at 09:36 AM ET

You act like 10 million over 4 years is basically food stamp range...I think we forget just how much money that is.

Posted by moore00 from the Ohio State University on 07/27/08 at 10:03 AM ET

So how well is Zetterberg’s clothing sideline doing?

If that is successful, then he won’t need to make a ton more playing hockey to “make up for lost time.” He’s already got the money coming in from another source.

Isn’t Forsberg invested in those plastic shoes and making a ton in profits off that?  I seem to remember he is getting more money from the sales of those things than from hockey - and no foot surgery or rehab is required.

Like anyone who has a couple semi-independent sources of income, Zetterberg doesn’t have to get a maximum payoff from either source because he has two income streams, and a shortfall in one is compensated for by the other.  Same way that someone who has a good pension from retiring can work in a low-paying job that provides them a lot of personal satisfaction because they don’t need the income from that job to live on.  And if he wants term, he will take less per year, as with any other player who wants to stay in one spot for a few years.

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 07/27/08 at 10:50 AM ET

Zetterberg will have made about $10 million over a four year period in which his production suggests at least triple that number would have been appropriate. That can’t be ignored.

I think your point needs a wee bit o’ context, Steve.  So let’s see, you say $30 mil over the past four years would have been more in line with Z’s true value as a player.  That averages out to $7.5 million per. 

Looking at Z’s stats, I think this claim is simply unsupportable:

Year GP G A P
02-03 79 22-22-44
03-04 61 15-28-43
05-06 77 39-46-85
06-07 63 33-35-68
07-08 75 43-49-92

Obviously, a point-per-game pace puts a player like Z in line for a sizeable salary increase.  But there were no $9-10 million contracts for any NHL players in two of the three years Z scored at this pace.  So, although we can say he was worth that kind of money by today’s standards, the market wouldn’t have paid close to that during those years (with 2007-08 the obvious exception).  The $7 million range would’ve been closer to the mark for 06 and 07, at least.

Then you have 03 and 04.  As much as I love Hank, he needed a couple seasons to really find his game as the dominating force he’s become.  So I think you kind of have to scratch those years off the list.  As far as Z’s current salary goes, he earned it, so to speak, during those years.  Not a knock on Hank, just a fact.

So, you’re left with three seasons during which he produced at pretty much a torrid pace, and was significantly underpaid for his efforts- unless you put high value on things like Stanley Cups, President’s Trophies, the Conn Smythe, etc.  Which I’m fairly certain competitive athletes like Z do.  Maybe I’m wrong, but I doubt it.

And this is where I have a problem with your argument.  The question is whether the intangibles discussed here- playing for a winning franchise that treats you very well, living in a city you thoroughly enjoy and wish to remain for your career, having a rich-ass, hot-ass, supermodel TV star girlfriend, a sexually ambiguous clothing line, etc.- are worth the 2-2.5 million Z may give up should he choose to sign for term at a slightly lower salary.  Over a ten year contract, which isn’t out of the question considering the guy is, what, not even 28 yet, is the difference between $75 million and $85 million really going to be a major one?  I mean, do people with $85 million bucks look down on those lesser, unfortunate suckers who sign for $75?

This is a laughable proposition, especially when you consider a guy like Zetterberg who obviously has the leadership qualities we’ve grown to love and admire in the Yzermans and Lidstroms over the years in Detroit, including, um selflessness and devotion to team?

Cuz signing a $75 million contract ain’t exactly getting suckered, is it?

Posted by mudshark from Divetown, Colorado on 07/27/08 at 11:10 AM ET

That’s what makes Ken Holland the best GM in the NHL—we all consider Zetterberg to be grossly underpaid now, but at the time of signing?  For a guy coming off years of 44 and 43 points to sign a 4-year deal with a $2.65M cap hit, pretty reasonable don’t you think?  If I’m not mistaken Holland offered 2, 3, and 4-year deals and Zetterberg opted for the security of the 4-year.  He could have chosen the 2-year like Datsyuk and cashed in already, but he didn’t so maybe now he thinks more about the money and less about term, who knows.  But as others have already mentioned, there are a lot of amenities and incentives for staying in Detroit that he simply won’t get from another team, while still being paid very, very, very well, and if he wants it immediately (to make up for ‘lost money’), he can just as easily get a front-loaded contract like Lecavalier’s.

Posted by yetanotherwingtransplant, aka yawt from norcal on 07/27/08 at 12:32 PM ET

From what I’ve seen of Holland’s quotes and negotiating tactics is that he has always negotiated competitive pay. With the blessings of Ilitch, he regularly offers the best possible term/money combination he is allowed, given the CBA.  His initial offer to Hossa of a 6-year contract worth $6.7 mil per year was exactly what was being paid to Datsyuk.  He knew he wasn’t going to be able to fork up the $90 million equivalent offered by the Oilers.  So you can imagine how the NHL shook when Hossa accepted a one-year, $7.45 mil deal to sign with the Wings.

Zetterberg HAS NEVER led the team in regular-season scoring in his career at all.  In his first two years, it was either Robert Lang or Brendan Shanahan.  For three consecutive years after the departure of those guys, his long-lost twin brother, Pavel Datsyuk, has led the Wings in regular-season scoring.  Do you remember what that was like when Yzerman made the announcement that the Wings signed Datsyuk for six-years at $6.7 mil per year?  All Datsyuk did after that was play his ass off in the playoffs and lead the league in takeaways and +/-.

I still think $6.5 mil - $7.25 mil would be offered to Zetterberg.  It is truly genuine of Zetterberg to publically say in the Swedish papers and here in the States that he wants to remain a Red Wings player for life.  He has said that money isn’t that much of a big deal to him.  He deserves a tremendous raise - just not at the cost of disrupting the Wings ability to ice a Stanley Cup-quality team year after year.

Posted by SYF from Las Vegas, NV on 07/27/08 at 01:13 PM ET

Looking at Z’s stats, I think this claim is simply unsupportable:

I don’t see how. Zetterberg’s production has greatly exceeded his compensation on every year of his current contract and I see no reason to think it’ll drop significantly next season. His rookie year has no bearing on his worth relative his pay on his current contract, which is what I was referring to.

But it’s funny that you bring up Lidstrom as a player Zetterberg will use as an example. To give some “context”: every contract Lidstrom’s signed in ten years, excepting the one that starts this fall, has made him the league-wide highest-paid player at his position. For much of his career, Lidstrom’s been the highest or second-highest-paid player in the league. This fall, for the first time in over a decade, he signer for a full $50,000 less than the highest-paid defenseman (Chara). To be sure, that’s a discount (as Lidstrom’s a better player), but it’s hard to argue that it’s not his first.

Note that I’m not saying he’s not worth every penny, only that when someone makes more money than anybody else in the world who does the same job, that’s not a discount.

Note also that the first contract in a decade that Lidstrom takes less money than another player at his position comes when he’s 38, after he’s banked north of $50 million. Zetterberg, by contrast, is 28 and has pocketed less than $13 mm. If ‘Z’ follows in Lidstrom’s footsteps he’ll want to at least match Lecavalier’s $10 mil annual salary. I’m betting he won’t and will, instead, go $8 mm at the lowest and $9 mm at the highest.

That’s what makes Ken Holland the best GM in the NHL—we all consider Zetterberg to be grossly underpaid now, but at the time of signing?

What makes Holland the best GM in the NHL is his ability to find talent and sign those players to long-term deals, for a little more money than their past numbers indicate, the year before a breakout year. Kronwall, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, (perhaps Filpulla, but we’ll see) all signed contracts that seemed high at the time and quickly outperformed them in the first year, despite no obvious indications they would do so (that it was obvious to Holland underscores this phenomenonal ability to project player development).

What Holland doesn’t do is wave a magic wand, offer empty bromides about atmosphere, and, thereby, convince free agents that they should be more than happy to make roughly half of what the market dictates over the course of their career. Rafalski, for instance, doubled his salary when he called Detroit and probably wasn’t being offered much more elsewhere (based on what comparable defensemen received in the same summer). Even Hossa’s “discount” is a raise.

I still think $6.5 mil - $7.25 mil would be offered to Zetterberg

As I said before, if Zetterberg subverts both the arbitration and negotiation process for other players by taking $6.5 mm, he’ll certainly be overpaid after some overzealous PA-loyalist takes out his knees.

Posted by Steve on 07/27/08 at 02:06 PM ET

I’d be shocked if he takes $6.5 mil, but I think $7.5 mil, with term, is the most likely scenario.

Posted by mudshark on 07/27/08 at 02:13 PM ET

Well, Steve, apparently you know more about hockey salaries than you do about Red Wing hockey players. For the players, there absolutely does seem to be something “magical” about playing in Detroit. So if all that Ken & Company is able (or willing) to offer Hank is $7.45M, he’ll take it.

Unlike you, I don’t think Hank is going to sit down and “crunch the numbers” on what he has been paid versus what he’s produced. For him, I think the decision will be made on a far more visceral level.

You can choose to ignore all of the things he’s said about wanting to stay a Red Wing for life if that’s what you need to do in order to support your “numbers” approach. But it is what he’s said and it will play a huge part in his decision. And the fact that he loves playing with Pavel (who SYF aptly describes as “his long-lost twin brother") will also play a part.

I know the rest of the League (and probably the NHLPA as well) hates the fact that players are willing to play in Detroit for less. But they do. And I’m betting that, by this time next year, Marian is going to join Hank, Mule and the others who would rather count their SC rings than their riches.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 07/27/08 at 05:26 PM ET

There are a few things working against Zetterberg even if he wanted an enormous contract, though.

One is his back.  If this could be a career-long problem - and knowing how tricky back injuries are for anyone (just look at the numbers for time lost at any workplace and see how many days are lost to back pain), it’s the safe assumption - then that will limit his games played, and thus his usefulness to the team if he can be expected to not play full seasons.  That knocks some dollars off the contract right there.

Second, he’s going to be 28 years old.  That is in the prime of his career, but it isn’t as though he’s only 21 years old with large leaps in effectiveness to be expected.  He may get better from one year to the next, but the improvement is likely to be incremental.  By now what you see is what you get with Zetterberg, and what you get is pretty good, but he won’t be a much better player five years from now (which could reasonably be expected from a player going from 21 years old to 26 years old over the course of a contract).

Third, the salary cap is very restrictive to a team’s plans for their roster.  No matter how much the team might want to pay him, say, $9 million a year, they can’t fit it under the cap - whereas pre-salary-cap his agent might be able to wrangle just such a contract out of the management because the budget wasn’t limited by the league, now it is more significant to be one of the highest-paid players on a team and have a long-term contract as indicative of how much a player’s contributions are valued by the organization.

Fourth, maybe Zetterberg likes Kool-Aid - when he drinks it out of the Stanley Cup. 

Still, we’ll see.  He might be content only winning one Cup for sure and chase the money with a team that isn’t as likely to make the playoffs and be happy to coast through to retirement - someone was opining that Hossa had just those plans once he won a Cup.  (Of course that ignores the fact that so many other players managed somehow to keep their competitive drive intact after winning once...)

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 07/27/08 at 05:51 PM ET

Yeah, you’re right, Zetterberg’s not going to “crunch the numbers” or, you know, even ask his...what is it called...his agent?...to do it for him. He’s going to meditate in front of a pile of Crystals until either Holland interrupts to dictate a number or $6.5 pervades his viscera in a magnificent gastric vision. I’m picturing it now and see what you mean.

Yeah, you’re right that I’m ignoring Zetterberg’s ‘Red Wing for life’ statement and that I’m wrong to do so. I realize now that no other great player has ever said that about a team and left, not even the All-time career scoring leaders numbered 1, 2, 3, 9 and 11 or the All-time career Wins leader number 1.

Yeah, you’re right, what do I know about Hossa? He genuinely isn’t the same guy who threatened a contract holdout unless he was paid the same as Iginla and more than Kovalchuk and Nash, despite the fact that all three had exceeded his production in the previous year. He changed area codes, which makes all the difference, and will jump up and down to take the first pay cut of his life starting next June. Thank you for helping me understand.

Yeah, you’re right, what do I know about Red Wing hockey players? I always assumed, being subsets of the group ‘human beings’, Red Wings hockey players would value their families’ financial stability--for generations to come--ahead of their dedication to the personal entertainment of some guy from Hogwarts, er, Grand Rapids. Glad you set me straight on that one, too.

Posted by Steve on 07/27/08 at 06:26 PM ET

Baroque, I more or less agree with most of that and highly doubt Zetterberg goes anywhere. I’m just expressing my belief that, considering Zetterberg’s pedigree and considering Detroit’s fairly flexible cap situation going forward (flexible assuming Detroit doesn’t sign Hossa, who’s never even thought the word pay-cut, let alone spoken it), $7.5 sounds at least a half-million too low and $6.5 is downright bark-at-the-moon bonkers. I don’t know why that opinion is so controversial.

Posted by Steve on 07/27/08 at 06:34 PM ET

assuming Detroit doesn’t sign Hossa, who’s never even thought the word pay-cut, let alone spoken it…

He just took one to come to Detroit!!!

$7.5 sounds at least a half-million too low and $6.5 is downright bark-at-the-moon bonkers. I don’t know why that opinion is so controversial.

I don’t find your opinion all that controversial, I just think that, for a guy following in the footsteps of the Yzermans and Lidstroms, who actually did (or, assumedly, will) back up their “I want to retire in (your city here)” talk by actually doing it.  That’s why I think you’re off-base for thinking Z will hold out for bigger money or maybe even, as I believe you imply, at least, take off for greener ($$$) pastures.  I’d be surprised if it took $8 million to lock him down (though the falling dollar is a bitch these days)- I think Hank acts as the team player here, and takes a bit less than that.  And I think, if things go well for him in Detroit, Hossa might figure out a way for Kenny Boy to keep him around, too.

Back to barking at the moon now…

Posted by mudshark from Divetown, Colorado on 07/27/08 at 08:40 PM ET

$7.4 million represents a 5% pay increase from Hossa’s salary last season and a 23% increase of his average annual salary on his last contract, which is a lower than expected increase, but isn’t a “pay cut” by any definition of the term. It’s also a higher annual salary than Pittsburgh and, supposedly, Boston offered.

Less than Edmonton, but, once you see a picture of Hossa’s girlfriend/fiancee/whatever, you’ll understand that there’s not likely any amount of money that’s going to convince her to move with him for seven years to the Fozen North, so I’m thinking Edmonton was not all that strongly considered (nothing against Edmonton, just that player wives and girlfriends seem to not want to go there, ex. Pronger, Nylander, etc.).

Either way, Hossa’s making more this year with the Red Wings than he did with ATL/PIT last year or would have with PIT or BOS this year, and his average salary over the course of the contract (which is only one year, of course) jumped significantly. So, as I said, Hossa’s yet to consider a pay cut in his career.

I also would like to reiterate that I don’t believe Zetterberg will be going anywhere or holding out for any length of time. I think his asking price will be in the $8s, probably the low $8s, and the Wings will have to ask whether, as the expected post-Lidstrom standard bearer, he’s worth that much to them. With the ever-increasing cap (which functions the same way as inflation) and Lidstrom’s not-far-off retirement, Holland would be crazy to say no.

I don’t think Holland’s crazy.

Posted by Steve on 07/27/08 at 09:42 PM ET

Sorry Steve, but the argument that Hossa didn’t take a pay cut to play in Detroit is not legitimate. The opportunity cost, a genuine economic term, is pure dollars is in the $70 mil range. Technically not a pay cut, but certainly a reduced rate. Also, I believe he asked for 8 mil for one year but then agreed to the Lidstrom cap. Again, not a pay cut in the way you diagrammed, but a reduced rate none the less.

As much as Hossa’s earlier contract situation worries me, this seems to be a different person at a different stage in his careers; at least, if his actions can stand in for him.

This may sound insane, but I would rather have Franzen than Hossa if the cap demands either player has to go. I may change my mind as I get to know Hossa, but Mule is just coming into his own.

I don’t think this is Lidstrom’s final contract either. He is playing some of the best hockey of his career and just filling out as a Captain. He doesn’t have major injury problems (knock on wood, metal and precious stones including testies if necessary) and has tremendous drive.

Finally, I think everyone is a little Z happy right now after his playoff performance––as they should be. However, Dats is the one who played throughout the entire season, won the Selke, and lead the team in hits(!!) during the playoffs.

Z will make more than his EuroTwin but will not above Lidas’ shelf.

Posted by Osrt on 07/27/08 at 10:24 PM ET

$7.4 million represents a 5% pay increase from Hossa’s salary last season and a 23% increase of his average annual salary on his last contract, which is a lower than expected increase...blah, blah, blah, blah, BLAH.

Geez Louise, put the calculator away Stevie-boy and pay attention to (1) what other players have done in order to stay a Red Wing and (2) what Hank himself has said about wanting to be a Red Wing for life. And, as much as this must pain a numbers nut like yourself, his agent is not going to make the decision for him.

...$7.5 sounds at least a half-million too low…

Right. Why would Hank stay in a city he seems to love and continue playing with players who give him a great chance to win the Cup each year if the Wings won’t pony up that extra $500k? Man, you are seriously out of touch with the reality of the hockey world in Detroit. Even those of us up here in Hogwarts can see that.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 07/27/08 at 10:45 PM ET

I don’t think the cap situation is nearly as flexible as it seems at first glance.

If Zetterberg gets a seven-year deal, for example, in the couse of that time it is likely that Holmstrom, Draper, Lidstrom, and even Chelios will retire and if they can’t be replaced from within the organization Detroit will have to go the (expensive) trade route or the (more expensive) free agent route - same for replacing Osgood and getting a competent backup if needed.  Kronwall will need a new contract, Filppula (if he stays) will be pulling down more salary, and if his back problems continue to plague him he might only have 60, 65, or 70 games a year when fully healthy as a rule.

The Red Wings have to decide whether or not they can afford a cap hit of $9 million (which Steve advocates as a starting point) for that at that time.

$6.5 is probably insanely low, though.  I’ll grant that.)

Posted by Baroque from Michigan on 07/28/08 at 07:34 AM ET