Kukla's Korner Hockey
Way Over My Head
by Paul on 09/08/09 at 03:04 PM ET
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from DrugMonkey at ScienceBlogs,
Getting back to my discomfort with the lack of completeness in the vignettes provided by Gladwell, the comment thread at FSP’s blog points to the fact that Gladwell might have been wrong, slightly. This comment points to a hockey blog that objects to the Gladwell implications. Specifically:
If we only look at former Canadian junior players who were in the top sixth in NHL scoring, which was anyone with 42 points or more last year, the ratio of early-to-late birthday players over the last decade is about 1.20:1….. It turns out that the group where players with early birthdays are most over-represented is the league leaders in penalty minutes per game, and I can’t see anyone getting up in arms about whether some kid’s December birthday kept him from becoming the next Ogie Ogilthorpe.
My first thought is that it does not necessarily falsify the general point. If this analysis is true (and there are complications having to do with age cohorts, definitions of good performance, etc) it may simply point to the fact that NHL players are the outliers of the outliers of the outliers.
more, but it only confuses me…
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