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Another Take on Marian Gaborik
by Mike Chen on 10/29/08 at 11:20 AM ET
Comments (3)
After discussing the Marian Gaborik situation with some friends last night, I think I’ve finally formed an opinion on “Would you trade for him?”
Not surprisingly, the answer is “Maybe.” It’s a dynamic situation, so it all depends on circumstance. There are two teams that I think should at least kick the tires in a deal, and there’s a way to get a reasonable salary structure in line, though it’ll definitely take heavy convincing for his agent to actually buy off on it.
First off, would I trade for Gaborik? I’d consider it if I was either the Florida Panthers or Atlanta Thrashers. The reasons being:
1) Lack of scoring punch: They’re slightly different situations where Florida has several second-tier scorers while Atlanta is top heavy. Infusing Gaborik’s talent would make an immediate impact—when he’s healthy.
2) Market demands: Nothing beats winning to put butts in the seats but it always helps to have an identifiable star for fans to latch on to. Atlanta’s got Ilya Kovlachuk but the loss of Marian Hossa hurt. In Florida, there’s not much in the name of star-power forwards now that Olli Jokinen is gone.
3) Long-term cap space: Atlanta has cap space to spare but Florida is surprisingly around the $53 million mark. However, significant chunks of Florida’s cap will be relieved next season as interchangeable parts like Radek Dvorak and Karlis Skrastins hit unrestricted free agency. You’d also expect Florida to trade something of substance, so the cap scenario is feasible with a little bit of work.
With that in mind, once you acquire Gaborik, you need to sign him to an extension. If I’m a GM, I’d offer him a few different options that are reasonable from a team perspective considering Gaborik’s history of injuries. I doubt, however, that his agent would be pleased with them.
-1 year, $6.5 million. Gives him a chance to prove himself, and if he’s injured, the injury exception removes cap pain and the short term provides flexibility.
-2 years, $5 million per. More stability for Gaborik but below “star player” market value money.
-3 years, $4 million per. The longest guarantee in terms of length but it’s almost certain that Gaborik would see it as an insult.
I think the second option is actually fairly reasonable. At the end of the deal, Gaborik would still be under 30, and if he’s played well and been healthy, he’d be in for a long-term extension at the going rate.
The bottom line is that his agent has to realize that he’s damaged goods at this point. The sensible thing to do is to give him a season or two to prove himself, then try to cash in then.
Of course, pro athletes and their agents aren’t exactly known for being sensible.
Filed in: NHL | Mike Chen's Hockey Blog | Permalink
Tags: Marian+Gaborik,
Comments
Dump the band-aide now. We don’t need crybabies in Minny. He doesn’t like Lemaires style. Besides we Kiouvo for our “ALL AROUND” super-star and we should sign him to a career long contract. Gabby should fire his agent. The longer he waits the more Gabby gets screwed.
Posted by minnow on 11/01/08 at 11:46 AM ET
Awesome analysis!
Marion Gaborik is soon to be traded and I think there is a list of possible teams. Rangers, Hawks, Canadiens, and also Atlanta and Carolina. Many possibilities but Flyers is where I think he will be heading. My thoughts http://jib-sports-culture.blogspot.com/2008/11/marion-gaborik-on-move.html
Posted by JH on 11/19/08 at 09:44 PM ET
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1) We agree that Gabby hasn’t yet earned the right to demand super star money. have 1 big season(90 points, 78+ games played and a decent playoff) then come back and ask for a 7+mil deal
2) Opposition GM’s must also see this and are reluctant to give up what Risebrough thinks marion’s fair market value is. In the end the Wild will probably resign the Slovak to a 4-5 year 30-40 mil deal
Posted by fauxrumors from Here on 10/31/08 at 09:04 AM ET