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Backing Into The Post-Season
by Mike Chen on 04/10/09 at 12:52 PM ET
Comments (2)
Here’s a quick snapshot of how previous Cup finalists ended their season over the last five games:
2008 Detroit Red Wings: 3-1-1
2008 Pittsburgh Penguins: 3-1-1
2007 Anaheim Ducks: 3-0-2
2007 Ottawa Senators: 3-1-1
2006 Carolina Hurricanes: 1-2-2
2006 Edmonton Oilers: 3-2
2004 Tampa Bay Lightning: 3-1-1
2004 Calgary Flames: 3-2
What does this all mean? Not much. If you’re looking for patterns, the eventual Stanley Cup finalists aren’t destroying everyone when they make it into the post-season but they’re no slouches either. In short, despite tremendous seasons from the Sharks, Red Wings, and Bruins, this is going to be a wide-open field with strong teams making up 5-8 seeds.
Filed in: NHL | Mike Chen's Hockey Blog | Permalink
Tags: Standings,
Comments
Based on this data, I suggest the field is wide open because how you finish a season doesn’t seem to be any indication of how you’ll perform. Look at the number of playoff teams and see how many of them won three of their last five; it’s usually a pretty good chunk. After all, you have to win at that clip in order to make the playoffs.
All I’m saying is that for teams flying into the playoffs, don’t get cocky. And for teams backing into the playoffs, don’t jump off a bridge. 
Posted by Mike Chen on 04/11/09 at 02:34 PM ET
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I like the data. But how does it support your conclusion that the field is wide open? It seems like a total non-sequitur.
The existance of Calgary and Edmonton on that list prove upsets can happen, but keep in mind that all four of those Cup winners were in the top four in the league overall in regular season points. If I had to give odds, I’d still say there’s at least a two-thirds chance that one of Detroit, San Jose, or Boston. That leaves only one third for everyone else, and if you start crunching the numbers, that doesn’t leave much for teams like Columbus or St. Louis, let alone the Rangers or Montreal.
Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 04/10/09 at 08:00 PM ET