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Bidding War? No Thanks
by Mike Chen on 06/29/09 at 01:09 PM ET
Comments (3)
Now that we’re a few years into the salary cap, the notion of long-term (5+ years) contracts is the big thing with free agents, yet so many of these teams are hit with buyer’s remorse even one year in the deal.
Scott Gomez. Brian Campbell. Wade Redden. Ryan Smyth. All name players of varying quality, but the anchor of a team? Nope, not by far, but they received contracts like such and have failed to live up to expectations.
(A short aside—if we look at the past decade, including pre-lockout moves, how many of these headache contracts from the desk of Glen Sather? Just sayin’.)
Will this year’s group be any different? A quick review of the available free agents shows a crop of good players but no true elite players. The best players available are great supporting pieces but they’re not the stars of the show, yet you know some impulsive GM will overspend to get their rights. If I could play NHL GM for a day, I’d have a hard time getting into a bidding war with any of the top-tier free agents. In fact, I’m betting that you’re going to get a lot of buyer’s remorse in the near future because each of the top guys comes with at least one significant question mark.
Someone somewhere will probably give Jay Bouwmeester a long-term deal averaging at least $7 million a season. Has Bouwmeester’s talent simply been hidden because of his time playing in Florida? I have a hard time believing so, since dedicated hockey fans can easily watch the Panthers play either online or on Center Ice. It’s not like it’s impossible to see him, and when they do, they’ll see a talented, swift-skating defenseman with good range and a smart outlet pass—but one who fails to control the game. He’s a great player but he’s not the type of guy who pulls the team on his back and wills them to win. Perhaps that’s part of his soft-spoken personality, but history has shown us time and again that quiet guys can still be fierce competitors.
Yet, someone will give Bouwmeester an absurd contract, then probably cry about being under cap problems one year from now. Similarly, I’m guessing that whoever signs Marian Gaborik will most likely have heartburn when he looks at future cap management. Gaborik may be a game breaker, but it’s just as likely that he’ll score a goal in a game or his leg will spontaneously combust during the warm-up skate. The Sedin twins? One of them may be a great addition, but who wants to manage a combined $10 - $12 million cap hit over a long term when these two guys are on the cusp of 30?
Secondary free agents aren’t immune to this either. Look at guys like Ryan Malone, a clear support player whose UFA status elevated him beyond his worth. It’s a double-edged sword for everyone involved, as guys like this kill a team’s cap; on the other hand, if you’re a free agent and you hold out for too much money, eventually the overpriced offers go away as no one has the money to spend.
The truly smart moves, I think, are in maneuvering with the teams that are looking to clear up cap space to overpay impending free agents. In those cases, you should be able to fleece a desperate GM who thinks that if he could just get that one guy, it’ll put his team over the top and he’ll do anything to make it happen—but he’s gotta clear cap space first. For those moves, you might be able to acquire under-contract depth players without having to negotiate by this season’s absurd going rate.
I’d hope that the uncertainty facing future-year cap numbers will show some fiscal sanity on the part of GMs. But it only takes one moron to ruin it for everyone, and while a few GMs might explore giving someone like Gaborik a reasonable short-term deal, you know one fool will overpay in both price and length. And of course, one year later there will be rumors of how that GM will try to get out from the crushing weight of that deal.
It’s times like that I think about Brian Burke’s proposal about trading partial salary cap hits. I like this idea, as it opens up movement possibilities but it’s not like it excuses GMs for their mistakes—if, for example, the Rangers hold on to half of Wade Redden’s cap hit, it’s still a multi-million burden they have to deal with.
In the mean time, we have to live with this system. As an semi-objective bystander, I look forward to shaking my head in amusement/horror about 48 hours from now. Since Tampa Bay’s in obvious financial troubles, I’m guessing that their willingness to commit to stupid contracts will be much less than last year; in that case, what’s the over/under on bad Glen Sather moves?
Filed in: NHL | Mike Chen's Hockey Blog | Permalink
Tags: Daniel+Sedin, Free+Agency, Glen+Sather, Henrik+Sedin, Jay+Bouwmeester, Marian+Gaborik,
Comments
1) It would be insanity to give Bouwmeester a 7 mil long term deal. Is he even in the top 10 of defensemen? Not even close in our opinion. 5 million for 5 years, tops!
2) Gaborik is injury prone. Anyone been watching his career? To give him anything more than 3 years 6 mil would be insane too.
3)Of course agents will easily find at least one mentally unstable GM ready to dole out the big bucks.
4) Speaking of which what about not one but TWO 12 year contracts for the Sedins!?! Sorry, they are very good hockey players, but elites of the game deserving of that kind of investment? No way, no how!
Posted by Faux Rumors from Globally- Here, there, Everywhere on 06/29/09 at 02:15 PM ET
I don’t believe anyone will be signing Zetterberg money for each of the Sedin twins. They ain’t won anything.
Posted by SYF from a "Bron-Y-Aur Stomp" on 06/29/09 at 03:22 PM ET
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You forgot someone: Briere. Man I want him gone. First year was great, but last year was horrible. I don’t want to deal with him for 6 more years. Hopefully Homer can get something done so we don’t have to see #48 anymore.
Posted by Philip from Philadelphia on 06/29/09 at 01:55 PM ET