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Kessel Can’t Go To The Sharks (Directly)

by Mike Chen on 09/04/09 at 01:49 PM ET
Comments (4)

Ok, so the Phil Kessel-to-San Jose rumors are flying about now thanks to the Sharks’ cap-clearing moves last week. However, a simple look at numbers shows that a trade between the two teams is pretty much impossible without a third party getting involved.

Please recall that the trading of Christian Ehrhoff and Brad Lukowich to the Vancouver Canucks opened up about $4 million of cap space. That’s why everyone thought the trades were a precursor to something else. However, the Sharks promptly signed Torrey Mitchell, Brad Staubitz, and Thomas Greiss, which took up about half of that $2 million cap space. As it stands right now, the Sharks are hovering around the $54 million mark. That leaves them with about $3 million in cap space.

The Bruins, on the other hand, have about $1.5 million to play with thanks to buyouts of Glen Murray, Peter Schaefer, and Patrick Eaves, along with the $3.3 million signing of Derek Morris. However, this is a best-case scenario as it doesn’t factor bonuses in there (bonuses count against the cap); if all bonuses are achieved, then the Bruins are technically around $1.5 million over the cap—and that’s even without Kessel’s new contract.

(For anyone interested, those bonuses are for Milan Lucic, Blake Wheeler, and Tuuka Rask. So you can be pretty sure that the first two will achieve their bonuses. The latter? Not so much.)

Puck Daddy pinned the proposed Kessel number at around $4.4 million a year, or David Booth-style numbers. That simply doesn’t work with either team, which means that A) if the Bruins signed Kessel, they’d have to clear out space elsewhere and B) if the Sharks traded for him, they’d have to ship out salary in return, which the Bruins can’t take.

There are two caveats to this. First off, it’s important to remember that most teams don’t want to spend to the cap (if they’re allowed to by their internal budgeting) until the trade deadline. If you’re at the cap come October, then that really hampers your ability to do much during the season. Sure, you could jettison salary, but you’re playing from a position of weakness, and considering how chaotic the trade deadline salary additions are, it’s a place no GM wants to be in. Ideally, you’d probably want to start $3 - $4 million below the cap when the season kicks off, and that should allow you to comfortably absorb any pro-rated cap hit come February or March.

Second, don’t forget that Kessel is injured and won’t be able to return to the ice until December. That means that whichever team owns his rights can stick him on the long-term injury list, which essentially nullifies his cap hit until he can return. So let’s say in theory the Sharks trade for Kessel’s rights. They then have about two months to get rid of salary to accommodate Kessel before he’s activated.

Regardless of the situation, some third party will have to get involved in order for to Kessel to fit. From the Sharks perspective, I think it’d make cap sense to trade both Jonathan Cheechoo ($3 million cap hit) and Milan Michalek ($4.3 million cap hit). Yes, that’s freeing up more room than is necessary, but it allows for maximum flexibility and keeps an eye on the short-term and long-term roster—there are only so many top-six forwards you can field, and Patrick Marleau’s future is uncertain in that he could sign elsewhere next year or he could get extended should he have a good season without the captaincy. This scenario gets rid of dead (or injured) weight in Cheechoo and a greater offensive upside than Michalek while leaving flexibility for the trade deadline and the upcoming season.

Note that I’m not necessarily advocating that the Sharks go get Kessel. This just seems to be the most realistic scenario if it actually happened.

Filed in: NHL | Mike Chen's Hockey Blog | Permalink
Tags: Boston+Bruins, Phil+Kessel, San+Jose+Sharks,

Comments

Why on earth do the Sharks want Kessel....? Their problem is a) Nabakov sucks b) Thornton is a dog c) Marleau (see b).........How does Kessel solve those problems? Anyway, the Bruins have no cap space so they are looking for picks and prospects. A #1 pick from SJ is useless. The Sharks will be drafting 25-30 next year. Either Doug Wilson is clueless or Sharks fans are.........this makes no sense

Posted by kevin from boston on 09/04/09 at 01:14 PM ET

Sometimes the better story overshadows the truth. Marleau and Thornton were the only the reasons the Sharks didn’t get swept by ANA.

Nabby, on the other hand, did have a poor season. Of course, he was probably robbed of a Vezina last year and virtually walked on water against CGY and DAL last year in the playoffs. His true talent is probably somewhere in between, at 36 he is still probably a top 10 to 15 goaltender but not a stud. Probably just as skilled as Cam Ward or Nik Khabibulin who also won cups.

Really, the Sharks crapped out last year because of the confluence of the 2nd line laying a turd and Jonas Hiller 1) stopping every first shot, and 2) never having to pay for his poor rebound control with Pronger and Neidermeyer helping out. I guess you could point to “leadership” as well, but the lack thereof in Marleau and Thornton doesn’t make them “dogs”, it just makes them not the next coming of Steve Yzerman (who was a crappy captain too until he had superstars all around him).

Posted by Ruben from San Jose on 09/04/09 at 03:12 PM ET

You don’t win Cups unless your best players win them for you. Thornton and Marleau are never going to do that. But hey you will always have great regular seasons so enjoy that. Not every team can say that much. But the Bruins will want draft picks and a SJ #1 pick is hardly worthwhile if you are going to win the President’s Trophy again. I don’t get why SJ needs anybody right now anyway. Get somebody at the trade deadline for alot less than Kessel will cost and save alot of money between now and then.

Posted by kevin from boston on 09/04/09 at 04:16 PM ET

Well, Kevin, I do agree with you that I’m not sure Kessel is worth all this fuss, particularly since he can’t play anyways until Nov-Dec. This will sound blasphemous to a lot of other Sharks fans, but I’d rather have Heatley for what he will cost than Kessel for what he will cost. Most are saying the Ehrhof/Luko trade is a precursor to something else… Im hoping it is just a move to allow them flexibility at the trade deadline.

As for Marleau and Thornton, the same things were/have been said about Ray Bourque, John Elway, Dan Marino, Alex Rodriguez, and my favorite example Steve Yzerman. Really, nothing changed about any of those players throughout their career, either postseason or regular season. The ones who won championships eventually won them because of one simple reason… that championship team (or teams) were talented to the brim. Steve Yzerman is the ultimate example of a guy whose perception as a leader has been skewed because he became a winner, yet as much as people want to say it was because he was this great captain the Red WIngs never won anything until they had Lidstrom, Shanahan, Konstantinov, Federov, etc.

Truth is, Marleau and Thornton WERE the Sharks’ best players, along with Torrey Mitchell. And Marleau did it on one leg. Marleau has long been a great postseason performer. Again, if you want to cite his “demeanor” or Thornton’s Boston day’s, well those are fair criticisms. But Datsyuk didn’t exactly light it up this year, and Malkin was awful the first two rounds. Both of their teams seemed to do okay. Marleau’s and Thornton’s performance wasn’t an issue, at least this year.

Posted by Ruben on 09/05/09 at 01:24 PM ET

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About Mike Chen’s Hockey Blog

Mike Chen prides himself in being the only hockey writer integrating puck discussion with both Morrissey quotes and Star Wars references. Since 2004, he’s blogged about all things hockey and currently contributes to FoxSports.com, the Battle of California, and RotoRob.

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