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by Mike Chen on 03/30/09 at 01:02 PM ET
Comments (5)
I don’t know about you, but I look at the top of the standings and I vulnerabilities. Obviously, the Sharks, Red Wings, and Bruins are good teams—their records speak for themselves. But the great thing about an 82-game season is it gives teams time to understand and exploit the inherent flaws in each team. No team is perfect, and sometimes it just takes a little time to discover this.
That’s why I’m guessing that at least one of these three gets knocked out in the first round. Their inconsistent play in the second half of the season shows that they’re all vulnerable in their own ways. In fact, scanning down to the second tier of teams (Chicago, Calgary, Washington) and the New Jersey Devils, who are floating somewhere in between of the first and second tier, I wouldn’t put my money on anyone right now. Out of all of the “have” teams, I’d say that the most consistent going into the playoffs might just be the Devils—but the “have not” playoff teams really aren’t that far away.
Out west, if I was a top seed, the one team I’d try to avoid like the plague would be the Columbus Blue Jackets. In past seasons, I’ve had little reason to watch Columbus but since the All-Star break I’ve tuned into more and more of their games and I’m pretty sure that they’ll be loads of problems for whichever top seed they face.
The problem with Columbus has three parts:
-First, they’ve addressed the whole notion that only Rick Nash scores on the team. Antoine Vermette and RJ Umberger have found a nice chemistry and provide a good second scoring line. At the same time, injuries have kept depth veterans like Fredrik Modin out of the lineup for stretches of the season. As good as Columbus has been during the stretch run, they’re not even playing with a full lineup.
-Second, Ken Hitchcock’s got Columbus playing aggressive, abrasive hockey that’s defensively sound and pretty energetic. While their power play isn’t anything to write home about, the fact that they’re getting it done without that as a key weapon shows that this team has really bought into Hitch’s system. That Hitchcock guy knows a thing or two about coaching, and I’m guessing that the in-your-face style he’s got Columbus skating with will mesh perfectly with the playoffs.
-Third, they’ve got Steve Mason. Sure, he’s a rookie but he’s big, quick, and extremely talented. The only real downside to Mason is that he might be burnt out from a whirlwind season. His bout with mono took him out for a chunk of the season, and that might actually be a blessing in disguise as it prevented him from getting overloaded in his rookie campaign.
Of course, since this will be the first playoff series in Columbus history, the team might get the jitters and wind up being too hyped up, leading to brain-cramp turnovers and bad penalties. That’s the only way I can see Columbus going out of the first round easily; otherwise, they’ll provide an entertaining and brutal match up for whichever top seed has to face them.
Filed in: NHL | Mike Chen's Hockey Blog | Permalink
Tags: Boston+Bruins, Columbus+Blue+Jackets, Detroit+Red+Wings, San+Jose+Sharks,
Comments
Definitely see your point. I think it’ll be good for CBJ to start out on the road to try and get some of the playoff jitters out of them. If they can overcome that and play within their system—and if Mason is awesome—they’re going to be tough. Mason scares the crap out of me.
Posted by Mike Chen on 03/30/09 at 01:23 PM ET
One thing to watch for - Steve Mason’s weakness high glove side. Teams are starting to key on it. The Jackets play a great system but relying on a rookie goale in the playoffs is a risk.
I’d much rather play the Jackets over Ducks/Blues (the teams I see making the bottom two places). The Preds have been a surprise and their effort and heart has been commendable, but with both Legwand and Erat out, a bad offensive team gets even worse.
Posted by DobberHockey_Angus from British Columbia on 03/30/09 at 01:44 PM ET
As a Wings fan, in order from “least want to play” to “most”:
1. Anaheim
2. Columbus
3. San Jose
4. Vancouver
5. Calgary
6. Nashville
7. Chicago
8. St. Lose
9. Minny
10. Edmonton
I think the B’s are the most likely of those three clubs at the top of the league to get bounced in the first. Detroit is very schizo. I cannot decide whether they will lose in the first round, or win back-to-back. I think it’s boom-or-bust for them. If they get out of the first round, I think they’ll be in great position for the repeat, but they admittedly have the look of a team that just won’t be motivated enough against the inferior talent of teams like Columbus and Nashville, and they won’t find that motivation until they’re down 2-0 or 3-1 in a series. Honestly, if they could play Calgary, San Jose, or Chicago in the first round, it’d be better for them and their focus.
Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 03/30/09 at 04:05 PM ET
Yea, I completely agree with you that the “top three” aren’t awe-inspiring… and that little would surprise me this season.
In the West, I would not be shocked to see any of San Jose, Detroit, Columbus, Calgary or Vancouver make the finals. In fact, it wouldn’t shock me if Anaheim were to ride the goaltending of Jonas Hiller a ways… if they can get in.
I think especially this year a hot goalie is going to determine who advances, and wouldn’t be concerned in the slightest with Mason’s status as a rookie were I a Jackets fan. Heck, maybe it’s even better for them that he hasn’t been around long enough to see this all as a big deal.
I don’t follow the East as closely as the West, but the only current top seed that would surprise me if they advance to the Finals is Washington. Back to the goaltending things, I just would be surprised if Jose Theodore is “the guy” this season.
Posted by Dave Stark from San Jose, CA on 03/31/09 at 12:54 AM ET
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1) No swipe, but if we were in the West the team we’d like to see/play the most would be Columbus. Like Atlanta 2 years ago, just getting in was already a visctory of sorts and many players will be going to the second seson for the first time. Its a steep learning curve.
2) Agree that there isn’t a 1977 canadiens in the NHL this season. No one should be surprised to see 2 6th seeds make it to the Finals this season!
Posted by Faux Rumors from Globally- Here, there, Everywhere on 03/30/09 at 01:07 PM ET