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Picking Conn Smythe
by Mike Chen on 06/12/09 at 11:05 AM ET
Comments (11)
If the Red Wings win the Stanley Cup tonight (and if you’re going by history, that if comes with about 90% certainty because of home ice), I think we’re all in agreement about giving the Conn Smythe to Chris Osgood. He’s been surprisingly steady, and other than Game 4 against Columbus, hasn’t really had a bad game that I can think of.
On the other hand, should the Penguins beat the odds and win, everyone’s handing the Conn Smythe over to Evgeni Malkin.
Now hold on a second. While Malkin was, to use a Pierre McGuire term, a monster during the Carolina series and has been very strong against the Red Wings, am I the only one who remembers that it took about two series for him to really get going?
Well, “get going” is used in relative terms. There was about a two-week chunk of the playoffs where the media asked a lot about where Malkin had been. That’s what happens when you “only” get five points in seven games split against Philadelphia and Washington.
So Malkin’s first-half playoff totals were 6G, 13A in 13 games. Not exactly numbers to scoff at but he wasn’t the dominant player we saw destroying the Hurricanes. Against Carolina and Detroit, he’s had 15 points in 10 games.
On the other hand, Sidney Crosby seemed to be everyone’s shoe-in for Conn Smythe leader after two rounds. At just about a goal-per-game (12 goals in 13 games) in the first two rounds, and a fair share of assists, Crosby looked like he shrugged off all of the burdens of last year’s playoffs while Malkin still looked like he was in the funk that slowed him down in the 2008 Cup final.
Against Carolina, Crosby and Malkin were equally beasts, with Crosby getting seven points in four games. As for the Wings series, well, we all know what the tenacious checking of Zetterberg, Lidstrom, and Rafalski have done to Crosby, and he’s been limited to three points in six games so far.
The question comes down to this—is it purely “What have you done for me lately?” when it’s Conn Smythe voting? That seems to be what everyone’s thinking, and I’m not quite sure why. Malkin wasn’t dominating in the first two rounds while Crosby was; they both played extremely well against Carolina and Malkin’s had a better series against Detroit, though Crosby’s attracted his share of shut-down attention.
If we did this mathematically, let’s assign a 1 for a mediocre series, 2 for a good series, and 3 for a superb series. Crosby gets 3 (Philadelphia), 3 (Washington), 3 (Carolina), and 1 (Detroit) for a total of 10. Malkin gets 2 (Philadelphia), 2 (Washington), 3 (Carolina), and 2 (Detroit) for a total of 9. By that logic, they’re pretty even. But the media loves to jump on the hot hand, so the fact that Malkin’s been the best Penguin against Detroit makes a lot of people forget that he hasn’t been the best Penguin all playoff long.
Another way to look at it is that up till the Detroit series, Crosby only had two games without a point while Malkin had four. Heading into Game 7, they’re equal with six games without a point.
So if the Penguins do wind up beating the home-ice odds, I wouldn’t just hand it over to Malkin. I’d say that it’s a toss up between the two, as Malkin had one stronger series than Crosby and Crosby’s had two stronger (but early) series than Malkin. If the Pens are hoisting Lord Stanley tonight, then the Conn Smythe goes to whoever decides to actually step it up tonight between those two.
And if they both fail but wind up winning, I’ll give the Conn Smythe to Max Talbot, not cause he necessarily deserves it (though he’s been good) but because he’s in this awesome car commercial. Can we all be “superstars” and awkwardly dance?
Update: Obviously, I’m not a superstar because I brain-farted and left the E off Smythe. Fixed and facepalmed.
Filed in: | Mike Chen's Hockey Blog | Permalink
Tags: Chris+Osgood, Conn+Smythe, Evgeni+Malkin, Sidney+Crosby,
Comments
It just hasn’t been a good few days for me, has it? 
Fixed, and I’m going to the box to feel shame.
Posted by Mike Chen on 06/12/09 at 10:33 AM ET
But the media loves to jump on the hot hand
This is true, but I also want to point out that there were 16 teams that had players with potentially (even the losers) good first series, 8 teams in the 2nd, 4 in the 3rd. You need to be disproportionally more valuable as the tournament goes deeper, otherwise you’re just another of the crowd. So in that sense, I feel like riding the hot hand is justified.
It’s not quite like the regular season in which it really shouldn’t matter which games you win given the same number of wins. Good article, though, Mike.
Posted by MarkK from Maryland on 06/12/09 at 10:39 AM ET
Fixed, and I’m going to the box to feel shame.
And then you go free.
Posted by Incognetis from Exile in Alabama on 06/12/09 at 10:44 AM ET
I don’t know where people have been but Malkin had more points than Crosby against Philly. And Crosby only had three more points in the Washington series. The Finals are the biggest stage and Malkin has over a point per game versus Detroit. I’d say he is topping the list for Conn Smythe (even though I can’t stand the guy, you can’t deny his credentials .
If the Pens lose, I think you can only really consider Osgood or Malkin for it
Posted by Matt Fry from Winnipeg on 06/12/09 at 12:01 PM ET
But the media loves to jump on the hot hand
Yeah, but should they not?
What have you done for me lately is EXACTLY right. If it wasn’t, then we’d all agree with PuckStopsHere and say that Osgood shouldn’t get it because of his regular season.
To me, by your math equation, even if 3+3+3+1=10, I would take 2+2+3+2, because consistency is key here, for me.
If you get 30 points in the first three rounds and are shut out completely in the finals, should you get the Smythe, even if you still have the greatest point total in the playoffs?
Or for that matter, can’t you make a case that Ovechkin should get it by virtue of the fact that he’s STILL in the top five and he’s been gone for two rounds? THAT’s impressive!
Posted by Garth on 06/12/09 at 01:02 PM ET
You have to weight the last round higher than the others because the competition is greater. And Detroit’s defense is far superior to Carolina and Washington’s.
Speaking of which, since Mike Green will likely take the Norris trophy this year, compare his stats (he only played 13 games) to Lidstrom’s first 13 games.
Lidstrom was hands down better. And his team won. But I digress ...
Anyway, the Conn Smythe should go to the player who plays the best in the later rounds where the competition is better.
Posted by johnny 2 in kalamazoo on 06/12/09 at 01:12 PM ET
If the Pens lose, I think you can only really consider Osgood or Malkin for it
I think if Pitt wins then Malkin is the only choice, but I don’t think he should win over Osgood or Zetterberg if Detroit wins.
Zetterberg won it as much for his defensive play as his offensive play last year, and he’s only a little behind his points total this year while he’s been even BETTER defensively this year than last. If Detroit wins, I think it’s a tossup between Ozzie and Zetterberg.
As good as Malkin has been, if Detroit wins I just don’t think he’s been SO good to transcend being on the losing team and winning it over the likes of Ozzie of Zetterberg.
Posted by Garth on 06/12/09 at 01:19 PM ET
Unless Crosby has a Messier-like game, I don’t see him winning the trophy if Pittsburgh wins. Sure, Crosby has scored a bunch of points in previous series, but has been contained, for the most part, in the finals. Players who win the Conn Smythe don’t have an un-Conn Smythe like final series.
Posted by UMFan from Colorado on 06/12/09 at 05:36 PM ET
Honestly how could you possibly think that Crosby tied Malkin in the Carolina series? Malkin was absolutely incredible in that series.
Here is your new math equation
Crosby 3+3+2+1=9
Malkin 3+2+4+2=11
Posted by Ray from Peterborough on 06/12/09 at 06:44 PM ET
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Smythe. You know, with an ‘e’.
Posted by shep on 06/12/09 at 10:30 AM ET