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When Do You Hit The Panic Button?
by Mike Chen on 10/16/08 at 01:19 PM ET
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With the Blackhawks ditching Denis Savard just a handful of games into the season, it looks like teams are already freaking out about slow starts. There’s the old axiom that you can’t win the Stanley Cup in the first few weeks of the season but you sure can lose it.
I think that depends on your point of view and the context of the wins or losses. If you’re .500 a few weeks into the season but winning on lucky bounces and miraculous goaltending, there are reasons for worry. If you’re .500 because of injuries or bad breaks, it’s probably less of a concern.
For the Hawks, this might have been a premeditated hit. Whispers of Savard’s potential head-on-the-chopping-block have been around for months, and the fact that Joel Quenville was immediately handed the keys to the driver’s seat tells me something else was at play.
What about the other teams? Are the Ducks going to throw Randy Carlyle under the bus and blow up the team? I don’t think so, but this is generally the timeline I use for underachieving teams:
0-5 games: A strong start is preferable but losses aren’t insurmountable. The key here is to develop good habits and trend the right way. On the other hand, you’ll see warning signs here.
5-10 games: A reason to worry. If the inital funk hasn’t started to wear off, you could put yourself behind the 8-ball fast. More importantly, it shows that bad habits are lingering and could turn into a systemic issue. A good win streak can make people forget the bad start.
10-15 games: Strong concerns start here. If you’re already 5-10 games below .500, it can be extremely difficult—though not impossible—to get back over the hump. More importantly, the losses start to linger in the minds of players and fans. Whispers of moves begin and players begin squeezing the proverbial stick too tightly.
15-20 games: It’s not time to panic yet, but GMs have to seriously look at their options. Why are bad habits continuing? Is it the locker room? Is it the coaching? At this point, bad luck (minus severe injuries to star players) should have averaged out with good bounces and simply can’t be an excuse anymore. Heads will roll and a turnaround must start, otherwise the season’s essentially over.
20-25 games: It’s do or die. At this point, you have to either begin the slow crawl back to respectability or you start planning for next season. Trades, firings, and all other personnel moves are free game. However, moves must be made cautiously to benefit the bigger picture.
This is obviously a rough timeline and each situation is based on its own unique context. The key here is habits and trends—what are the bad habits that are causing the losses and what are the team trends regarding response to adversity? Those two things can basically define whether or not a team will find its groove and get back on its feet.
Dale Tallon didn’t have the patience for this timeline. Will Brian Burke? We’ll see.
Filed in: NHL | Mike Chen's Hockey Blog | Permalink
Tags: Brian+Burke, Dale+Tallon, Denis+Savard, Joen+Quennville, Randy+Carlyle,
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1)Perhaps the hawks will be trend setters here and we might see a few more dismissals before October is over? Here are the guys who would appear to be most at risk if The Chicago Formula” is employed:
John Stevens- The Flyers are winless after 4 games with only a loser point in the standings so far. Expectations are always high in Philly. Will Holmgren/Snyder be patient?
Barry Melrose- So far the mullet is with out a win in 4 tries. Losing in OT at home to the Islanders is not going to enamor him with management. They gave him a top heavy team, so should he be blamed? Probably not, but he will be if they continue to fail
Tony Granato- Tony’s second stint in Colorado. Until beating winless Philly last night the Av’s were also without a win in 3 tries. If last night isn’t a trend how long will the second coming of Granato last?
Dave Tippett- We thought he was on the hot seat last year, but ownership fired the GM instead. Many including us see them as a Cup contender. They got blown out by lowly St Louis last night and have only 1 win in 4 games. Is it time to make a move in Big D?
Randy Carlyle: The 2007 Cup winning coach is 0-4 and have looked awful. Will GM Burke allow his team to fall further back? Has the team tuned out Randy and a new voice needed?
Mike Keenan: His team is 1-1-1, but he’s always seemingly on the brink so we had to include him on the list. ; )
2) Do we believe any of these guys will be fired in the next week or so? Probably not, but the Savard firing does hi-lite the tenuousness that these guys have to their positions. No head coach can say their job is ever safe. Its win or get fired. Sometimes you’re given a chance to work things out, sometimes you’re out after 4 games and 2 losses.
Posted by Faux Rumors from Globally- Here, there, Everywhere on 10/17/08 at 12:08 PM ET