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Who’s Still In It?

by Mike Chen on 12/23/08 at 05:36 PM ET
Comments (3)

I’ve often said that the Christmas break (or the days after Festivus, for you true believers) is the turning point in the NHL season. Before that time, teams still have a chance of making a come back. Come December 24-25, all teams are somewhere in the 30-35 games-played mark and large gaps in the standings become too much of a chore to overcome.

With that in mind, who’s still got hope? I used to say that .500 teams at Christmas are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. However, I’ve tweaked that a little bit this season because the log jams are so immense, especially in the Western Conference. Instead of being .500 (having the same amount of points as games played), I’ll change that to say that if your team is within two points of .500, you’re still in it.

Let’s look at the bubble teams with just a few hours to go before tonight’s games:

(Apologies for the semi-funky formatting...I still haven’t figured out how to do tables in the KK engine.)

Eastern Conference
Team GP Pts
8. Buffalo 34 37
9. Carolina 34 37
10. Florida 32 34
11. Toronto 33 34
12. Ottawa 31 29
13. Atlanta 33 26
14. Tampa Bay 32 23
15. NY Islanders 33 23
* = Division Leader

Western Conference
Team GP Pts
7. Phoenix 34 36
8. Nashville 32 35
9. Minnesota 32 34
10. Edmonton 32 33
11. Colorado 33 33
12. Columbus 33 32
13. Los Angeles 33 32
14. Dallas 32 31
15. St. Louis 33 29
* = Division Leader

What does this tell us? Well, you Senators fans that are asking Santa for a double-shot of Jack Daniels for Christmas, you might want to hold off. As tumultuous as the Senators season has been, they’re not quite out of it yet. Atlanta, Tampa Bay, the fun folks on Long Island...there’s this kid named John Tavares you might want to watch. I hear he’s playing in some sort of tournament right now.

Out west, just about every team is in it. St. Louis is out using this standard, but they’re too busy sorting out their players vs. coach fracas anyways, so they probably won’t notice. As for those Dallas Stars? Perhaps the exorcism of Sean Avery is what they need. That, and the fact that Marty Turco has started to play like a professional goalie again rather than a drunk beer leaguer. For the teams out west, the issue doesn’t become points as much as it is competition—with so many teams to leapfrog and so many three-point games, you’re never in full control of your destiny barring an undefeated run to the end of the season.

Usually, the playoff races start to really get traction and excitement come March. I think it’s safe to say that the real scratching and clawing begins now.

Oh, and one scary fact—at 55 points in 33 games, San Jose can go 22-26-1 and still get 100 points. The scarier fact is that the Sharks could finish the season with a bazillion points and no one would care unless the team gets to the Stanley Cup Final.

Filed in: NHL | Mike Chen's Hockey Blog | Permalink
Tags: Standings,

Comments

Mike, a very timely article. Thanks for the list.

IMHO the East and West present very different scenarios.

In the West, pretty much everybody from Phoenix to St Louis has a credible shot at a playoff spot. If one of them makes a trade, has an injury, even a good or a bad week, the cards can be shuffled.

The East is a different picture.

Obviously Buffalo and Carolina are going to battle down to the wire.

Pete DeBoer is doing everything he can to get the Panthers into the post season for the first time in this decade.

Toronto , per Brian Burke and Cliff Fletcher, is going to rebuild, and Ottawa is perched on the borderline between making a run (and not much else), and folding the tent.

Cheers and Happy Holidays.

Posted by davetherave from Ottawa, Canada on 12/23/08 at 06:13 PM ET

Agreed completely. The back end of the East is awful this season. The difference from 8th to 15th is 14 points. In the west its only 6. In the East you’re either a playoff team or you’re not(except for the 9 spot which may stay close), but in the West everyone in still in play. Kind of makes me wonder whats going to happen down the stretch. These differences might get a lot larger as these teams start to realize their season is over. That could lead to easy games for Eastern teams, and with the unbalanced schedule, some teams might end their season off playing 10 games against jokes while others play 10 games against good teams.
So much for all that talk about “Parity” in the league.

Posted by Kevin from Pittsburgh on 12/23/08 at 07:07 PM ET

I am a Dallas Stars fan through and through but I AM NOT A MARTY TURCO FAN. I loved your comment about him. I don’t think he really realizes how bad he has been and likes to place blame elsewhere. Well, tonight things went well, it appears so maybe he will get back on track for good.

Posted by StarsRule on 12/23/08 at 11:03 PM ET

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About Mike Chen’s Hockey Blog

Mike Chen prides himself in being the only hockey writer integrating puck discussion with both Morrissey quotes and Star Wars references. Since 2004, he’s blogged about all things hockey and currently contributes to FoxSports.com, the Battle of California, and RotoRob.

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