On the Forecheck
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A good start down a long road
by Forechecker on 02/09/09 at 01:39 PM ET
Comments (1)
Two short weeks ago, all seemed lost; an out-of-control spiral into the All-Star Break saw the Nashville Predators battered, beaten, and humiliated at times. If you follow the projections over at Sports Club Stats, their chance of making the playoffs for the fifth straight season dipped as low as 13% after that 3-1 loss to the Devils on January 19.
But now? A recent 5-2 stretch has brought them back into the Western Conference playoff mix, and the four-game homestand which starts tomorrow night against Detroit is the next step along the road to the postseason. Interestingly, none of the four opponents coming up (Red Wings, Blues, Bruins & Senators) are among the teams they’re trying to catch; at this point, it’s always nicer to know that your victory is also a critical loss for the opponent.
So realistically, what do we need to see out of these next four games, as the Preds continue climbing their way up through the standings?
1. Results - no matter how it gets done, Nashville needs to garner at least 6 points out of these 4 games. The Blues and Senators are teams that they should beat at home, and they’ll need to spring an upset out of either one of Detroit or Boston games, or at least take them to OT. One hopeful note there is that the Bruins will be coming to town after having played in New Jersey the night before.
2. Rewards - the decision on which players to dress and which to scratch has been constrained of late by injuries to Wade Belak and Jordin Tootoo, but even once both are ready for action, I’m not sure they deserve to play. Having a knuckle-chucker who plays 5-10 minutes a night is a luxury this team simply can’t afford right now. They have to focus on winning each and every game down the stretch. Tootoo in particular has taken a major step backwards this season after he looked like a 15-20 goal scorer last year.
3. Discipline - the quality of the Predators’ special teams has remained consistent over the years; great on the PK, frustratingly bad on the power play. While neither of those is likely to shift without a major personnel or coaching change, a focus on drawing penalties and not taking them might provide immediate dividends. The table below lists some of the high-level special teams information for each team; how many opportunities they’ve had on the PP and PK, conversion percentages, goals for and against, and ultimately, a Special Teams Goal Differential that nets out the results of PP and PK work. The fact that Nashville has been on the PK 25 times more than on the power play is perhaps the most “fixable” aspect of their play right now.
| Special Teams Opportunities and Goals For & Against | ||||||||||
| Team | PP Opp | PK Opp | PP-PK Diff | PP % | PPGF | SHGA | PK % | PPGA | SHGF | ST GL Diff |
| San Jose Sharks | 237 | 185 | 52 | 23.2 | 55 | 7 | 85.4 | 27 | 8 | 29 |
| Minnesota Wild | 219 | 181 | 38 | 21 | 46 | 2 | 86.7 | 24 | 3 | 23 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 235 | 220 | 15 | 20.4 | 48 | 1 | 85 | 33 | 5 | 19 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 202 | 269 | -67 | 24.3 | 49 | 0 | 83.3 | 45 | 13 | 17 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 228 | 225 | 3 | 27.6 | 63 | 1 | 77.8 | 50 | 3 | 15 |
| Boston Bruins | 210 | 199 | 11 | 23.3 | 49 | 4 | 82.4 | 35 | 4 | 14 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 223 | 218 | 5 | 21.5 | 48 | 4 | 81.2 | 41 | 8 | 11 |
| St. Louis Blues | 232 | 236 | -4 | 21.6 | 50 | 5 | 82.2 | 42 | 5 | 8 |
| New Jersey Devils | 188 | 211 | -23 | 18.6 | 35 | 2 | 82 | 38 | 10 | 5 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 248 | 238 | 10 | 16.5 | 41 | 4 | 82.8 | 41 | 9 | 5 |
| Calgary Flames | 239 | 228 | 11 | 18.8 | 45 | 11 | 85.5 | 33 | 3 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 225 | 228 | -3 | 18.7 | 42 | 4 | 82.5 | 40 | 4 | 2 |
| Ottawa Senators | 215 | 216 | -1 | 18.1 | 39 | 3 | 82.4 | 38 | 4 | 2 |
| New York Islanders | 213 | 231 | -18 | 17.8 | 38 | 4 | 82.2 | 41 | 9 | 2 |
| Washington Capitals | 229 | 259 | -30 | 23.6 | 54 | 6 | 79.2 | 54 | 6 | 0 |
| New York Rangers | 222 | 216 | 6 | 14.9 | 33 | 13 | 86.6 | 29 | 7 | -2 |
| Dallas Stars | 230 | 203 | 27 | 17.4 | 40 | 1 | 77.8 | 45 | 2 | -4 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 242 | 201 | 41 | 16.9 | 41 | 6 | 79.1 | 42 | 3 | -4 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 228 | 244 | -16 | 18.9 | 43 | 3 | 79.1 | 51 | 5 | -6 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 213 | 271 | -58 | 22.1 | 47 | 6 | 81.2 | 51 | 3 | -7 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 219 | 205 | 14 | 17.4 | 38 | 4 | 78 | 45 | 4 | -7 |
| Nashville Predators | 215 | 240 | -25 | 13.5 | 29 | 5 | 84.6 | 37 | 6 | -7 |
| Florida Panthers | 201 | 211 | -10 | 16.4 | 33 | 7 | 81.5 | 39 | 4 | -9 |
| Phoenix Coyotes | 233 | 209 | 24 | 13.7 | 32 | 2 | 79 | 44 | 4 | -10 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 243 | 231 | 12 | 16.5 | 40 | 10 | 80.1 | 46 | 4 | -12 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 219 | 204 | 15 | 19.6 | 43 | 4 | 74 | 53 | 1 | -13 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 230 | 266 | -36 | 16.1 | 37 | 5 | 80.8 | 51 | 3 | -16 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 237 | 222 | 15 | 16.9 | 40 | 7 | 76.1 | 53 | 2 | -18 |
| Atlanta Thrashers | 220 | 227 | -7 | 19.1 | 42 | 9 | 75.8 | 55 | 2 | -20 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 226 | 227 | -1 | 12 | 27 | 9 | 80.6 | 44 | 5 | -21 |
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About On the Forecheck
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis. Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey.
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Furious February
The Preds host 10 home games during the month of February, including two games each against the Phoenix Coyotes, St. Louis Blues and, yes, the Detroit Red Wings. For discounted Nashville Predators tickets, including steeply discounted Ticketmaster fees, to these or any other upcoming home games, take advantage of this special offer, and use the special offer code "predators".
One of these days you people will figure out that Tootoo is NOT a scoring forward. Just because he did in the WHL doesnt mean anything; for example Kurt Maltby and Darren McCarty of the Wings were 50 goal scorers in JR’s ......Tootoo is an agitator who picks his fights, nothing more, nothing less.
Posted by Yzerman19 from Nashville on 02/09/09 at 04:39 PM ET