On the Forecheck
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A little less conversation, a little more action please!
by Forechecker on 01/07/09 at 12:38 PM ET
Comments (11)
How does one sum up the mighty Nashville Predators offense these days? Perhaps the late John McKay, coach of the 2nd-most hapless team in NFL history, the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, said it best when asked about his team’s execution: “I think it’s a good idea.”
Execution (or more properly the lack thereof) was the key in last night’s awful 2-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche, considering the fact that Nashville took 70 Total Shots to Colorado’s 38, a margin that genuinely reflects the flow of the game. The Preds buzzed around the zone and fired plenty of pucks, but fully two-thirds of them were either blocked or sent wide of the goal.
Ordinarily one might shake off such an effort, calling it an inevitable fluke along the 82-game marathon that is the NHL regular season. Given the struggles this offense has shown over the last month, however, it’s clear that fundamental problems are dogging this team, which has few options available to address them.
Even with the return of Steve Sullivan providing some reason for optimism, frustration is mounting with what is seen as inaction in the face of long-term problems. Check out the following quotes from Barry Trotz:
December 29: While discussing which players would dress on defense, Trotz was quoted as saying that he was “not happy with one of his veterans.” Even through last night, however, none of the top five defenseman has had to sit out a game.
January 1, after a 2-1 loss at home to Vancouver: “One of the things we have to look at it is that we have some guys in Milwaukee going really good and we’re going to have to shake some things up here,’’ Trotz said. “We’ve got to win some hockey games. I think this is a real important stretch from now until the all-star break for us.’‘
January 2, prior to losing a late lead to Calgary the next day: ”...we need to turn things around … we are looking at (Milwaukee) and if we are not better tomorrow we will look at it even harder.”
January 5: “I might bring one, I might not bring any, but I am tending to say if we are going to bring anybody we will bring two guys because both of them have earned the right to get another opportunity and other guys have fallen into the pack,” (just hours later, only one player, Ryan Jones, was recalled from Milwaukee).
January 6, after losing 2-1 to Colorado: “I think (Santorelli’s) time is coming around the corner,” Trotz said. “There’s no question, unless we can get this turned around in a hurry.”
As the poets say, Barry, $&%! or get off the pot already!
With word this morning that Scott Nichol won’t be back soon from the concussion he suffered December 9 against Vancouver, there is a gaping hole at center; Rich Peverley (2G, 7A in 27 games) has failed to provide scoring punch, and appears woefully tentative handling and passing the puck in the offensive zone. David Legwand is on pace for a 36 point season, even underperforming my limited offensive expectations.
Given the financial constraints that David Poile has to operate within, it’s obvious that swinging a headline-grabbing trade is exceedingly unlikely (would Doug Weight fit the bill, however? Pretty please?). Even if such a deal were possible, it’s only prudent to give your top prospect a shot before exploring those options.
The path appears clear; get Mike Santorelli up here, put him in a position to contribute offensively by putting him on the 2nd line alongside either Martin Erat or J.P. Dumont, and stick David Legwand on a checking line, where he can still provide value to the team. Rotate your underperforming wingers through the press box until they earn a regular spot in the lineup.
Many would say that a mediocre team like the one we’re seeing these days should pack it in and go for a higher pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. With the Predators, however, competing on the ice and making the playoffs are crucial to building a fan base, achieving revenue sharing goals, and hitting the break-even point financially. This isn’t a team that can afford to bleed out for a couple years for a total rebuild, and frankly, they don’t need to. The core of the squad is solid, mostly young, and affordable. Depth is what this team is lacking, and even a healthy Steve Sullivan won’t cure that problem alone. Expecting him to do so is placing far too great a burden on that tender back.
Filed in: Nashville Predators | On the Forecheck | Permalink
Tags: barry+trotz, mike+santorelli,
Comments
I wouldn’t mind seeing Erat, Legwand, Dumont and even the almighty Captain Arnott sat for a game or two. The obvious guys to sit are Bonk, Fiddler, Tootoo, and Pihlstrom.
Posted by PredNeck from Hicktown on 01/07/09 at 01:16 PM ET
Agree with PredNeck. Santorelli shouldn’t come up and play on a line with Erat because Erat needs to be sitting for a game or two. Leggy too.
I have a hard time with Tootoo and Peverly. Some of the best scoring chances in the otherwise horrible 2nd period were generated by those two. They have their moments, and I haven’t noticed any horrible breakdowns on defense from them.
Posted by pwnicholson from Nashville, TN on 01/07/09 at 01:43 PM ET
I almost threw my remote last night when Tootoo came down the right wing with plenty of room to shoot, then tried that too-cute no-look pass to Pihlstrom, who was coming down the middle with a defender draped all over him.
Toots has a good slapper, he needs to fire away in that situation and let Antti battle for a rebound. I hate 2-on-1’s that don’t result in a shot.
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 01/07/09 at 01:49 PM ET
Guys, seriously… haven’t you given up on the dream of the Predators being in Nashville long-term yet? They can’t spend the money to be consistently competitive, and even when they were exceptional (06 sort of, 07 definitely) they couldn’t crack the top 22 in attendance. Absent the long term (5-8 year) dedication to consistently spend near the cap and absorb horrific losses in the attempt to establish a team to see who shows up, I don’t see how it happens. 2009 attendance is at the second lowest per-game average in the franchises history right now.
It’s almost unfair to the team and the organization to expect them to show signs of improvement, or even to expect them to be legitimately competitive night in and night out… or even 75% of the time. I mean, hell, when the internally set payroll limit for a roster player is 4.5 mil (no-one on the team makes more, and when 4 guys all happen to make EXACTLY that much I think it’s more than a coincidence)... well, there you go.
Granted, spending money isn’t some kind of instant win pill (hello Toronto, Philly, the Rangers, Washington, etc.) but man. In Forechecker’s post he says “I almost threw my remote last night when Tootoo came down the right wing with plenty of room to shoot, then tried…”, but he’s complaining about the wrong thing. See, the problem isn’t that Tootoo made a dumb decision, it’s that Jordin freaking Tootoo is even in the position where he has to make an offensive decision that matters.
Posted by HockeyinHD on 01/07/09 at 02:26 PM ET
HockeyinHD, there’s so much there to pick apart, but I’ll just take two. First, I’m not sure where you’re getting your attendance figures from, but anybody with even a passing familiarity with hockey in Nashville knows you can’t compare year-to-date attendance figures with total-season averages from years past. The 2nd half of the schedule always sees consistently larger crowds.
Secondly, there are other paths to NHL success than merely opening the pocket book. Look at the last 3 years prior to the Great Lockout to see whether big-$$$ teams dominated; not a single team made it to the Conference Finals more than once in that span.
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 01/07/09 at 05:18 PM ET
14,788
13,288
13,157
Lockout
14,428
15,259 (the 110 point year)
14,910
14,301 (the pace so far).
I don’t see where the growth is there, absent the one exceptional winning season. Now, I’ll grant that there is a vague at best correllation between payroll and playoff success, but the correllation between payroll and REGULAR SEASON success is rather more obvious (average the payrolls of playoff v. non-playoff teams some time)... and it’s regular season success that’s going to most effectively drive immediate ticket sales in a situation like Nashville’s. Counting on some kind of out of the blue Cup run to drive support is too little, too late because it’s the regular season revenue which drives the vast majority of teams plus sides of the ledger.
Now, as far as second half attendance goes… hey, you follow the team much more closely than I do so I don’t see any reason for what you suggest to not be the case. Still, after 18 games at their current pace the Preds would have to draw an average of almost 15,400 for their last 23 home games to equal last year’s home average. Absent a playoff push will the team draw that level of support? It seems unlikely considering their best year ever for attendance when they were GREAT was less than 15,400, but maybe the pricing structure is different or there are some other imporvements which make the tickets move more easily.
I guess I just don’t get what the expectations you guys have for your team are. Only 2 NHL teams spend less than the Preds are this year cap-wise, LA and Atlanta. Nashville is one whole point behind LA and 6 points and two games up on Atlanta. Seems like they’re right about where they should be, all things considered. Hell, when you toss in Sullivan’s 3+ mil deal that the Preds haven’t gotten anything for in years their on-ice teams payroll is really only around 43 mil, maybe the cheapest in the whole league.
Had Nashville added 8-10 million worth of actual NHL talent to their team in a non-idiotic manner it’s awfully hard to make a case that they wouldn’t be a top 5 or 6 Western conference team right now. Maybe not exactly a playoff favorite, but still a 40+ win club.
And that 8-10 mil worth of actual NHL player(s) would only drive the Preds cap number to 51-53, still well shy of the cap limit.
Posted by HockeyinHD on 01/07/09 at 07:41 PM ET
I don’t have access to my spreadsheets on attendance at the moment, but taking 2007 as an example, 8 of the 10 crowds that topped 17K occured during February-April. Again, anyone familiar with Nashville knows this trend. My best guess is that we’ll see attendance rise by 200-500 per game this year when it’s all done, which is a pretty good job considering the state of the economy, the negative press from the Del Biaggio situation, and the defection of Radulov which hamstrung the offense.
It may offend you that there is NHL hockey in Nashville, and that the fans here actually care how the team performs and what the front office does about it, but all I can tell you is to get over it. The Predators aren’t going anywhere soon.
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 01/07/09 at 08:36 PM ET
Depends on what you mean by ‘soon’. Next year? No. Three years? Probably not. Five years? They’re gone. The only reason they aren’t gone already is because Gary Bettman is an idiot and hates Balsillie, while warmly embracing DelBaggio.
As far as my being ‘offended’ by either hockey in Nashville or hockey fans in Nashville… please. This isn’t a Nashville thing, it’s an ‘NHL team in a region which isn’t going to support the team well enough for them to ever be consistently competitive’ thing.
Atlanta.
Phoenix.
Nashville.
Columbus.
All four teams are in areas where they just aren’t ever in a million years going to get the level of attendance which will in turn allow them to be consistently competitive financially. Even with a cap. Oh sure, one of the teams off that list might jump up and win a playoff round, or maybe even two, but as long as they are drawing <15k fans a night there’s no way an owner could afford to keep pumping in 50+ million a year in salaries… and at that point, what’s really the purpose of the franchise? They can’t make money because they are forced to spend 40+ mil a year on a .500 team, they can’t win because they can’t afford to spend 50+ each year on a consistent playoff team much less the front office guys who can make that happen, and they can’t load up on youth because very few teams make those multiple #1’s for players deals anymore.
With a salary cap (and more accurately, a salary -floor-) teams can’t just sell off all their impending UFAs year after year.and harvest #1s from contenders. First, the contenders don’t have the cap space to afford the acquisitions and secondly, keeping the picks and the cheap players they can acquire becomes more of a need.
Honestly, I’d like the Preds (or any of the other three) teams chances if there wasn’t a salary floor. With it, they are screwed.
Posted by HockeyinHD on 01/07/09 at 10:19 PM ET
Dallas, Carolina and Tampa Bay would seem to contradict your argument; in a decent sized, non-traditional market, a playoff run can load up the bandwagon and foster a long-term fanbase. The alternative is to grow the game over the course of time, a slow process which, unfortunately, offends some folks in traditional cities.
Feel free to check back in five years.
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 01/07/09 at 10:45 PM ET
A playoff run only works if the team is able to sustain the run with subsequent successes. Dallas has an owner who has always spent a ton of cash, and that’s been demonstrated by the Stars fairly consistent performance over the years as at least playoff-worthy teams. Carolina’s a moderately horrendous example of your point, since two years after they were in the Cup Finals the first time they were drawing 12,330 a night, and after WINNING the Cup in 2006 they’re down over 2,000 fans a game from their post-Cup peak of 17ish thousand. Success unsustained has no impact on long term growth in non-traitional markets.
Don’t get me wrong, hockey in places like Carolina, Tampa and a few others are pretty tenuous ventures, really… they’re just quite a bit more solid than the four places I named. Heck, you could probably toss the Isles into that mix too, although that’s largely an idiot owner thing more than anything else.
Tampa’s a whole different ball of wax. Hockey works there (insofar as it does) because Florida is such a winter destination for the northern states… and even there attendance has dropped precipitously from over 20k a night in 2006 (the season after both their Cup and the Lockout) and #2 in the league to 16,673 now and 19th in the NHL. A couple more years of suckitude and they’ll be back in the 14’s, guaranteed.
A Cup buys a team maybe a year’s worth of time to strike while the iron is hot and really drive interest. A Cup. After one year non-traditional markets start to leak fans quickly. After two-three years they start bleeding out fans like a stuck pig, at least until they fall to their typical water level, ultimately depending on the usual factors (population, wealth, etc) that pin a team in the 14,500-15,500 range in perpetuity… locking in the franchise to a 45ish mil payroll which just keeps things on life support.
I don’t know, maybe in five years having hockey in a city that only draws 15ish thousand fans a night will be enough to keep a team there. It’d be sort of a shame if that was the case, but with the crew running the NHL we have now, who can tell?
Posted by HockeyinHD on 01/07/09 at 11:37 PM ET
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I think that’s everyone’s sentiment at this point. Several of the senior Preds need a night or two to sit and think..
Posted by Codey H. from Nashville, TN on 01/07/09 at 12:45 PM ET