On the Forecheck
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Counting the Crease Crashers
by Forechecker on 11/04/08 at 12:06 PM ET
Comments (5)
If there’s one mantra that NHL coaches love to repeat when discussing their team’s offensive gameplan, it has to be the one about driving traffic to the front of the net, in order to battle for loose pucks and score “ugly goals”. This year, rebound opportunities are becoming particularly fashionable given Todd McLellan’s emphasis on shots from the defense in San Jose, a lesson learned during his days behind the Detroit bench.
But which teams are fighting (and winning) those battles so far this year? While the NHL doesn’t officially record a Rebounding statistic, one can be derived by sifting through the Play-By-Play files. For the purposes of this exercise, I’ve defined a Rebound Shot as any attempted shot (Shot on Goal, Goal, Missed or Blocked Shot) attempted within 3 seconds of a shot by the same team that was saved by the goaltender, without any other intervening events (like a faceoff or turnover).
So let’s take a look at the numbers…
UPDATE: In the initial posting, I forgot to exclude shootout goals. Data has been corrected.
| Offensive Rebounding Per Team | ||||
| Team | Shots Saved | Rebound Shots | Off Reb % | Goals |
| Colorado Avalanche | 307 | 41 | 13.4% | 8 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 278 | 37 | 13.3% | 7 |
| Atlanta Thrashers | 324 | 41 | 12.7% | 7 |
| San Jose Sharks | 394 | 49 | 12.4% | 11 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 275 | 33 | 12.0% | 4 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 225 | 25 | 11.1% | 7 |
| Nashville Predators | 272 | 30 | 11.0% | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 287 | 31 | 10.8% | 5 |
| Calgary Flames | 331 | 35 | 10.6% | 6 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 295 | 31 | 10.5% | 8 |
| Boston Bruins | 335 | 35 | 10.4% | 3 |
| Washington Capitals | 292 | 30 | 10.3% | 6 |
| St. Louis Blues | 207 | 21 | 10.1% | 5 |
| Ottawa Senators | 288 | 28 | 9.7% | 5 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 319 | 31 | 9.7% | 10 |
| New Jersey Devils | 320 | 31 | 9.7% | 10 |
| Florida Panthers | 291 | 28 | 9.6% | 3 |
| New York Islanders | 335 | 32 | 9.6% | 5 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 328 | 31 | 9.5% | 6 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 257 | 24 | 9.3% | 8 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 314 | 28 | 8.9% | 7 |
| Minnesota Wild | 236 | 21 | 8.9% | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 275 | 24 | 8.7% | 2 |
| Phoenix Coyotes | 244 | 21 | 8.6% | 3 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 375 | 32 | 8.5% | 6 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 266 | 22 | 8.3% | 5 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 401 | 31 | 7.7% | 7 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 346 | 26 | 7.5% | 9 |
| New York Rangers | 405 | 29 | 7.2% | 5 |
| Dallas Stars | 306 | 19 | 6.2% | 3 |
| 9128 | 897 | 9.8% | 177 | |
| Data from games through November 3, 2008 | ||||
For each team, I’ve listed the total shots taken that have been saved by the opposing goaltender (in other words, how many opportunities for rebounds are available), the number of rebound shots taken, and the number of goals scored on rebound shots.
Check out those Flying Frenchmen from Montreal! Clearly their high skill level up front is being complemented by a yeoman-like work ethic, and it’s paying off as they are currently tied for 2nd in Goals Per Game with Detroit at 3.5. Colorado, of course, has Ryan Smyth banging away in front, so it’s no surprise to see them listed highly, and the Predators and Sharks both benefit from trigger happy defensemen.
At the bottom of these standings we find everyone’s favorite early-season implosion, the Dallas Stars. The Red Wings and Rangers are finding other paths to success than banging away for rebounds at the present time, but I wonder if Detroit will remain near the bottom here for long.
I looked at this issue midway through last season, and this year, I plan to keep updating the numbers so we can follow this important facet of the game (that is, if I don’t fry my computer, like I did last February!). Check back later today for a look at the Defensive side of the equation…
Filed in: NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
Tags: rebounds,
Comments
Great question, Nate; unfortunately the best people to answer that type of question would be the video assistants of the various teams, who break down opponents’ trends…
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 11/04/08 at 12:34 PM ET
I knicked you table and took the number of rebound goals by rebound attempts and the Ducks, Flyers, ‘Hawks and Devils are the “best” at converting the rebound shots into to goals (not really enough data for that but nothing wrong with peeking). Another thought/question is what percentage of goals are rebounds for each team?
Posted by mogen_david from Great Basin on 11/04/08 at 01:13 PM ET
Another thought, is it too early to parse the data by PP and even strength? It would be interesting to see if the order stays the same (I expect the rate to increase during the PP). I’d like to see if some teams are less adept/inclined at crashing the crease (rebound opportunities) at even strength. It might not change but if it’s easy to parse it might be worth a go.
Posted by mogen_david from Great Basin on 11/04/08 at 02:05 PM ET
I popped up a quick Google doc with the PP vs. EV breakdown, feel free to play at your own risk!
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 11/04/08 at 02:16 PM ET
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About On the Forecheck
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis. Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey.
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Good stuff. Those percentages are a bit deceptive. Considering some bottom teams such as Detroit, NY Rangers, and even Toronto have enormous shot volume and decent number of rebounds. By contrast, the top 3 teams have fairly low shot totals. Certainly interesting to see how this plays out.
I’m not especially familiar with the style of a lot of these teams, especially out of the east, but do you have any read if most of the rebounds come from a constant net-front presence or from forwards simply following shots to the net?
Posted by Nate A from Dark side of the moon on 11/04/08 at 12:29 PM ET