On the Forecheck
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Eastern Conference Predictions
by Forechecker on 10/03/08 at 12:29 PM ET
Comments (4)
It’s a game we all play, so here we go with my projections for the Eastern Conference…
The tool that I like to use for this work is called PythagenPuck, and is best outlined in a paper over at Hockey Analytics by Alan Ryder. The basic idea behind PythagenPuck is that the best long-term indicator of team success is the GF/GA ratio. Setting aside the impact of Shootout victories (which don’t fit in the model of regular play), PythagenPuck corresponds to a team’s winning percentage at roughly a 98% degree of accuracy over the course of a regular season. So what I like to do is make my team projections in terms of Goals For and Against per game, and run that through PythagenPuck to come up with expected winning percentages, and thus standings predictions.
Performance in the shootout can act like a wild card here; for Edmonton last season, that factor kept them in the playoff race far longer than they would have otherwise.
So with that being said, let’s get to the picks. First, the Eastern Conference…
1. Montreal Canadiens: Gotta love they way they’ve stocked up for their Centennial Season.
2. Philadelphia Flyers: Scoring depth and solid D makes them a contender.
3. Buffalo Sabres: I was surprised to see Mirtle rank them so highly, then when I ran my numbers, voila! there they were…
4. New Jersey Devils: Does Rolston another good year in him?
5. Pittsburgh Penguins: Those injuries on D will hamper them early on.
6. New York Rangers: In the mix, but with little margin for error.
7. Ottawa Senators: Will the last defenseman to leave Ottawa remember to turn out the lights?
8. Washington Capitals: This will be a fun team to watch, but hanging their season on Jose Theodore is awfully dicey.
9. Carolina Hurricanes: Lots of offense with a porous D; quite common in the East.
10. Tampa Bay Lightning: Expect lots of wild action with the Mullet behind the bench once again.
11. Boston Bruins: If Tim Thomas comes back to earth, they’re toast.
12. Florida Panthers: They may finally play respectable D, but no Jokinen likely means fewer Goals For.
13. Atlanta Thrashers: Mathieu Schneider is a nice addition, but they need more up front.
14. New York Islanders: Does anybody think Rick DiPietro will play out his 15-year contract?
15. Toronto Maple Leafs: OK, Ron Wilson, have we set the bar low enough for you?
Filed in: NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
Comments
hmmm, Pittsburgh’s GA and GF make NOOOOO sense at all.
You say their injuries on D will hurt them, but you give them one of the best GA. I actually agree with this, because the guys they are losing are offensive defenseman and are being replaced with more defensive guys like Sydor and Eaton.
Then you put their GF at 2.75 goals per game. Lets say Malkin gets 50, Sid 40, Sykora 30, Staal 30, Fedotenko 15, Satan 20, Dupuis 15, Kennedy 15, Letang 10, Taffe 10
That puts them at 235 goals, only 5 short of last season with a GF/game of 2.9. And that is only with 10 players counted for. lets say the other 8 avg 2 goals each, thats another 16, giving them 251, giving them a GF per game of 3.13
I’m sorry but I just don’t see the team that went from middle of the pack midway through the season to 2nd in the division without Hossa, Crosby, or Fleury last season not winning this division just because they lost....Malone, Ruutu, Laraque, and adam Hall, but gained Satan, Fedotenko, Cooke, moved Staal back to left wing, and will hopefully have Sid back for this entire season.
Posted by Kevin from Pittsburgh on 10/03/08 at 05:06 PM ET
Where did you get the GF/GA numbers? Are those just your guestimates? Knowing you, i’m sure you got those numbers from somewhere, but probably didn’t just copy/paste from last season’s numbers.
Posted by Paul NIcholson from Nashville, TN on 10/03/08 at 11:10 PM ET
Paul: For the projections I looked at each year’s numbers of the previous two seasons, and made adjustments from there based on personnel changes and other factors involving pig entrails and incense, the details of which I’ll save for another time.
Kevin: With Gonchar and Whitney on the shelf I expect the overall pace of Pens game to slow down, reducing both GF and GA. Their absence should also reduce the goal scoring numbers for the players you mention above, and I wouldn’t count on Crosby, Malkin, and Staal all producing career-best goal scoring years as a projection. I’m not saying that can’t happen, but that’s certainly an optimistic view.
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 10/04/08 at 10:23 AM ET
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Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis. Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey.
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What scares me is, Montreal’s entire season is dependent on Carey Price and him being able to play atleast 60+ games this year, for a guy whos played only what, 20/30 games as a 22 year old?
Its scary, because he crashed in the playoffs against Philli, but played great against Boston. So if hes as consistent as that? Montreal is in for a very eventful season.
Every other pick I agree with except the Rangers, no Jagr, no Shannahan to lead the team, Drury will need to step it up, and step it up large.
And expect the Lightning and the Hurricanes to fight to the death for that last spot.
Posted by Liquidfire3240 from Memphis, TN on 10/03/08 at 02:34 PM ET