On the Forecheck
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Evaluating David Legwand
by Forechecker on 12/04/08 at 04:06 PM ET
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Normally, when a player sets a new games-played record for your franchise, the home fans are ready to toast their hero, and talk about issues like jersey retirement and Hall of Fame possibilities. Tonight, when David Legwand takes the ice in Nashville against the Colorado Avalanche, he’ll instead face a number of critics who portray him as an underachiever, based largely on his #2 overall draft position (behind Vincent Lecavalier) in the 1998 NHL draft, and the lucrative contract extension that he signed just months ago.
A bizarre quote in today’s Tennessean article comes from Barry Trotz, who has been outspoken lately in calling for Leggy to provide more scoring punch:
“Hopefully his legacy has not yet been written,’’ Predators Coach Barry Trotz said. “We’ve seen him mature as a person and a player, but we still need him to produce those point-per-game kinds of numbers.
“He’s going to be here for a long while. He has to become a centerpiece performer, an offensive catalyst.’‘
Now in his 9th full NHL season, Legwand has only breached the 60-point mark once (with 27G, 36A on an offensively stacked 2006-7 team), and boasts a career mark of 0.59 Points Per Game. Is it at all reasonable to expect that he’s now going to develop into an elite offensive performer at this age?
To answer that question, I used the nifty Power Play tool at Hockey-Reference.com, and pulled down all the Point-Per-Game seasons (minimum 40 games played) for forwards over the last 20 years. I then divided them into two buckets; those in a player’s 1st-5th season of NHL play, and afterward. The idea I wanted to test was to see how often a player “matures” into being a top-level offensive talent, as opposed to bursting onto the scene like we’ve seen recently in Sid Crosby and Alex Ovechkin.
The results?
Only the following players failed to top 0.80 points per game early in their career, and blossomed into point-per-game performers later on:
Brian Bradley, who ranged from 0.60-0.73 points per game early on, then topped 1.00 twice in Tampa Bay in the early 90’s.
Daniel Briere, whose best effort in Phoenix (60 pts in 78 games in 2001-2) has been followed with excellent work in Buffalo and Philadelphia.
Jozef Stumpel, whose PPG rate increased each of his first seven seasons in the league.
Martin Straka, who excelled in the late 90’s with Pittsburgh.
Michael Nylander came back from the Great Lockout with the New York Rangers, and became a dangerous offensive threat.
Mike Ribeiro, who topped the Point-Per-Game pace last year in large part due to a fluky 25% shooting percentage.
Olli Jokinen, who has racked up great numbers lately on some awful teams.
Patrick Marleau, another player whose offensive numbers surged in the “New NHL”.
Robert Lang, whose sole point-per-game season came in 2003-4.
So there you have it, nine such cases over the last 20 years, out of the 146 veterans who have achieved the Point-Per-Game hallmark of offensive excellence. Those odds aren’t good, and if the Predators are relying upon Legwand to reach that milestone, I’d say that’s a pretty lousy bet.
Take those 45-50 points, and the solid defensive work that goes along with it, realizing that even with his new deal, Legwand actually fits in reasonably well with other comparably paid centers in their upcoming contracts.
And just give the guy a nice ovation tonight…
Filed in: Nashville Predators | On the Forecheck | Permalink
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