On the Forecheck
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Keep the momentum rolling
by Forechecker on 02/05/09 at 03:57 PM ET
Comments (2)
A nice post-All Star break start by the Predators (3-1) has Nashville back within hailing distance of playoff position, with a critical stretch coming up over the next four days; tonight vs. Anaheim, Friday at Minnesota, and Sunday at Dallas. All three of those opponents are included in the cluster of teams battling for four available playoff spots, so making progress in the playoff race means taking at least 3 points out of these games (considering two are on the road).
One tempting storyline has attributed the Preds’ recent success to the reunion of the Sullivan/Arnott/Dumont line, especially in light of the production of Dumont (3 goals) and Arnott (2 goals) of late. However, you might be surprised to find out that these three, as a line, haven’t actually done much…
| Player | Goals | Saved Shots | Missed Shots | Shots Blocked | Corsi |
| Wade Belak | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Martin Erat | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | +6 |
| David Legwand | 0 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +3 |
| Radek Bonk | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -4 |
| Jason Arnott | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -9 |
| Jordin Tootoo | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -6 |
| Jerred Smithson | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +6 |
| Steve Sullivan | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -26 |
| Patric Hornqvist | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 |
| Ryan Jones | 0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Joel Ward | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -9 |
| Vern Fiddler | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -11 |
| Antti Pihlstrom | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +6 |
| J.P. Dumont | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | -13 |
| Sully/Arnott/Dumont | 1 | 15 | 10 | 9 | -15 |
The table above (data from TimeOnIce.com) shows the results of Even Strength play in the last four games; the Big Line has actually been outscored 3-1 so far, and that Corsi number isn’t encouraging. Now, one could make the case that Sully’s presence opens up opportunities for other players, since even though he hasn’t scored yet, he’s still enough of a threat that he attracts attention from opposing defenses.
The upside, of course, is that if Sullivan does start scoring, that could give Nashville enough offensive punch to hang in the Western Conference playoff chase. Remember, they’re not chasing gazelles, folks; this is a large collection of mediocre teams, where “pretty good” might just be good enough.
Filed in: Nashville Predators, NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
Comments
That result for Sully concerns me too; and considering the brutal stretch of games coming up, I wonder if they’ll cut back a little on his 5-on-5 ice time to both keep him fresh and make the most effective use of his skills (on the PP).
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 02/05/09 at 05:49 PM ET
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About On the Forecheck
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis. Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey.
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That Corsi number for Sully is shocking. I have a feeling he’ll get it going here before long. Despite the fact that he’d been working with the team, in real game-shape condition his season hasn’t really even begun yet.
Posted by AJ in Nashville from Nashville, TN on 02/05/09 at 04:11 PM ET