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Opening a six-pack after a loss

In light of that disappointing 5-3 loss last night against Detroit, here is a six-pack of thoughts on the state of the Nashville Predators:

1. The Preds have typically been over-loaded with defensive (read: limited offensively, but hard-working) forwards, but Joel Ward is clearly separating himself as a two-way player from the rest of the pack.  Among the Preds who are eligible for Unrestricted Free Agency this summer, only he and Greg Zanon have made their case for another contract.

2. Speaking of upcoming UFA’s, Toronto GM Brian Burke has made it clear that Nik Antropov has no future with the Maple Leafs.  Submitted for your Nashville Predators Question of the Week: Should the Preds look at the big Russian for some offensive punch down the stretch?

3. Pekka Rinne continues to play well, but unlike a certain Tennessean columnist who just started to attend Predators games once again, I wouldn’t proclaim him the #1 guy and ride him down the stretch just yet.  The NHL in recent years has been littered with young goalies who got off to great starts and flamed out during their second tour around the league, as Paul McCann noted during his Hockeybuzz Radio show Monday.  This team is still going to need Dan Ellis if they’re going to make a playoff run.

4. For Nashville fans who, like me, were surprised to hear generic ESPN programming on 106.7 FM during the afternoon this week, the station has switched entirely over to “network programming”, meaning all ESPN all the time (yawn).  Thom Abraham is moving over to 560 AM (WNSR) starting next Monday for a weekday noon-3:00 show, which is good news for Preds fans; Abraham can talk up the game of hockey better than most in the Nashville market, and along with the extended pre-game shows and the aforementioned HockeyBuzz Radio, WNSR is establishing themselves as a major source of hockey talk in Nashville.

5. It’s time to face an unfortunate truth: while it’s great to see Steve Sullivan on the ice again, he’s just not able to make a positive contribution at even strength right now.  He needs to have his EV ice time severely limited, and focus more on special teams play (which makes more sense than dressing a fighter to skate 5-8 minutes a game). Take a look at the following Even Strength numbers from Behind the Net:

 NAMEPOSGPTOI/60CORSI+-ON/60RATING
WADE BELAKD 405.3-2.80.281.13
RYAN JONESLW2810.68-7.80.40.78
SHEA WEBERD 5216.487.200.78
KEVIN KLEIND 3411.64.6-0.150.78
GREG ZANOND 5315.54-10.2-0.150.51
JOEL WARDRW5011.3-3.8-0.110.5
JEAN-PIERRE DUMONTRW5313.114.1-0.170.44
VILLE KOISTINEND 2812-9.500.4
JASON ARNOTTC 4713.344.1-0.290.32
ANTTI PIHLSTROMLW3011.3514.8-0.180.28
MARTIN ERATRW5013.392.8-0.63-0.17
DAVID LEGWANDC 5312.85-1.1-0.62-0.19
SCOTT NICHOLC 277.98-17.6-0.28-0.21
JERRED SMITHSONC 5310.29-8.4-0.66-0.23
RADEK BONKC 5111.87-8.2-0.69-0.3
RYAN SUTERD 5316.576.4-0.68-0.32
VERNON FIDDLERC 499.85-5-0.87-0.45
JORDIN TOOTOORW4511.47-0.5-0.93-0.49
PATRIC HORNQVISTLW1910.52-1.8-0.3-0.58
DAN HAMHUISD 5316.17-7.5-0.91-0.67
GREG DE VRIESD 4313.84-6.8-1.41-1.46
STEVE SULLIVANC 1212.54-14-3.19-3.78

Corsi: The net of Total Shots (including Blocked & Missed) for and against while that player is on the ice, expressed per 60 minutes of play.
+-ON/60: Goals For - Goals Against per 60 minutes of play.
Rating: Each player’s individual +-ON/60, compared to the team’s performance when he’s not on the ice.  A measure of indivdual impact on Plus/Minus.

6. That Corsi column helps explain why Antti Pihlstrom remains up in the NHL, despite an astounding lack of offensive production.  Heck, Zanon has more Points Per Game (0.17) than Pihlstrom does (0.16).

Filed in: Nashville Predators, NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
 Tags: antti+pihlstrom, dan+ellis, greg+zanon, joel+ward, nik+antropov, pekka+rinne, steve+sullivan,

Comments

Nathan's avatar

I am not a Preds fan, but from the outside looking in, I would say they should avoid a deadline deal. Based on what I saw yesterday, they don’t have the depth or scoring ability to make a legitimate run if they get into the playoffs. Nik Antropov won’t change that. No reason to waste picks and prospects on a player that won’t “get you over the top”. Even if he played a role in getting to the postseason, is it worth it? Perhaps the financial boon of even two home playoff games makes it worthwhile, but from a hockey perspective, I would hate to see the Preds give away picks and prospects that they could really leverage to be a much better team in say, 2011 or 2012. When you consider Poile is one of the top three GMs in the league, then you really want to let him keep as many picks as he can to work with.

As a free agent though, I think Antropov would be really good for Nashville. He’s the type of forward they like—big, decent speed, and hits—except that he also has hands that are capable of chipping in 20+ goals, no problem. I think he’d be the type of value guy that will fall in the right price range for his production, and for the Preds’ limited budget.

I don’t mean they are stylistically the same, because they obviously are not, but as a FA signing, Antropov kinda reminds me of the Dumont signing. A guy that’ll won’t be considered top of the FA class, and while big money is being thrown around to the top names, he could slide under the radar to a smart team on a budget like Nashville.

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/11/09 at 03:11 PM ET

pwnicholson's avatar

Agree with Nathan. Antropv would be a great, but his price will be far too high compared to what he could possibly offer the Preds during a stretch run. I also think he is too good and there are too many teams that will be buyers at the deadline. just not enough talent to go around means he’s going to be very expensive.

Would love to have him - and maybe he is a free agent grab - but he isn’t a good bet for this year

Posted by pwnicholson from Nashville, TN on 02/11/09 at 04:04 PM ET

Avatar

Would we be pushing Legwand to the 3rd line, Antropov to the 3rd line or let Legwand move to the wing - where he seemed confortable earlier? Legwand - Antropov-Erat seems like a decent line, but the only way we should go after him is if it has something conditional upon his resigning with us. I don’t like the idea of him being a rental but could warm up to him if we keep him. Next year, though… we would have a center jam. Arnott, Legwand, Antropov, Bonk, Wilson, Nichol.

I have hope, but am only cautiously hopeful for us right now. I don’t really expect us to get to the playoffs so I don’t think a playoff rental would be prudent.

Posted by kakemono on 02/11/09 at 04:16 PM ET

SYF's avatar

Wait.

Are we talking about the same Nik Antropov who had a history of being ridiculed in TO for his diving and injury-faking ways?  I’m quite certain it is the same unreliable guy who did those things to earn his paycheck the cheap way.

Posted by SYF from Las Vegas, NV on 02/11/09 at 04:21 PM ET

Forechecker's avatar

One thing I’ve heard often is this concern about a logjam at center.  Remember firstly that Bonk, Fiddler and Nichol are at the end of their current contracts, and second, you can always move a center to the wing if needed.

Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 02/11/09 at 04:25 PM ET

Yzerman19's avatar

I was in attendance last night, and Rinne kept the game from being 10 - 3.  I agree that Ellis needs to stick around, because Rinne has been stellar, hes not ready to take on the full load yet.....Plus Drew MacIntyre is not an NHL goaltender, he is where he needs to be at Milwaukee....

You honestly dont have a log jam at center......

Most of your centers are 3rd to 4th line calibur players, they aren’t going to make your team better, and it wont really hurt you if they are gone.  Smithson is decent on the 4th line, keep him. Legwand needs to go, he’s underachieved for close to 10 seasons, he’s not going to ever live up to his draft spot.  Yeah the “Hes had injuries” excuse will come into play, most players have injuries....Bonk is good at faceoffs, he’ll score here and there, you have the majority of the roster is like that… Wilson is not NHL ready by any stretch, nor will be until AFTER a season or at least part of one at Milwaukee. 

Santorelli should be playing, Im aware he had a cup of coffee earlier, but just let him play on the 3rd or 4th line, see what he has..  At least he would be tutored by the likes of Arnott , and be honest, this team is not making a Cup run, it will be lucky to get into the 8 spot and meet San Jose once again.

Posted by Yzerman19 from Nashville on 02/12/09 at 03:43 AM ET

Avatar

A logjam doesn’t require you to have a ton of good talent at a position. Having 6 players who normally play center is a logjam when you can only have 4. I’m not saying we have 6 players we want to keep, but talking of a trade for Antropov as the context, it would put us in a logjam. I’m new to hockey (about 2 years of heavy following) and wasn’t aware it is such an easy transition from one position to another… I guess Center to Winger does seem like the easiest trasition though.

Where have you heard Wilson will not be ready for the NHL next year? From what I read draft day was that he was one of the most ready. -just looking for information on this right now.

Legwand has a NTC and is here for 4 more years so moving him will be really tough - especially with his contract. My hopeful projection for the team is for Wilson to come in next year sometime and push Legwand down to a 3rd line shutdown role.

Posted by kakemono on 02/12/09 at 09:15 AM ET

Forechecker's avatar

Having 5 or 6 natural centers on an NHL roster is very typical, particularly since most of these guys, since they were the stars on their teams growing up, played a lot of center anyway.  My view of Legwand is that with a playmaking center available, he’d be better able to focus on being a shutdown 5-on-5 guy and PK threat; in that role I think he’s dynamite.

I hope to have a profile of Colin Wilson coming to this space soon, so stay tuned for more on him.

Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 02/12/09 at 09:32 AM ET

Yzerman19's avatar

The only person who has said he is ready was Poile.....The kid is in college for petes sake, sure go ahead and rush him and possibly ruin him, and it’s not like he was considered that much of a stud to begin with.....He’s being compared to Keith Primeau cause of his size, yeah hes a good YOUNG prospect......He’s just a sophomore in college, would be like rushing one of these kids from juniors into the fold…

Last time I Looked , LOGJAM means you have many QUALITY centermen, not a couple good ones and some garbage....

Posted by Yzerman19 from Nashville on 02/12/09 at 10:34 AM ET

Forechecker's avatar

Primeau??? Wilson’s only 6’1”, he’s certainly not a Primeau type.  He may be ready next fall for a 3rd line job, but I agree he’d be much better off spending time in Milwaukee.  Unless you’re absolutely dominating the NCAA, it’s too big a jump to expect NHL success as the next step.

Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 02/12/09 at 10:39 AM ET

Avatar

I never suggested rushing him. From what I had heard, he was ready. Working on the premanition that he was ready means that it would not be rushing him to bring him up. It wasn’t just Poile though… all the predraft things said he was among the most NHL ready. A short google search returned many articles saying he could be ready / is physically the most NHL ready / should be ready in a year ... that is predraft. He may not be NHL ready and he probably isn’t. I don’t know.  -but saying Poile is the only one who said he was is incorrect when so many other sources make like claims

A logjam is anything that impedes progress. Playing Wilson on the 4th line getting 7-8 minutes is bad for his progress. If we had Arnott, Legwand, and Antropov (the possible trade that fueled this whole discussion) playing center and holding down an otherwise ready Wilson, that is certainly a logjam.

Posted by kakemono on 02/12/09 at 10:52 AM ET

Nathan's avatar

One thing I’ve heard often is this concern about a logjam at center.  Remember firstly that Bonk, Fiddler and Nichol are at the end of their current contracts, and second, you can always move a center to the wing if needed.

You’re better off signing quality centerman than going out of your way to find wingers. Case in point—the Detroit strategy since Scotty Bowman has been to find offensively talented, two-way centers, draft heavily on defense, and go from there. It’s too easy to move a guy like Henrik Zetterberg, that wins 54% of his faceoffs, to the wing, whereas it’s really difficult to move a top talented winger—like Rick Nash, for instance, to center, where he has to learn how to be effective at the dot and in a defensive role. Ken Hitchcock has done a great job making Nash a valuable two-way player, but it’s taken a couple seasons and Nash still isn’t effective as an every-game center.

I do have to agree with the comments about the quality though—Nashville is deep at center, but they are all guys that fill the 3rd and 4th line role.

Poile is a great GM. I think the best thing the Preds can do is try to unload a guy like Bonk—big body that’s decent defensively and wins lots of faceoffs—because he’s what most playoff teams want. Get as many picks in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds of the next two or three drafts as you can, and let the Preds solid management and scouting do their job. They’ll make good on those picks, and will be able to focus a bit more on offensive picks since they have Weber and Suter solidifying the back line for years to come.

Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/12/09 at 01:28 PM ET

Forechecker's avatar

Excellent points, Nathan; although by now, I think it’s a legitimate question to ask whether Poile & the Gang can effectively draft and develop Top-6 level forwards. Radulov was on his way prior to his defection, but outside of that, there’s hasn’t been much to speak of on that front.  The double-downside there is that proven offensive forwards are the most expensive to acquire in the league, both in terms of salary and trade value required…

Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 02/12/09 at 01:53 PM ET

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Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis.  Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey. 

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