I’ll give a plug for javageeks detailed shift charts although with the cursory look I gave Johnsons technique implies a strong similarity if not the same technique :
http://hockeynumbers.blogspot.com/2008/03/detailed-shift-charts-2008.html

I like the null model of goals being distributed proportional to ice time.  It has a nice intuitive feel to it.  None of the system overcome consistent pairing and line combos.

Posted by mogen_david from Great Basin on 11/20/08 at 04:12 PM ET

I agree, the +/- is such a weak stat, it’s all about the team/line and which line from the other team you usually face.

I would also throw out there (no chance of happening ever), that the NHL get rid of the second assist. Some times the second assist does have merrit, but for 90% of the time the 2nd assist is no more important than the 3rd assist. Europe has no need for it and so should the NHL.

Posted by Travis Ro from Calgary on 11/20/08 at 04:15 PM ET

Alan Ryder has done some really good work with his analysis but I would be wary of any analysis that shows the Columbus Blue Jackets having 3 of the top 6 defensemen in defensive contribution (Hejda 3rd, Klesla 4th and Hainsey 5th).  I haven’t looked at his methodology but maybe he too is having a problem factoring out goalies as Leclaire had a really good year last year.  He also has 5 of the top 6 defensemen being from the central division so maybe there are quality of competition issues.

I should take a look at my defensive contribution and offensive contribution stats and see how they compare (right now I just look at overall contribution),

Posted by David Johnson on 11/20/08 at 04:26 PM ET

Under Ryder’s rankings, Leclaire had an underwhelming campaign, so the implication is that Ken Hitchcock’s system and the work of those defensemen led to the Blue Jackets, and by extension Leclaire’s, outstanding “conventional” defensive stats.

Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 11/20/08 at 04:30 PM ET

Nine shutouts have never underwhelmed me including 5 when he faced 30 or more shots.  Plus a .919 save percentage isn’t too shabby.  Maybe his numbers were over inflated because of the defensive system in front of him, but you still have a hard time convincing me the Blue Jackets had 3 of the top 6 defensive defensemen.  Adam Foote was 15th overall too.  With 4 of the top 15 defensive defensemen in the NHL and a goalie with a .919 save % with 9 shutouts and in a weak division (aside from Detroit who they played well against) and they still couldn’t challenge for a playoff spot.  Something doesn’t seem right.

Posted by David Johnson on 11/20/08 at 04:44 PM ET

All true, but the Blue Jackets also boasted the 2nd-worst Goals For in the league last year, so it’s not like they were focusing much attention on the offensive zone.

Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 11/20/08 at 04:49 PM ET

The Ducks, Devils and Rangers weren’t much better (3rd, 4th and 6th worst) in the goals for category but they all made the playoffs.

Posted by David Johnson on 11/20/08 at 04:54 PM ET

I would be wary of any analysis that shows the Columbus Blue Jackets having 3 of the top 6 defensemen in defensive contribution (Hejda 3rd, Klesla 4th and Hainsey 5th).

I’m just curious why you point out that Columbus has 3 of the top 6 defensive defensemen when clearly they have 3 of the top 5 (!).

Though I’m just going off your comment; maybe it’s a typo.

Posted by Earl Sleek from Anaheim, CA on 11/20/08 at 05:26 PM ET

I find all of this very ironic since the NBA just started using plus/minus as a stat last year, apparently thinking it is a great measure of individual contribution (and it is better than anything they’ve had up to this point).

Posted by Paul Nicholson from Nashville on 11/20/08 at 08:32 PM ET