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On the Forecheck

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Preds tame Panthers in a snoozer

by Forechecker on 11/02/08 at 12:02 PM ET
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As I wrote yesterday, last night’s Predators-Panthers matchup was promoted in Nashville as “Fellowship Night”, and in honor of the occasion, a special 11th Commandment was issued to the two teams:  Thou Shalt Not Hit.

This had to be one of the least physical NHL games I’ve seen in a long time, and for those concerned about the lack of television coverage, don’t be.  This was a snoozefest on ice, only saved by an outstanding effort in goal by Pekka Rinne.

Considering the TV blackout that applied earlier this week in Washington, this was by far the best goaltending performance I’ve seen out of the Preds so far this season.  There were 4 or 5 game-saving stops made by the Finnish backup during the later stages of the game, and he shut down all three Florida skaters during the shootout to earn the W, pushing Nashville’s home record to an impressive 5-1.  They’ll try to build on this recent 3-0-1 stretch as they head for a long road trip beginning Tuesday in Vancouver.

Yes, Shea Weber scored again, and now has five goals and seven assists through 11 games.  A strong showing on this trip through Western Canada could continue to bring broader recognition to a player who looks more and more like an All-Star every night.

Game by game, I think I’m also becoming more of a Ryan Jones fan.  He still looks a step slow, and I wonder how he’ll hold up in January and February as the grind of the NHL schedule takes its toll, but right now the effort is there, he provides a purposeful, physical presence in the offensive zone, and on the backcheck (something you can’t usually pick up on TV), he communicates with his linemates to make sure opponents are covered.  I’ll provide a full update tomorrow, but I can tell you that he leads the team in Penalty Plus/Minus as well.

But let’s take a look at some broader numbers, courtesy of Behind the Net:

These numbers reflect 5-on-5 play, and are sorted by the Rating field, which expresses the net impact of a player’s on-ice presence to the team’s Goals For/Against differential per 60 minutes.  Basically, among regular players, Jones leads the way at +2.42, while Dan Hamhuis is actually getting lit up pretty badly to this point.  Hamhuis did get caught pretty badly on Florida’s first goal last night, as Rostislav Olesz get even with him as he picked up the puck, then shrugged off Hamhuis to go in along one Rinne for the score.

The other columns are mostly self-explanatory, with the exception of the Corsi number.  For those not familiar, this is used to express the net Total Shots (Shots on Goal, plus Missed and Blocked) for and against when a given player is on the ice, expressed as a rate per 60 minutes.  For example, when Joel Ward is on the ice, the Preds have fired 1.1 more Total Shots than they’ve give up, per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.  This helps provide some context behind that Rating category.  For instance, Scott Nichol and Jordin Tootoo are certainly off to disappointing starts in 5-on-5; not only are they sharply negative in terms of Plus/Minus, but they’re getting outshot to boot; it’s not just unlucky goaltending contributing to those numbers.

I did get the chance to catch Preds play-by-play man Pete Weber on the concourse during the 2nd intermission, and commended him on using Total Shots as part of his broadcast work this season.  They haven’t drilled down to the individual level, as is shown in the Corsi numbers above, but for TV, Total Shots makes for a nice addition to the telecast.  It’s easy to understand for a broad viewing audience, and provides a slightly deeper level of context to the usual description of a game.

Filed in: Nashville Predators, NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
 Tags: Pekka+Rinne, Ryan+Jones, Shea+Weber,

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