On the Forecheck
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Surveying the schedule
by Forechecker on 02/10/09 at 09:48 AM ET
Comments (4)
With the race to the playoffs so congested (particularly in the wild, wild, Western Conference), one area of focus is the remaining schedule for the various contenders. Which teams have the toughest schedule, the most games left, etc.?
Two fine articles dig into some of the details for you. First, over at mc79hockey, we get a schedule breakdown; which teams have the most home vs. road games, matches with elite teams, and back-to-back contests as well. The picture looks especially grim for Minnesota there.
Second, JavaGeek over at Hockey Numbers takes a look at just how much of an effect back-to-back games have on a team’s chances for winning. It helps put into perspective something that teams complain about all the time.
Filed in: NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
Comments
I was looking at back to backs (hereafter referred to as b2b’s) a couple weeks ago, but my motivation was to see which teams were benefiting from them as much as being hurt by them. I didn’t differentiate between home/road games, nor did I count the games where both teams were in the second half of b2b’s, as there is no advantage.
Here are the number of games/points earned for each team when their opponent was in the second of b2b and they were not. This is for games up to the All Star break.
B2B Advantage
12/15 MON
9/17 SJS
9/6 ATL
9/5 MIN
8/12 COL
8/12 DAL
8/11 ANA
8/11 LAK
7/10 PIT
7/7 VAN
7/4 TBL
6/12 BOS
6/12 DET
6/9 CAL
6/8 NAS
6/7 PHI
6/2 NYI
5/9 CHI
5/8 EDM
5/7 NJD
5/6 STL
5/6 TOR
4/6 OTT
4/5 BUF
4/5 PHO
4/3 CBJ
4/3 FLA
4/3 NYR
3/3 CAR
1/2 WAS
The average is almost exactly six games, so Montreal is getting a relative cakewalk (although they’re not earning the payoff that would be expected) and Washington is getting reamed. Note that only seven teams have a losing points percentage in this situation, the strangest of which is probably the Rangers (considering what they’ve done when the shoe is on the other foot, see below).
Here’s the games/points for each team when they were playing the second half of b2b and their opponent was not (thru the All Star break):
B2B Disadvantage
9/8 ANA
9/8 EDM
9/7 CBJ
8/10 NJD
8/6 ATL
7/11 NYR
7/9 VAN
7/7 OTT
7/6 LAK
7/4 DAL
7/2 MIN
6/9 DET
6/8 MON
6/8 PIT
6/7 STL
6/6 PHI
6/5 PHO
6/4 BUF
6/3 CAL
5/9 BOS
5/8 CHI
5/7 FLA
5/6 CAR
5/4 NYI
5/4 TBL
4/6 SJS
4/3 TOR
4/2 WAS
3/2 NAS
3/1 COL
This doesn’t have quite the same outliers as the b2b advantaged team list, but there is still significant variance from the league average of six. Top teams do well as you’d expect, but some of the teams battling for playoff spots (MIN, COL in particular) could certainly stand to do better.
Some people like to say that everything evens out, so let’s see how much that holds true for b2b scheduling. Here’s the relation of all teams’ b2b advantage vs. b2b disadvantage (again, games up to the All Star break):
B2B +/-
+6 MON
+5 COL
+5 SJS
+3 NAS
+2 MIN
+2 TBL
+1 ATL
+1 BOS
+1 DAL
+1 LAK
+1 NYI
+1 PIT
+1 TOR
+0 CAL
+0 CHI
+0 DET
+0 PHI
+0 VAN
-1 ANA
-1 FLA
-1 STL
-2 BUF
-2 CAR
-2 PHO
-3 NJD
-3 NYR
-3 OTT
-3 WAS
-4 EDM
-5 CBJ
Look at those darned Habs. A Centennial advantage? The Avs and Sharks have to be pretty happy too, although you can certainly argue that San Jose would win most of their games regardless. Edmonton and Columbus, you’re getting jobbed.
Just for completeness’ sake, here’s the games/points for each team when both they and their opponent were in the second of b2b. I don’t view this a particularly meaningful, but it could give you some ammo if a Caps fan ever complains about the number of b2b’s his team has played (prior to ASG):
B2B Both Teams
5/5 WAS
5/4 STL
5/3 PHO
4/8 CAR
4/6 SJS
4/4 BUF
4/4 NAS
4/4 TBL
4/2 FLA
3/6 BOS
3/5 NYI
3/4 CHI
3/3 ATL
3/3 NJD
3/2 CBJ
2/4 EDM
2/4 PHI
2/3 MON
2/2 ANA
2/2 COL
2/2 LAK
2/2 OTT
2/0 PIT
1/2 MIN
1/2 NYR
1/0 CAL
1/0 DAL
1/0 DET
1/0 TOR
1/0 VAN
Posted by shep on 02/10/09 at 01:52 PM ET
Dynamite stuff there, thanks for chipping in, shep.
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 02/10/09 at 02:10 PM ET
Hey, no prob. I was thinking of making it into a member blog entry, but more people would probably read it here anyway…
Posted by shep on 02/10/09 at 02:20 PM ET
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About On the Forecheck
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis. Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey.
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From mc79hockey…
Right. Because Conklin played so poorly and Roloson played so well against the Wings last week. I think most Wings fas would relish a Wings-Oilers matchup in the first round. But it’ll have to be the first round because, if the Oilers make the playoffs, they won’t be going any farther than that.
Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 02/10/09 at 10:31 AM ET