On the Forecheck
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The Forechecker’s Fabulous Rumor Mill
by Forechecker on 02/17/09 at 03:55 PM ET
Comments (11)
A few days ago I noted the heroic efforts by the folks over at HockeyBuzzHogWash.com, as they attempt to keep a scorecard to determine just how worthwhile the supposedly “inside information” is that’s provided Eklund over at HockeyBuzz. I titled that post ”Even a broken clock is right twice a day”, and keeping with that theme, I’ve come up with a set of trade deadline scenarios which are likely to be more accurate than the 3.6%** he’s running as of this writing.
So here are the rules I followed…
1. I begin with a list of all players eligible for Unrestricted Free Agency this summer, from teams currently outside the playoffs.
2. I eliminated players who have cleared waivers on their way down from the NHL, are on injured reserve, or have already been traded this year (i.e. Brad May and Wade Brookbank).
3. For each player, they are given 17 “rumors”. One indicating that they’ll stay with their current team, and the other 16 have them going to a team currently in the playoffs.
By the end of Trade Deadline Day, each of these 1,768 possibilities will be weighed against the results. Now I realize that simply dumping that list on you all at once is a bit much, so in the meantime I’ve crafted something that can dish out these little nuggets of inside hockey scoop one morsel at a time…
While this won’t update with each refresh of your browser, check back occasionally to get the latest & greatest tidbits. You never know which ones will come true! My guess is that I’ll be right around 5% correct when it’s all said and done.
Special thanks to Twitterers @dhutchis and @goaliemom31 for helping with my Google Spreadsheet questions.
**Note: I could make 30 separate “rumors” which have a specific player going to each team in the NHL, and I’ve got roughly a 3.3% chance of being right (barring retirement or a jump to the KHL).
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Comments
Very cool. I look forward to seeing how this plays out! Anything to expose these rumor-mongering frauds for what they really are! That includes “real journalists” like Bruce Garrioch! Yikes!
Posted by Nathan from Jonny Ericsson's ice cream truck on 02/17/09 at 04:36 PM ET
This is beyond fantastic.
Posted by PRC. on 02/17/09 at 03:58 PM ET
Con. Cur. Great work.
Posted by IwoCPO from Washington, DC on 02/17/09 at 05:06 PM ET
Oh yes....FILLED with awesome. I love this.
Are you going to track those results on the page as well? A sort of archive of trade predictions? That would only add to the fabulosity.
Posted by Big D Hockey from Dallas, TX on 02/17/09 at 05:19 PM ET
What I’ll do at the end is take the Google Spreadsheet with all the players listed, note the team they’re with as of March 5, and run the results. I’ll leave it up to the boys at HockeyBuzzHogWash.com to put together the comparison of what I’m up against…
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 02/17/09 at 05:21 PM ET
I love it!
I wonder if enough people dog him, will someone finally shut him down?
I wonder if Vinny likes being linked to the Rangers or Habs once a week?
Or if the NHLPA will finally get tired of all his crap?
Posted by AvsRock from My timeshare in insanity... on 02/17/09 at 06:46 PM ET
Sounds much more accurate than Ek’s lawn darts…
Posted by stackiii from Nashville on 02/17/09 at 07:40 PM ET
This is genius. Only thing you have left to do is to ban those who dare to be mildly critical of you…
Posted by LSJ from Wash, DC on 02/19/09 at 04:13 PM ET
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About On the Forecheck
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis. Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey.
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This is beyond fantastic.
Posted by PRC. on 02/17/09 at 03:58 PM ET