On the Forecheck
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The NHL’s 1st Quarter MVP?
by Forechecker on 11/21/08 at 12:32 PM ET
Comments (8)
So who is your MVP for the NHL’s 1st quarter? In order to take a comprehensive look at which players have impacted team performance the most, I’d like to present my own take on the Top 30 skaters so far. This analysis combines even strength, special teams, durability and penalty drawing/taking information in what I hope you’ll agree is a more complete picture than we’ve typically seen when it comes to comparing individual stars.
In light of yesterday’s discussion on the traditional Plus/Minus statistic, what I’ve done here is utilize the Rating stat from Behind the Net, which describes the net impact of an individual’s on-ice presence to team Goals For and Against values. Typically, this is isolate to 5-on-5, 5-on-4, or 4-on-5 action, with figures prorated to 60 minutes of playing time.
This view, however, incorporates Games Played and Time on Ice into the mix, to come up with a Rating Impact value for each situation (5-on-5 Imp, 5-on-4 Imp, 4-on-5 Imp) [edit: updated for clarity], which expresses the sum total of both offensive and defensive contributions in balance. All three situations are brought together in the Total Rat Imp column, with the final columns on the right bringing Penalty Plus/Minus into the formula. Current (through the games of November 20th) values are in the PPM column, and PPM Impact is calculated by assigning a value of 0.153 goals for each net penalty drawn, a figure which comes from an analysis done by Alan Ryder last year, which also includes the offensive and defensive aspects of a power play (the PP team is more likely to score, and the opponent is less likely). What we’re left with is Total Impact…
| NAME | TEAM | POS | GP | 5/5 TOI/G | 5/5 Rate | 5/5 Imp | 5/4 TOI/G | 5/4 Rate | 5/4 Imp | 4/5 TOI/G | 4/5 Rate | 4/5 Imp | Tot Rate Imp | PPM | PPM Imp | Tot Imp |
| ALEXANDER OVECHKIN | WSH | LW | 17 | 15.3 | 3.58 | 15.52 | 5.37 | 7.23 | 11.00 | 1.55 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 26.71 | 1 | 0.153 | 26.86 |
| MIKE GREEN | WSH | D | 18 | 15.83 | 1.99 | 9.45 | 5.51 | 4.74 | 7.84 | 2.59 | 7.50 | 5.83 | 23.11 | -3 | -0.459 | 22.65 |
| ALEXANDER SEMIN | WSH | LW | 16 | 11.93 | 4.75 | 15.11 | 4.30 | 0.98 | 1.12 | 2.20 | 8.36 | 4.90 | 21.14 | 1 | 0.153 | 21.29 |
| DANIEL ALFREDSSON | OTT | RW | 18 | 13.19 | 1.25 | 4.95 | 5.06 | 6.57 | 9.97 | 1.93 | 6.20 | 3.59 | 18.51 | 5 | 0.765 | 19.27 |
| COREY PERRY | ANA | RW | 20 | 13.82 | 1.52 | 7.00 | 3.33 | 9.92 | 11.01 | 0.02 | 7.61 | 0.05 | 18.06 | 0 | 0 | 18.06 |
| SIDNEY CROSBY | PIT | C | 19 | 15.17 | 1.35 | 6.49 | 5.00 | 6.32 | 10.01 | 1.09 | 2.59 | 0.89 | 17.39 | 2 | 0.306 | 17.69 |
| JAROME IGINLA | CGY | RW | 20 | 15.14 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 5.52 | 7.06 | 12.99 | 0.18 | 6.26 | 0.38 | 15.03 | 10 | 1.53 | 16.56 |
| CHRIS PRONGER | ANA | D | 20 | 16.29 | 0.11 | 0.60 | 3.97 | 13.92 | 18.42 | 3.78 | -2.00 | -2.52 | 16.50 | -3 | -0.459 | 16.04 |
| DERICK BRASSARD | CBJ | C | 18 | 10.43 | 3.38 | 10.58 | 3.44 | 4.85 | 5.01 | 0.06 | 6.68 | 0.12 | 15.70 | 2 | 0.306 | 16.01 |
| MIKE RICHARDS | PHI | C | 17 | 14.42 | 2.44 | 9.97 | 3.55 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 2.76 | 5.46 | 4.27 | 14.54 | 8 | 1.224 | 15.76 |
| PATRIK BERGLUND | STL | C | 14 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 15.56 | 1.94 | -2.21 | -1.00 | 0.01 | 5.55 | 0.01 | 14.58 | 3 | 0.459 | 15.03 |
| NIKOLAI ZHERDEV | NYR | RW | 21 | 12.72 | 3.06 | 13.62 | 2.61 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 0.08 | 2.79 | 0.08 | 15.03 | -1 | -0.153 | 14.88 |
| TOMAS HOLMSTROM | DET | LW | 17 | 11.83 | 2.81 | 9.42 | 3.08 | 5.33 | 4.65 | 0.01 | 3.93 | 0.01 | 14.08 | 4 | 0.612 | 14.69 |
| EVGENI MALKIN | PIT | C | 19 | 14.41 | 2.4 | 10.95 | 5.28 | 3.44 | 5.75 | 0.99 | -9.02 | -2.83 | 13.88 | 4 | 0.612 | 14.49 |
| SEAN O’DONNELL | LAK | D | 18 | 16.59 | 2.32 | 11.55 | 0.32 | -4.84 | -0.46 | 3.53 | 3.44 | 3.64 | 14.72 | -2 | -0.306 | 14.42 |
| MARIAN HOSSA | DET | RW | 18 | 12.74 | 2.77 | 10.59 | 2.99 | 4.17 | 3.74 | 1.67 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 14.42 | 0 | 0 | 14.42 |
| SAKU KOIVU | MTL | C | 17 | 11.49 | 2.28 | 7.42 | 3.25 | 6.67 | 6.14 | 1.02 | -0.31 | -0.09 | 13.47 | 3 | 0.459 | 13.93 |
| DOUG WEIGHT | NYI | C | 18 | 12.83 | 1.45 | 5.58 | 4.83 | 4.65 | 6.74 | 0.33 | 13.63 | 1.35 | 13.67 | 1 | 0.153 | 13.82 |
| JASON SPEZZA | OTT | C | 19 | 14.49 | 0.52 | 2.39 | 5.21 | 5.84 | 9.64 | 0.20 | 20.87 | 1.32 | 13.34 | 2 | 0.306 | 13.65 |
| WILLIE MITCHELL | VAN | D | 20 | 16.54 | 2.18 | 12.02 | 0.35 | -6.04 | -0.70 | 4.34 | 1.78 | 2.58 | 13.89 | -2 | -0.306 | 13.58 |
| RYAN GETZLAF | ANA | C | 19 | 14.31 | 0.56 | 2.54 | 3.37 | 10.30 | 10.99 | 0.07 | 7.97 | 0.18 | 13.71 | -2 | -0.306 | 13.40 |
| JASON ARNOTT | NSH | C | 15 | 12.36 | 1.31 | 4.05 | 4.16 | 8.66 | 9.01 | 0.21 | 5.47 | 0.29 | 13.34 | 0 | 0 | 13.34 |
| SHELDON SOURAY | EDM | D | 18 | 15.72 | 0.9 | 4.24 | 4.47 | 5.27 | 7.07 | 3.69 | 1.99 | 2.20 | 13.51 | -3 | -0.459 | 13.06 |
| NICKLAS BACKSTROM | WSH | C | 19 | 13.76 | 2.07 | 9.02 | 3.79 | 2.41 | 2.89 | 0.27 | 6.59 | 0.56 | 12.48 | 3 | 0.459 | 12.93 |
| ZACH PARISE | NJD | LW | 18 | 15.3 | 2.18 | 10.01 | 3.49 | 0.98 | 1.03 | 0.21 | 9.97 | 0.63 | 11.66 | 7 | 1.071 | 12.73 |
| PAVEL DATSYUK | DET | C | 18 | 13.01 | 2.36 | 9.21 | 3.16 | 2.51 | 2.38 | 2.44 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 11.62 | 7 | 1.071 | 12.69 |
| JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT | NSH | RW | 18 | 12.96 | 0.82 | 3.19 | 4.24 | 7.86 | 10.00 | 0.14 | -18.61 | -0.78 | 12.40 | 1 | 0.153 | 12.56 |
| PAUL KARIYA | STL | LW | 11 | 12.87 | 2.69 | 6.35 | 3.86 | 9.89 | 7.00 | 0.25 | -16.06 | -0.74 | 12.61 | -1 | -0.153 | 12.46 |
| KIM JOHNSSON | MIN | D | 17 | 18.08 | 1.87 | 9.58 | 2.09 | 2.51 | 1.49 | 3.72 | 1.54 | 1.62 | 12.69 | -2 | -0.306 | 12.38 |
| DREW DOUGHTY | LAK | D | 18 | 16.1 | 2.67 | 12.90 | 4.21 | -1.48 | -1.87 | 1.36 | 4.40 | 1.80 | 12.82 | -5 | -0.765 | 12.06 |
So what do these numbers tell us? First of all, if I’m a Washington Capitals fan, I’m terrified of anything happening to the trio of Ovechkin, Green, and Semin. If I’m a Calgary or Philadelphia fan, I’m proud of captains like Jarome Iginla and Mike Richards, whose composure in drawing penalties adds a significant boost to their team.
Feel free to run through these results and chime in with your thoughts. One point I’d like to add is what this really measures is how an individual stands in relation to the rest of his team (the “who means the most” side of the MVP debate). A theoretical team made up of identical players, no matter how good or bad, would come up with zeroes across the Behind the Net ratings.
Filed in: NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
Tags: Alexander+Ovechkin, Alexander+Semin, Mike+Green,
Comments
Zetterberg nowhere to be found or did I miss him?
Posted by IwoCPO from Washington, DC on 11/21/08 at 02:32 PM ET
Relative to his teammates, Zetterberg hasn’t had much of a year so far at even strength. Goals For has certainly gone up while he’s out there, but so has Goals Against as well. That’s not to say that things won’t change over the next several months, but so far, he’s well down the list.
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 11/21/08 at 02:45 PM ET
The PP and PK data here is actually only 5-on-4 and 4-on-5 data. It ignores 5-on-3s and 4-on-3s. 4-on-4 data is completely ignored. How are impacts calculated from TOI and ratings?
Shep: I think you’re selling Holmstrom a little short there, but the point is valid.
So I looked at Holmstrom’s numbers a little more closely. Nearly all of the difference between his impact and Datsyuk’s comes from Holmstrom’s higher PP rating. That higher rating, in turn comes from a single goal PP goal that Kronwall scored after Holmstrom came on but before Datsyuk and Hossa were on the ice. That increases his GFON by one and decreases his GFOFF by one, so it doubly increases his PP rating. If you count that as a goal scored while he was off the ice, his rating drops to 2.81. I don’t know how much that would drop his impact, since I don’t know how impact was calculated (that kind of thing really should be in the post, btw), but it’d probably put him around or below Datsyuk.
On a similar note, it’s interesting that the difference between Hossa and Datsyuk’s ratings is entirely because Datsyuk stays out, on average, a few seconds longer than Hossa on power plays. Otherwise, they’ve been on the ice for all the same PP goals. When looking at PP and PK data, the sample size is still small enough that very small changes in input will create huge swings in output. So be warned.
Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 11/21/08 at 02:54 PM ET
Total impact takes the Rating (which is per 60 minutes), and runs it through Games Played and TOI/G to make it a counting stat.
And you’re right, we’re only a quarter of the way through the season, so a few bounces either way can influence the numbers somewhat. It’ll be worth following this in the months ahead to see who drops off and who stays up top.
Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 11/21/08 at 03:00 PM ET
No Sharks :( I guess their getting the job done by committee or at least with a “balanced” team.
Posted by mogen_david from Great Basin on 11/21/08 at 03:58 PM ET
I don’t know how exactly what these stats mean in relation to players versus players on other teams but Semin and Green both out with injuries last night in LA and with out Nicky Backstrom (another on this list) the Caps didn’t muster much of an attack… thanks for the research.
Posted by MinorTthreat from Virginia Beach, VA on 11/21/08 at 11:15 PM ET
Looks like WSH is really being carried by three high impact players.
thanks for doing this, I enjoyed reading it.
if you do it again at the mid point could you do distinct lists for F and D?
Posted by The Falconer on 11/24/08 at 04:22 PM ET
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Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis. Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey.
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So Holmstrom is the “most impactful” player on the Wings? Not bad for a guy who can’t skate, can’t shoot, is an okay passer, and barely plays defense.
I’m probably more of a stats geek than the typical fan, but if that’s what your picture shows, I think it’s out of focus.
Posted by shep from california on 11/21/08 at 01:38 PM ET