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On the Forecheck

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There’s nothing like home cooking

by Forechecker on 11/25/08 at 11:12 AM ET
Comments (3)

Perhaps no figure in recorded history understood the concept of home-ice advantage better than Alexander Nevsky, a midieval Russian prince who scored a huge win over the Teutonic Knights on the frozen Lake Peipus back in 1242.

While luring enemies in heavy armor onto thin ice may not be an option, tonight the Nashville Predators return to the Sommet Center to take on an undermanned St. Louis Blahs squad at 6 p.m. local time; the early start is for a nationwide Versus telecast, the only scheduled appearance by the Preds on the Mike Chen Network this year.

A couple weeks ago I remember seeing an article (can’t remember where, sorry for the lack of linkage) that said the Predators have been one of the top teams in the NHL on home ice since the league came back from the Great Lockout.  So I decided to run some numbers…

The table below depicts home-ice Goals For and Goals Against numbers from the 2005-6 season up through the games of last night.  Top values in Goals For and Goals Against per game are highlighted in green, the worst numbers highlighted in pink.  The ratio between Goals For and Goals Against is our single-best indicator of a how a team’s Win/Loss record should shake out over time (more on that in the coming days):

Well now, that is somewhat encouraging.  As Jessica Bliss notes today in the Tennessean, the Preds have completed a rough portion of the schedule in decent shape.  13 out of the first 20 games were on the road, and they managed to squeeze out a 3-3 record on their epic road trip that concluded with a California sweep.  Tonight, a dreaded Central Division rival, St. Louis, comes to town, having beaten Nashville in the opening game of the season 5-1.

But yesterday, the Blahs traded away a promising young scorer (Lee Stempniak), for two guys in Carlo Colaiacovo and Alexander Steen whose development has lagged well behind expectations.  Neither of them will be in the St. Louis lineup tonight anyway, nor will rookie Patrik Berglund, who has been among the most productive players in the NHL through the first quarter.

The Blahs may have started out like gangbusters, and are riding a recent 3-0-1 stretch, but a they’ve also had a run of 4-7-2 between October 22 and November 12, so at best they’re wildly inconsistent.  They are also severely undermanned right now.  These Predators, already known as one of the better teams on home ice in the NHL, need to take advantage of this situation and dominate St. Louis tonight.

UPDATE:  According to an interview with Andy Strickland on last night’s Nashville HockeyBuzz Radio broadcast, Paul Kariya isn’t expected to play tonight, either.

UPDATE 2:  Thanks to Kevin Wilson over in the Nashville Predators PR office, here’s a listing of Home Ice wins per team, covering the same period of time as the table above (data corrected after comments below):

Filed in: Nashville Predators, NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
 

Comments

If espn.com and nhl.com are to be believed, Detroit had 29 home wins last year, not 28 as Kevin Wilson’s table shows. I didn’t check any other teams.

Posted by shep from california on 11/25/08 at 01:07 PM ET

After checking the teams from Nashville down through Minnesota, Anaheim and New Jersey were shortchanged by one win in 07-08, just as Detroit. One mistake in twenty-eight entries is a typo, three mistakes is just plain sloppy.

Posted by shep from california on 11/25/08 at 01:19 PM ET

Give me a few minutes, I’ll have a correction posted; my apologies for the error…

Posted by Forechecker from Nolensville, TN on 11/25/08 at 01:52 PM ET

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About On the Forecheck

Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis.  Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey. 

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