On the Forecheck
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Western Conference Predictions
by Forechecker on 10/03/08 at 02:53 PM ET
Comments (5)
So who’s the best in the West???
For the method behind this madness, refer to my Eastern Conference predictions posted earlier today. Keep in mind that the expected winning percentages don’t include Shootout Wins. So without further ado…
1. Detroit Red Wings: Duh.
2. Dallas Stars: They always seem to be under the radar, but they’re scary-good.
3. San Jose Sharks: Talented and deep, but the coaching change is a big risk and they’ll travel more than any other team in the NHL.
4. Anaheim Ducks: Having Selanne and Niedermeyer ready from the start will help, but the Pacific is tough.
5. Nashville Predators: Shh… They like it when everyone picks them to fail.
6. Edmonton Oilers: A healthy Souray and new guy Visnovsky should help spark the offense.
7. Minnesota Wild: If Gaborik gets hurt again, they’re dead in the water.
8. Chicago Blackhawks: Can Denis Savard coach a team up to meet higher expectations?
9. Vancouver Canucks: It’ll be ugly, but Luongo and healthy D should carry them to plenty of OT games, earning precious points.
10. Phoenix Coyotes: They’ll score more goals, but can’t afford to allow more along the way.
11. Calgary Flames: That roster is shallower than a kiddie pool.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets: Leclaire must be as good or better than last season to carry them higher.
13. Colorado Avalanche: Having Sakic back for one more year costs them a chance at John Tavares.
14. Los Angeles Kings: As my 5 year-old says, “they stink.”
15. St. Louis Blues: Contending for the basement even before Erik Johnson got hurt.
Filed in: NHL Statistical Analysis | On the Forecheck | Permalink
Comments
How do Dallas and San Jose finsh 2-3 when they are in the same division? Calgary 11...wow is all i can about that.
Posted by Robbieo from Canada on 10/03/08 at 04:08 PM ET
No team with less them 90 points has made the playoff in the west since 98/99...i struggle finding reason that 5-8 all do it this year.
Posted by Robbieo from Canada on 10/03/08 at 04:14 PM ET
Robbieo, it’s a point prediction, not a seeding prediction.
Just because the NHL has a stupid seeding system doesn’t mean predictions should follow it.
Posted by Shane from Saskatoon on 10/03/08 at 05:03 PM ET
5. Nashville Predators:
Thanks for the belly laugher, Dirk. I was having a so-so day until I read that. Just hilarious.
You know, there’s a reason everyone picks them to fail. 
Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 10/03/08 at 05:44 PM ET
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About On the Forecheck
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis. Having started over 10 years ago writing for websites like In the Crease and e-Sports, Dirk launched On The Forecheck in 2005 to cover the Nashville Predators as well as apply statistical analysis to NHL hockey.
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I have to say, I disagree with the methodology of assuming everyone plays a league average number of SOs (10) and wins a league average number of them (5). Tyler Dellow has a model for predicting SOW%, based on shooting and save percentages; using the model, I made some predictions on how the Oilers and Flames would fare. My own methodology certainly has its flaws, which I admit up front, but I think it’s somewhat more realistic, since it at least tries to account for player skill in the extra-extra frame. The fact that it predicts the Oilers to be awesome and the Flames to suck is just a bonus.
Posted by Doogie2K from Calgary on 10/03/08 at 04:06 PM ET