Kukla's Korner

The Puck Stops Here

Next entry: Worst 20 Team And Zone Adjusted Corsi Numbers

Previous entry: Prediction: East Conference

A Look At The UFA All Star Team

Just before free agency opened up this year, I listed a UFA All Star Team.  This was the best 23 man roster I thought could be made by signing unrestricted free agents.  This is an exercise to see how good a team can become by investing heavily in free agency.  It is usually a method to show that free agency is not as big a contributor to team success as building through younger players via drafts and trades.  It shows that despite all the media attention that free agency gets, it doesn’t significantly change the playing field.

All 23 players on the 2009 UFA All Star Team have signed new contracts in the NHL this season.  A couple signed slightly before they hit the market as unrestricted free agents (as I picked the team hours before the free agent market opened up). 

Here is the 2009 UFA All Star Team listed with their new team, their new salary cap hit from their new contract and their old team.

2009 UFA All Star Team
Player  
New Team   
Salary Cap Hit   
Old Team
Mike CammalleriMon$6 mill

Cal

Erik ColeCar$2.9 mill

Car

Marian GaborikNYR$7.5 mill

Min

Brian GiontaMon$5 mill

NJD

Martin HavlatMin$5 mil

Chi

Marian HossaChi$5.275

Det

Saku KoivuAna$3.25

Mon

Alexei KovalevOtt$5 mill

Mon

Robert LangPhx$1 mill

Mon

Sami PahlssonCBJ$2.65 mill

Chi

Daniel SedinVan$6.1 mill

Van

Henrik SedinVan$6.1 mill

Van

Steve SullivanNas$3.75 mill

Nas

Alex TanguayTBL$2.5 mill

Mon

Francois BeaucheminTor$3.8 mill

Ana

Mike KomisarekTor$4.5 mill

Mon

Derek MorrisBos$3.3 mill

NYR

Scott NiedermayerAna$6.75 mill

Ana

Mattias OhlundTBL$3.607 mill

Van

Rob ScuderiLA$3.4 mill

Pit

Jaroslav SpacekMon$3.833 mill

Buf

Nikolai KhabibulinEdm$3.75 mill

Chi

Dwayne RolosonNYI$2.5 mill

Edm



All told, this team signed for a $97.465 annual salary cap hit.  Since the NHL has a $56.8 million salary cap, this team could not be assembled.  It makes over 70% more than the salary cap.  This team would be in the playoff hunt, but I am not certain if they would make them or not.  Building a team through free agency will get you a squad that is far too expensive to be assembled, but not one that is good enough to contend.

We can see other general trends by looking at this team.  UFAs usually jump to a new team.  Of the 23 players on this UFA All Star Team, only five remained with the same team.  They are Scott Niedermayer, Steve Sullivan, Erik Cole and Daniel and Henrik Sedin (the Sedins were never actually UFAs - they signed hours before free agency began).

Nineteen of these players came from teams that were playoff teams in 2009.  The only ones who did not were Marian Gaborik, Steve Sullivan, Jaroslav Spacek and Dwayne Roloson.  This number is reduced somewhat because Derek Morris and Erik Cole were traded at trade deadline time from non-playoff teams to playoff teams.  Of these players, 13 signed with teams that made the playoffs in 2009.  This puts ten of them on teams that missed the playoffs.  A simple model for these numbers is that good teams tend to have good players who make an All UFA team and they sign all over the NHL.  The players sign essentially randomly throughout the league.  They are about as likely to sign on playoff teams as they are non-playoff teams.  Hence the best teams are weakened (though not a significant amount as these are often aging players and these teams tend to have depth to replace them) by free agency and no team gains a particularly strong benefit.  These numbers change when looking at the truly elite free agents (those on Hall of Fame tracks).  They tend to be able to move wherever they wish as free agents (any team will want to acquire them) and they tend to gravitate to the biggest media markets.

Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
 

Comments

Avatar

You’re crazy.  Not only would that team compete for the playoffs, that team would win the cup.  It’s not possible to assemble due to the salary cap, but that team would dominate offensively.  This team would lead the league in offense easily and all the scoring they would do would overcome any weakness in goal.

Gaborik - Hossa - Havlat
Sedin - Sedin - Kovalev
Gionta - Koivu - Cammileri
Tanguay - Lang - Sullivan
Cole, Pahlsson

Niedermyer - Ohlund
Komiserak - Beuchemin
Spacek - Morris
Scuderi

Rolosson
Khabibulin

Posted by Cartman on 10/05/09 at 12:28 PM ET

PuckStopsHere's avatar

It is a common mistake to over-estimate the future production of aging veterans.  Injuries and a natural decline with aging will bring their numbers well below the predictions that are often made.  For example we can look at last year’s UFA All Star Team.  When all was said and done, they were not so good.  I don’t think they would have been a playoff team.  This year’s team looks a little bit better, but I don’t think they are nearly as much better as you imagine.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 10/05/09 at 01:02 PM ET

Avatar

maybe so..

but if you gave me the two lists this time last year i still choose this years UFA team in a heartbeat.

Posted by iggsplode on 10/05/09 at 02:39 PM ET

Avatar

This “team” is only uncertain in its ability to compete and challenge for the Cup in the same way that, say, Washington’s or Pittsburgh’s or Detroit’s teams are - that is to say, anything can happen. 

On paper, that is a powerhouse of talent.  You can ask questions about how they’d gel or speculate about which one might slip a bit in terms of production, or bemoan the lack of role players, but there’s simply no team in the league that could compete with that one on a pure depth of talent level, save perhaps in net. 

While I don’t disagree with your “thesis” - that free agency is not nearly as important to a team’s fortunes, or as wise a method of construction to choose as building through smart drafting - the notion that this team is anything less than a powerhouse of talent is absurd.  Maybe you wouldn’t want to get stuck with this team 5 years from now, when most of the contracts are still in play and the players are well past their sunny-sides.  But right now?  That team would be a Cup frontrunner, no question.

Posted by Jon from Edmonton on 10/05/09 at 03:10 PM ET

Avatar

The problem with your thinking is you’re acting like last year’s list is similar to this year’s.  You can’t seriously believe they’re similar can you?  Last year’s list, out of the forwards only Hossa wasn’t an aging vet. 

This year’s list is completely different.  The sedins are still in their prime.  Hossa, Havlat and Gaborik are still in their prime, as well as camelleri.  The talent level b/w the two lists isn’t even comparable.  This year’s list would not only destroy last year’s list, they would destroy the league.

Basically, you’re using logic like because last year’s team was full of declining vets and probably wouldn’t make the playoffs, then that must mean the same is true of this year’s team without even acknowledging the difference between the two teams.  It’s just blanket statement stating this year has to be the same as last year.

Posted by Cartman on 10/05/09 at 05:08 PM ET

PuckStopsHere's avatar

I am arguing that you under-estimate how quickly these types of players go from the highly regarded guys they are today to being declining vets. 

The same comment is made every year - Last year"s team was a bunch of players in decline but this year is better.  Usually it doesn’t turn out that way - but next year’s team will be better.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 10/05/09 at 05:38 PM ET

Avatar

It would be interesting to generate the production of last year’s UFA team (games, goals, assists, penalties, plus/minus)—pro-rated of course for time on ice since not everybody can play 25 minute each—to give an idea of what that squad might have accomplished as a unit. Then that data can be used as a gauge or milepost to compare against the current and future UFA teams.

Posted by Matthew McCallum from Redding, California on 10/05/09 at 06:51 PM ET

Avatar

Cartman, while i agree with your defense and goalies, i think i would have my forward combos like this:

Hossa - Cammileri - Havlat
Sedin - Sedin - Gaborik
Gionta - Koivu - Kovalev
Tanguay - Lang - Sullivan
Cole, Pahlsson

Hossa cannot take a face-off

Posted by damji on 10/05/09 at 09:57 PM ET

Add a Comment

Please limit embedded image or media size to 575 pixels wide.

Add your own avatar by joining Kukla's Korner, or logging in and uploading one in your member control panel.

Captchas bug you? Join KK or log in and you won't have to bother.

Commenting is not available in this weblog entry.
Feed

Most Recent Blog Posts

About The Puck Stops Here

imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

Who am I?
A diehard hockey fan.

Why am I blogging?
I want to.

Why are you reading it?
???

Email: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

When learning from experts it’s best to learn personally from them, or from their blog. We can provide that with poker lessons blog, your home to learn poker personally.

Do you get shocked from the luck in the game of poker? Stop getting shocked and start being a Poker Shoker

high yield savings account






Donate to Kukla’s Korner